How young people see the confrontation between two elderly people: From Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Policy Deska nightly newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News politics team on the campaign, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, senior political editor Scott Bland and national political reporter Ben Kamisar analyze a key new poll among young voters. Additionally, a critical milestone is reached in Donald Trump’s hush money trial.

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How young people see the confrontation between two elderly people

By Scott Bland and Ben Kamisar

The Democratic Party of the 21st century depends on large margins with young voters to win elections. And an important new set of data sheds light on what’s going on with a group that bristled at President Joe Biden but isn’t exactly ready to embrace former President Donald Trump.

If you take one thing away the new Harvard Youth Survey, is that young people are, well, the same as everyone else — that is, they’re divided by the same dividing lines about race and gender (and political involvement) that define the general electorate. Let’s dive into the research, which provides one of the most comprehensive analyzes of young voters out there.

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The poll shows Biden with an advantage, but not like in 2020. A series of public polls this election cycle, including from NBC News, have shown that Trump has essentially erased Biden’s advantage with young voters. That’s not what the Harvard poll shows: Biden leads by 13 points, 50%-37%, among registered voters aged 18 to 29 and an even wider lead of 19 points (56%-37% ) among likely voters. Still, it’s not at the 60%-30% levels that the Harvard poll showed for Biden at this point in 2020, which aligns with what exit polls revealed in the fall.

The more engaged, the more favorable to Biden. Not only did Biden’s margin shrink among the under-30 crowd, which transitioned from likely voters to registered voters, but the results show it narrowed even more among all respondents. This trend reflects broader polling and election data from this year showing that Biden fared better with regular voters and more engaged respondents than with irregular and less engaged respondents. This shows why 2024 could be more volatile than a rematch first appears, because the results of a close contest could depend on people not being extremely engaged.

Watch out for gaps. Young women, young people of color, and young people with college degrees are much more likely to support Biden over Trump than their male, white, non-degree counterparts. It’s a good reminder not to consider this (or any other!) constituency as a cohesive bloc to be won or lost, but as a complex and changing group, affected by a number of different factors.

This is just a sample of the data. See the full results here — and watch this group closely this year.

Trump’s historic silent trial seats 12 jurors, plus an alternate

By Adam Reiss and Dareh Gregorian

A full 12-person jury was selected Thursday for Trump’s secret trial in New York City, after both sides questioned nearly 200 potential jurors about whether they can be fair and impartial when it comes to the polarizing president. and the criminal charges against him. .

“We have our jury,” Judge Juan Merchan said after selecting the 12th juror. A substitute was also selected and five more still need to be chosen. “I’m hopeful we’ll finish tomorrow,” the judge said before swearing in the jury.

If that happens, opening statements in the first criminal trial involving a former president could begin as early as Monday.

The panel is made up of seven men and five women. Among the new hires on Thursday were a retired wealth manager, a speech therapist, a product development manager and a physical therapist. Among those inducted on Tuesday were a lawyer, a salesman, a teacher and a software engineer.

Jury selection came after a difficult start to the day. Two of the seven jurors who had already been sworn in were removed from the case in the morning.

The first was dismissed after she told the judge she was now worried she could not be impartial after friends, colleagues and family asked her if she was a juror in the case. The second was released after being taken in for additional questioning due to prosecutors’ concerns that one of her answers during questioning was not accurate.

After court adjourned for the day, Trump complained to reporters that he was supposed to be in states like Georgia, New Hampshire and North Carolina to campaign, but instead “I’ve been here all day” for a “ unfair trial.”

Read more about the third day of Trump’s trial here →

That’s all from The Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback – like or dislike – send us an email at newsletter@nbcuni.com

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