TThe Democratic Party appears to have received new hope following President Joe Biden’s decision on Sunday to drop out of the race and endorse Kamala Harris. She raised a record $81 million within 24 hours of announcing her candidacy, and by Monday night, Harris had secured enough support from delegates at the Democratic National Convention to win the Democratic nomination.
But even if Harris becomes the Democratic nominee at the August convention, concerns remain about her ability to compete in the general election against Donald Trump.
A slim majority of Americans have a negative opinion of Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight Vote. About 51% of Americans disapprove of Harris, compared to 38% who approve. Former President Donald Trump has a highest disapproval rate at 53%but 39% of Americans approve of it.
Election polls show Harris trailing the former president by a small but not insurmountable margin of 1.5 percent. points on average, according to analysis carried out by Washington Post from 11 different researchers. These numbers represent only a slight improvement over President Joe Biden, who is 1.9 percentage points behind Trump. However, all of these polls were conducted before Biden’s withdrawal announcement, and polls about the potential performance of hypothetical candidates are often inaccurate.
With those caveats, here is what some of the most respected research shows:
ABC News/The Washington Post/Ipsos: +2 Harris
ABC News, The Washington Post and Ipsos worked together to conduct a survey July 6-9 interviewing 2,431 U.S. adults. The ABC News/The Washington Post polls are ranked second on FiveThirtyEight’s list of top pollsters, after the New York Times/Siena College, which has yet to release a national poll on the Harris-Trump matchup.
His research uncovered that Harris outperformed Trump by 2 percentage points. This is better than Biden, who has the same polls as Trump.
The Economist/YouGov: +5 Trump
A poll conducted by The Economist and YouGov from July 13 to 16 found that Harris trailed Trump by five percentage points, performing worse than Biden, who trailed Trump by two percentage points. The survey sampled 1,582 adult US citizens.
Reuters/Ipsos: +1 Trump
Reuters and Ipsos conducted a survey on July 16, interviewing 1,202 adults living in the US following the attempted assassination of Trump. The poll found that the former US president narrowly edged out Harris by one percentage point. The same poll showed that Trump outperformed Biden by three percentage points.
Yahoo! News/YouGov: +2 Trump
Yahoo! News and YouGov conducted a poll from June 28 to July 1, after Biden’s failed debate performance but before Trump’s assassination attempt. The poll showed that Trump outperformed Harris by two percentage points, the same number he outperformed Biden.
The poll also found that while 38% of Democratic-supporting voters preferred Harris as Biden’s replacement, 42% believed someone else would be better suited for the nomination. The survey interviewed 1,754 American adults.
The New York Times/Siena College
The New York Times/Siena College survey is considered the most accurate in the country, according to FiveThirtyEight ratings. While they have not yet released a national poll on Harris versus Trump, polls in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Virginia from July 9-12 revealed that Trump led Harris by two percentage points in Pennsylvania but Harris beat Trump by five percentage points in Virginia.
This story originally appeared on Time.com read the full story
