Nearly two-thirds of Democrats want Biden to withdraw: poll

(WASHINGTON) – Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say President Joe Biden should withdraw from the presidential race and let his party nominate a different candidate, according to a new poll, drastically undermining his post-debate claim that “Democrats midfielders” are still with him, even if some “big names” are turning against him.

The new AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, conducted as Biden works to salvage his candidacy two weeks after the debate collapse, also found that only about 3 in 10 Democrats are extremely or very confident he has mental capacity to serve effectively as president, slightly below 40% in an AP-NORC poll in February.

The findings underscore the challenges the 81-year-old president faces as he tries to silence calls from his own party to drop out of the race and tries to convince Democrats that he is the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump. The polling was mainly conducted before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. It’s unclear whether the shooting influenced people’s opinions of Biden, but the small number of interviews conducted after the shooting provided no early indication that his prospects had improved.

Meanwhile, as Vice President Kamala Harris receives additional scrutiny amid talk of whether Biden should withdraw, the poll finds that her favorability rating is similar to his — but the share of Americans who have an unfavorable opinion of she is a little smaller.

See more information: How Operation Ditch Biden Could Restart After the RNC

The poll provides some evidence that black Democrats are among Biden’s strongest supporters, with about half of those polled saying he should continue running, compared with about 3 in 10 white and Hispanic Democrats. Overall, seven in 10 Americans think Biden should drop out, with Democrats only slightly less likely than Republicans and independents to say he should make way for a new candidate.

“I have genuine concerns about his ability to hold office,” said Democrat Andrew Holcomb, 27, of Denver. “I think he’s frankly too old for the job.”

Janie Stapleton, a 50-year-old longtime Democrat from Walls, Mississippi, took the opposite view, saying Biden is the “best candidate” for president.

People aren’t just angry with Biden as they weigh his choices this election season.

About 6 in 10 Americans want Trump to withdraw — but relatively few Republicans are in that camp.

As for Biden, younger Democrats are especially likely to want to see him quit — and to say they are dissatisfied with him. Three-quarters of Democrats under 45 want Biden to drop out, compared with about 6 in 10 of those older.

“I feel like these two individuals are a sad choice,” said Alexi Mitchell, 35, a public servant who lives in Virginia. She identifies as a Democratic-leaning independent, and while she believes Biden is probably still mentally prepared for the job, she worries that the drop in support in recent weeks will make him a weak candidate no matter what happens next. “If he doesn’t have control over his own party, that’s a fatal flaw,” she said. “He’s put us in a bad position where Trump can win.”

Despite the Biden campaign’s optimistic speech entering the debate, the confrontation only left the president in a deeper hole. Democrats are slightly more likely to say they are dissatisfied with Biden as their candidate now than they were before his faltering performance. About half are dissatisfied, an increase from about 4 in 10 in a June AP-NORC poll.

In contrast, most Republicans — about 6 in 10 — came away from the debate very or somewhat satisfied with Trump as their candidate. Too few interviews were conducted after the assassination attempt to provide a clear indication of whether Republicans or Americans in general have rallied further behind Trump since then.

See more information: Republicans link murders, drug overdoses to Biden’s border policies on second night of RNC

David Parrott, a Democrat from Soddy-Daisy, Tennessee, was willing to give Biden the benefit of the doubt given the president’s age, but still expressed concerns about a potential second term.

“I don’t know if he can make it four more years or not,” said Parrott, a 58-year-old retiree. “Shouldn’t he be sitting at his beach house relaxing?”

All the recent unrest has left Americans much more likely to think Trump is capable of winning the 2024 election than Biden is — 42% to 18%. About a quarter felt that both men were equally capable of winning.

Even Democrats are relatively grim about their party’s prospects in November.

Only about a third of Democrats believe Biden is more capable of winning than Trump. About 3 in 10 think both are equally capable of winning, and 16% say victory is more likely to go to the Republican. By contrast, Republicans are overwhelmingly convinced that Trump is in the best position to win.

Trump also has an edge over Biden when Americans consider who is better able to handle a crisis, 38% to 28%. And people are evenly split on which candidate has the best vision for the country, with 35% saying Biden and 34% saying Trump.

Despite all the disenchantment that Biden faces, the president insists that it is not too late to change the situation, saying that previous presidents have recovered from a deficit at this stage of the campaign. In a Tuesday interview with BET News, he said many voters still haven’t tuned in, adding, “The thing is, we’re just starting game time now.”

The poll also offered a bright spot for Biden: 40% of adults say he is more honest than Trump, while about 2 in 10 think otherwise.

Most Democrats — about 6 in 10 — say Vice President Harris would be a good president, while 22% think he wouldn’t and 2 in 10 don’t know enough to say. The survey showed that 43% of American adults have a favorable opinion of her, while 48% have an unfavorable opinion. Slightly more have a negative view of Biden: approximately 6 in 10 Americans.

The poll was conducted before Trump selected Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate. He showed that for most Americans, Vance is still an unknown quantity. Six in ten do not know enough about him to form an opinion, while 17% have a favorable opinion and 22% view him negatively.

___

The survey of 1,253 adults was conducted July 11-15, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.