With less than 100 days left until voting in the United States, the 2024 presidential race has officially restarted.
President Biden withdrew just over a week ago. Democrats immediately chose Vice President Kamala Harris as their new de facto candidate. And now his Republican rival, former President donald trumpis returning to the campaign trail after surviving an assassination attempt earlier this month.
So what does the latest research say? Here are four key trends that have emerged since Harris took over from Biden at the top of the list:
Harris is tied with Trump nationally
The latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll — taken as Biden was about to end his campaign — was one of the first to test Harris versus Trump in this new environment. It showed them tied nationally at 46% among registered voters.
The previous Yahoo News/YouGov poll, which entered the field shortly after Biden’s damaging performance in the June 27 debate, placed Harris (45%) 2 points behind Trump (47%). Biden also trailed Trump by 2 points in that poll.
Subsequent national polls confirmed Yahoo News’ initial conclusion: that Harris is reversing Biden’s decline and breaking even with Trump. The New York Times/Siena College survey, for example, showed Trump leading Biden among likely voters by 6 points after the debate, 49% to 43%.
Now it has Harris with 47% against Trump’s 48%.
On average, Harris is researching a few points better than Biden was – while Trump’s numbers stayed the same. The result is a tighter race.
Harris is closing the gap with Trump in key swing states
Polls in swing states are more important than national polls; the path to 270 electoral votes runs straight through Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.
But they are also more complicated to conduct and tend to take longer. Therefore, new numbers are difficult to find now.
The data that has emerged, however, suggests a similar pattern to the national one: Harris on the rise.
Before Biden dropped out, most battlegrounds appeared to be slipping away from the Democratic nominee. Search averages calculated by the New York Times showed Trump leading by 7 points in Nevada; 6 points in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina; 5 points in Michigan; and 4 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump was even catching up to Biden in blue states like Minnesota and Virginia.
Yet a new round of Fox News polls suggests a better image for the Democratic ticket. In Michigan, Harris and Trump are tied at 49%; the same goes for Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Harris (49%) trails Trump (50%) by 1 point; in Minnesota, she leads by 6 (52% to 46%).
Meanwhile, in Georgia and Arizona, new polls from The Hill/Emerson College show Harris still trailing Trump — but by smaller margins than Biden. Earlier this month, the president fell into 40%-41% in both Sun Belt states; Trump was at 47%. Now Harris is in 44% in Arizona It is 46% in Georgiawhile Trump is at 49% and 48%, respectively.
In other words, both candidates gained a little ground. But Harris won more.
Harris is viewed more favorably than Trump
The biggest change since Harris replaced Biden as the de facto Democratic nominee has centered on favorable ratings.
In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted July 19-20 — immediately before the president’s withdrawal — 35% of Americans said they viewed Harris favorably, compared with 46% who said they viewed her unfavorably.
Just a week later, Harris’ numbers changed: 43% favorable to 42% unfavorable.
The same poll measured Trump’s rating as 36% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Before he dropped out, Biden’s rating was 32% favorable to 55% unfavorable – even worse than Trump’s.
Harris’ numbers improved most among independents, who went from 28% favorable (before she entered the race) to 44% favorable (after she entered the race). In contrast, just 27% of independents viewed Trump favorably in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll.
Again, early numbers suggest a similar trend in key swing states. According to This week’s Fox News polls, Harris now enjoys a higher favorable rating than Trump in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota; in Michigan, the two candidates are on equal footing, with 49% each.
Biden was viewed less favorably than Harris and Trump in all four states.
Democrats are more excited about Harris than Biden
Enthusiasm is the final piece of the voting puzzle. In February, the Monmouth University Research asked Democratic voters how “enthusiastic” they were about Biden as the candidate; only 62% said somewhat or very enthusiastically.
Trump’s number among Republicans back then? 80%.
Last week, ABC News/Ipsos asked essentially the same question about Harris. In that poll, 88% of Democrats now said they were enthusiastic – more than the 82% of Republicans who said the same about Trump.
Enthusiasm drives participation, of course. But it could also bring some hesitant demographics back into the Democratic fold.
The latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll offered some clues about Harris’ appeal. Compared to Biden, she was found to perform 3 points better among women, 7 points better among Americans ages 18 to 29, 7 points better among independents, 8 points better among Black Americans, and 13 points better among those who view Biden and Trump unfavorably (so-called double haters).
