Welcome to the online version of From the Policy Deska nightly newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News politics team on the campaign, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar looks at our latest NBC News Deciders Focus Group series with Nikki Haley’s primary voters. Plus, senior national political reporter Jonathan Allen.
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Haley voters face a new choice with the same skepticism
By Ben Kamisar
For just over a week, the former president donald trump survived an assassination attempt, the President Joe Biden decided not to run for another term and Vice President Kamala Harris became the de facto Democratic candidate.
And yet, a new focus group of a key set of potential undecided voters – supporters of Nikki Haley in the Republican Party primaries in 2024 – illustrates how hardened opinions on the election are.
Those who applauded Trump for adopting a conciliatory tone in the wake of the July 13 shootings now feel that he has once again become the candidate they once opposed. Those who said they would vote for the Democratic presidential nominee in the fall were already on board with the party before Biden’s announcement. And those who were on the fence about the general election still feel stuck there.
The conversations – as part of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group series, produced in collaboration with Engaging, Syracuse University It is Sago – show that this group of voters, who voted against Trump’s Republican coronation earlier this year, are generally dissatisfied with their choices in the fall.
Three participants plan to vote Democratic again, just as they did in 2020. Currently, one of them plans not to vote. The remaining 10 focus group participants split their votes evenly between Trump and third-party candidates, reluctantly choosing the former president due to his broader support for Republican Party policies or choosing a protest vote to signal their frustration with the direction of the party.
“It may depend on where the tears fall in the vote to determine who I vote for,” said Audra B., 53, of Arizona, speaking about the choice between Trump and Harris. “I don’t like any of them, but I’m not going to stop voting either. Many women have come before me to ensure I have this opportunity, and I don’t want to waste that.”
After reviewing the major party candidates and third-party options, Audra said she currently plans to support libertarian Chase Oliver after voting for Trump in 2020.
Read more from our focus group →
Shapiro gains double boost in veepstakes
Governor of Pennsylvania Josh ShapiroThe administration’s vice presidential prospects are getting a boost from expected — and unexpected — places.
Emma Barnett and Brennan Leach report that Shapiro’s allies in the state are making an especially public and vocal push to elevate their governor as Harris begins her search. The Philadelphia Democratic Party, for example, explicitly endorsed the Harris-Shapiro ticket.
Former Rep. Bob Brady, chairman of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, said that with Shapiro on board, Harris would win Pennsylvania, a critical swing state.
“I don’t guarantee anything, but I guarantee this,” Brady said. “There is no doubt about it. We are so excited, so angry.”
Meanwhile, Republicans see Shapiro as their VP candidate likely to offer Harris a boost and make their efforts more complicated, report Allan Smith, Henry J. Gomez, and Katherine Doyle.
These Republicans say Shapiro could help broaden Harris’ appeal to independent voters and traditional Democrats who are turning away from the party, without completely alienating Republicans.
“I just think Shapiro is super strong,” said one Trump ally. “And Republicans should be concerned about this. If I were her, that would be the choice.”
The Most Important Factor in Harris’ Vice Presidential Search
By Jonathan Allen
Presidential campaigns like to appear noble in their selection of a running mate. They talk about criteria such as who is best suited to govern the country, who would be a good government partner and who can be removed from office without costing the party a seat in the Senate or a government.
But there’s only one factor that will matter when Harris makes her choice — especially if, as Democrats tell us, democracy itself is on the ballot: who is most likely to help her win.
Of course, this can be framed the other way around – which candidate does less harm – and often is. And part of that analysis must include whether voters think the vice presidential candidate is ready to lead.
But make no mistake: this is a cold, hard policy decision. Harris just saw her party force Biden out of the vote because of the threat of losing. She may be right that Democrats have the stomach for almost anything when it comes to defeating Trump.
What they won’t accept is choosing the best governing partner, someone with whom she has a personal relationship, a senator from a state with a Democratic governor or a governor from a state with a Democratic lieutenant governor, if that person costs them the White House . .
In the Trump era, voters in both parties have become much more comfortable and accustomed to raw politics. They expect it – and in some cases demand it.
In the end, there is little evidence that second place in voting influences many votes. But the choice can send important signals to the electorate about the presidential candidate’s judgment, values and decision-making process.
Harris has plenty of reliable options. What she doesn’t have is the luxury of sacrificing victory for anything else — for example, another Democratic Senate seat or a weekly lunch companion she likes.
Democrats are understandably ecstatic to have a high-energy new champion who could diversify the ranks of the American presidency. They will soon realize again that Trump is a tough enemy, that the economy hasn’t changed because of the change in the polls, and that they can’t afford to focus on anything other than winning.
More on Harris’ record:
More on the Harris coalition:
Today’s top news
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Netanyahu in DC: Biden and Harris with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Thursday as the government pushes for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. However, the pro-Palestinian protests that erupted during Netanyahu’s speech to Congress drew condemnation from Harris, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and others.
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Going back: Doug Emhoff’s daughter and ex-wife criticized JD Vance after comments resurfaced about him referring to Harris as childless.
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Rising: The US economy in the second quarter, a much faster rate than expected. As The New York Times writes, the economy could be in a very solid position for whoever assumes the presidency in 2025.
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Disinfo watch: Elon Musk’s App X fueled wild conspiracy theories this week that Biden was dead or dying.
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Beard Policy: A sitting president or vice president hasn’t worn facial hair in more than a century, Politico notes. Is Vance at the forefront of a new political trend or is he an aberration?
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