PPhilippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. would like to say that it doesn’t matter who wins the US elections in November, because his country will be fine with a second term for Joe Biden or Donald Trump. But he can’t.
“I think it would be astute to say that we are not closely watching the political cycle that is underway in the United States,” Marcos told reporters at a forum on Monday, just days after a historic trilateral summit in Washington to reinvigorate the strategic partnership between the USA, the Philippines and Japan. “I won’t deny that we looked. We certainly look at who will be in charge.”
The Philippines is far from the only country concerned about who will occupy the White House in 2025. Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that, wary of a Trump victory and renewed transatlantic tensions over his “America First” approach to foreign policy, European leaders are becoming more receptive to economic engagement and cooperation with China. And geopolitical observers have noticed that South Korea It is Japan are also concerned about Trump’s shaky commitment to security alliances, as they worry about threats from, respectively, North Korea and China – the latter whose interests in Taiwan as well as the South China Sea could see the Japanese islands caught in the crossfire of potential future conflicts.
Although Biden has built a network of defense relationships across Asia, skepticism about the reliability of the partnership with the US in surviving a change of administration likely stems from Trump’s attitude toward NATO. In February, the former President said he would encourage Russia “to do whatever it wants” with European treaty members who, in his opinion, did not contribute enough to the security alliance.
But experts tell TIME that the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy may actually be safer than most policies whether Washington is blue or red next year, because countering China is one of the few things that, even now, Democrats and Republicans seem to agree. Prioritizing. Collin Koh, senior analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, says that despite Trump’s unpredictability, it would be “unthinkable” for the US to abandon the strategic inroads the Biden administration has made in Asia, both in defense and economic partnerships.
“The bipartisan consensus on China has become increasingly strong,” says Koh. “Even if Trump wants to adopt a somewhat more isolationist policy, given the global challenges that exist, I am not so sure that those in the US Congress are willing to give up what they consider to be US global leadership in [the Indo-Pacific].”
See more information: Is Southeast Asia more tilted towards China? New research shows mixed results
Koh admits: “If Trump waits for us [allies in Asia] do more, then we could potentially be put in a very difficult situation.” But he and other experts doubt Trump will establish an administration that carries out such a change.
“If Trump is reelected,” says Derek Grossman, senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, “it will depend on the people in his administration.”
“Even though his statements can sometimes leave us scratching our heads,” says Ray Powell, director of SeaLight at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, “a lot of it really depends on who he nominates to key positions”.
“We’re not really sure who [Trump will surround himself with],” says Koh, “but I imagine your advisors will really impress upon you the importance of the Indo-Pacific.”
When administrations change, Powell says, there is always some change. But he still doesn’t see any reason to believe that Trump or a person appointed by his cabinet would significantly alter course when it comes to the U.S. approach to Asia.
“In fact, we have seen over the last few years, across the various administrations, that there has probably been more continuity than disruption in the U.S. approach to the Indo-Pacific,” says Powell, adding: “The large bureaucracies of the Department of Defense and the State Department tends to continue to move in the same direction it has been moving.”
Still, experts believe that the US’s partners in Asia will not throw caution to the wind and will take steps over the coming months to protect themselves from the risk of a US reversal.
“Efforts will be made to institutionalize aspects of its relationship with Washington, such as exchanges and military exercises,” says Kevin Chen, research associate at RSIS. “This would make it more difficult for future administrations to uproot or discontinue these activities.”
But such measures are the kind of thing the US – under Trump or Biden – would welcome, says Koh. “It’s good to have allies and partners participate in some of these exercises and, you know, create more interoperability, share the defense burden, share costs and all that,” he says.
“All countries should always be concerned when there is a change of leadership,” says Powell. “You’re always worried just because it’s something unknown.”
“But I don’t know that anyone in the Indo-Pacific should be unusually concerned.”
This story originally appeared on Time.com read the full story
