Democrats had a bright spot after several months of worrying about their electoral prospects: Their House candidates are flush with cash.
Both parties sought to accumulate cash as they prepared for a heated fight for control of Congress, and incumbents on both sides raised large sums. But Democrats in particular — despite being battered and bruised by weeks of chaos — have had remarkable fundraising success.
Last quarter’s Democratic challengers outperformed their incumbent Republican challengers in 17 of the the 29 districts controlled by the Republican Party that either party considers it competitive, according to a POLITICO analysis of Federal Election Commission data. In races with defined primaries, these Democratic challengers raised an average of $1.2 million – compared to an average of $965,000 raised by the Republicans they seek to expel.
That fundraising advantage, revealed in FEC reports last week, was a rare glimmer of hope for Democrats facing tough battles for the White House and Senate. They need to win just a few additional House seats to regain the majority, but Democrats have worried in recent weeks that President Joe Bidenthe country’s deep unpopularity would torpedo its chances.
After Biden ended his candidacy, Vice President Kamala Harris intervened and tens of millions of dollars began pouring into Democratic coffers. It remains to be seen how much of that money will end up helping the dozens of House races, and there is no guarantee that the shock will continue throughout the cycle, especially as Republicans aggressively seek to define Harris and tie elected Democrats to her.
Republicans say they’re used to being insulted, but the fundraising gap hasn’t grown enough to worry them. Furthermore, Republican Party incumbents benefit, on average, from greater war resources compared to their Democratic opponents.
But Democratic candidates and groups, breathing carefully and relieved, are encouraged by what they have seen in recent days.
“It’s a new beginning, different faces, a new moment. That’s true in New Jersey, but now it’s true nationally,” said Sue Altman, a first-time candidate running against the Republican congressman. Tom Kean on the battlefield of New Jersey’s 7th District. “For a time, our campaign provided hope when hope was hard to find elsewhere in the country, and that includes the presidential confusion. I think now, though, the snowball is rolling down the hill even more because now there is hope everywhere you look.”
Democratic challengers – but not Republican ones – are raising big money
At the party committee level, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outpaced its Republican counterpart by $7 million last quarter. And more than a dozen nonincumbent Democrats raised more than $1 million from April to June.
Many of them were repeat candidates and benefited from the name recognition and fundraising infrastructure of their previous candidacies — but others, like Altman and Oregon state Rep. Janelle Bynum, who is challenging Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemerachieved impressive results as first-time congressional candidates.
Four Democrats in Republican-controlled districts targeted by the DCCC raised more than twice as much as their Republican opponents in the second quarter:
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Rudy Salas, who is challenging Rep. David Valadão (Calif.) in a district that Biden won by 13 points in 2020;
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Adam Gray, who is challenging Rep. John Duarte (Calif.) in a district Biden won by 11 points;
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Josh Riley, who is challenging Rep. Marc Molinaro (RN.Y.) in a district Biden won by 4 points;
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And Janelle Stelson, who will face Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) In one district, Trump won by 4 points.
Salas, Gray and Riley ran in 2022. Stelson, a former TV anchor, is running for the first time.
What makes Democratic challengers’ strong fundraising particularly notable is that Republicans seeking to unseat Democratic incumbents in swing districts have not shown the same strength.
In 34 swing districts that Republicans are targeting or Democrats have said they are actively protecting, only one incumbent, Rep. Vicente González (D-Texas), was outraged — and is fending off a challenge from former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores, who held the seat in 2022 and 2023. In races where primaries are settled, the average Republican challenger has raised $404,000 , compared to $984,000. raised by the average incumbent Democrat.
The average Republican challenger had less than $500,000 in cash at the end of June, compared with $2.5 million for Democratic candidates.
There are still real challenges for Democrats
Democrats will still need to convert their strong fundraising into electoral victories, and they will continue to face real obstacles in doing so.
On the one hand, Democratic opponents have to catch up when it comes to their cash reserves. That’s money that will be important in the campaign’s most active period, and while Democrats have closed the gap in recent months, GOP incumbents continue to have an advantage, with just shy of $2.7 million in cash. on hand, on average, compared to more than $1.9 million on average for Democratic challengers.
It’s difficult to unseat an incumbent and money doesn’t guarantee a victory. And it takes money for non-incumbents to eliminate the built-in advantages of those already in Congress, who have a higher name tag, and get their message across to voters.
Republicans dismissed Democratic fundraising numbers, saying Republican candidates remain in a strong position in the final months of their races.
“Traditionally, Democrats always raise more money than our team,” Republican national campaign chairman Ricardo Hudson told POLITICO last week.
He noted that NRCC’s second quarter fundraising was the best ever between April and June of an election year and said he is “pleased” with the amount of money they raised.
“Our $37 million to $44 million, if we can keep that around, I’m not worried about it,” Hudson said. “We can’t let them get so far that they blow us out of the water, so we have to continue at this pace, we have to continue to raise money.”
The NRCC also boasted other statistics, such as its candidates supported by the President Mike Johnson surpassing his top midterm recruits in fundraising and cash on hand. The Republican incumbents designated as top defensive priorities by the NRCC slightly outperformed the DCCC’s endangered Democratic incumbents by just under $20,000 last quarter.
Republicans are also poised to be boosted by big outside spending: The party’s main House super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, had nearly $111 million in the bank at the end of June, compared with $88.6 million. from its Democratic counterpart, the House Majority PAC.
Democratic hopes rose after Harris took over Biden campaign
Down-ballot Democrats have been trumpeting gains — from interest in their campaigns to strong dollars — in the days immediately following the launch of Harris’ campaign for president.
After Biden endorsed Harris, the DCCC had its best online fundraising day of the cycle. Campaign arm of Senate Democrats I saw an impulsealso – also Coming off a strong quarter for Democratic Senate candidates compared to their Republican opponents. And the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which directs the party’s strategy for state legislative races, also posted record days in the aftermath of Harris.
A full picture of post-Biden fundraising won’t be clear until all congressional campaigns report their third-quarter FEC disclosures in October, but several Democratic congressional candidates have reported significant increases. Some campaigns in the Chamber and Senate saw an 800 percent increase in daily donations immediately following Biden’s decision. ActBlue, the leading Democratic donation processing platform, said it small-dollar donors donated more than $154 million for Democratic campaigns and groups, since the presidential race, within 48 hours of Harris’ campaign launch.
“Donors have clearly gotten the message that we need to flip the House because the presidential election is expected to be close,” said Brian Derrick, co-founder of Democratic Donation Processor Oath.
He said Democrats’ enthusiasm for Harris at the top of the ticket could help reject candidates in states that are not presidential battlegrounds but have competitive House seats, such as California and New York.
Dave Min, a Democratic state senator running in California’s open battleground 47th District, said that in the days since Harris’ campaign launch on Sunday there has been an acceleration of the fundraising momentum he saw in the second quarter. , when he raised about three times more than his Republican Opponent.
“We typically see a cyclical trend in our fundraising: it remains static for most of the quarter and then at the end of the quarter it picks up significantly,” said Min. “In the last few days, we have seen numbers that look more like those at the end of the quarter. . … That tells us there’s a lot of excitement around the change at the top of the ticket.”
And Will Rollins, a fellow California Democrat who is running for a second time to unseat the Republican congressman. Ken Calvert and raised more than $2 million in the second quarter, said it has raised six figures online since Sunday from more than 2,000 unique donors.
“I think it’s more than just a sigh of relief,” Rollins said. “It’s a feeling of excitement.”
