As vice president Kamala Harris prepares to announce his running mate, a poll of The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that several of the leading candidates for the role are largely unknown to Americans. Arizona Sen. Marco Kelly stands out as the one with the most name recognition and highest favorability, especially among Democrats.
The poll, conducted after President Joe Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race and Harris became the likely Democratic presidential candidatehighlights the strengths and weaknesses that different politicians could bring to the ticket — and the challenges they could face if selected.
Kelly, although better known and liked than some of the alternatives, is still unfamiliar to about half of Americans. And others, like the governor of Pennsylvania. Josh Shapiro, although less known at national level, could count on deeper support in their states and regions of origin. Kelly and Shapiro are seen as among the front-runners, according to people familiar with the process, after Harris’ campaign began vetting about a dozen names.
Harris said Tuesday that she had not yet decided who the runner-up would be. But she, and whoever she chooses, will set out on a seven-state journey through key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina, next week.
Of the four potential Democratic vice presidential candidates included in the poll — Kelly, Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and governor of North Carolina. Roy CooperWho publicly withdrew considered after the survey is conducted – Kelly has the highest name recognition and favorability, according to the AP-NORC survey.
Americans are more likely to have a positive view of Kelly than a negative one. About 3 in 10 U.S. adults have a very or somewhat favorable view of Kelly, while about 2 in 10 have a negative view. Attracting more good feelings than bad is a relative rarity in presidential politics these days: Biden and former President Donald Trump have been viewed more negatively than positively for several years.
However, like many of the other contestants, Kelly is nowhere near a household name. About half of Americans don’t know enough to have an opinion about him.
But Democrats are especially likely to have warm feelings toward Kelly. Forty-five percent have a favorable opinion of Kelly. Only about 1 in 10 have an unfavorable view of him, and about 4 in 10 don’t know enough to say. Older Democrats — those 45 and older — are especially likely to have a positive view of Kelly, while younger Democrats are more likely to be unfamiliar with him.
He has proven to be a battle-tested activist, winning a special election in 2020 to wrest the Arizona Senate seat from Republican control and holding it two years later for a full six-year term. The Navy veteran is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and has been an influential voice among Democrats on immigration and border security, long a political vulnerability for Harris that Republicans have sought to exploit.
Shapiro is largely unknown to Americans and Democrats, except in the Northeast, where he has more name recognition and favorability. The poll found that 6 in 10 American adults — including 57% of Democrats — don’t know enough to have an opinion about Shapiro. About 2 in 10 Americans view him favorably, and a similar share view him unfavorably.
The picture is not very different among Democrats. About a quarter of Democrats have a positive view of Shapiro, while 16% have a negative view. Older Democrats are more likely than younger ones to have a favorable opinion of Shapiro, but overall the majority have not yet developed an opinion.
Shapiro was elected governor in 2022, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano – a controversial figure who drew opposition and criticism from members of his own party, including then-Republican Senator Pat Toomey.
Unlike the other candidates questioned in the AP-NORC poll, however, he is significantly better known — and well-liked — in his home region. In the Northeast, 4 in 10 American adults have a favorable view of him. Another 4 in 10, approximately, do not know enough to have an opinion about him, while around 2 in 10 northeasterners view him negatively.
Democrat Gary Hines, 68, of Philadelphia, was full of praise for his home state’s governor and added, “I would hate to see him go, because he’s just starting out in Pennsylvania.”
If chosen, Beshear would need to introduce himself to most of the country. About 7 in 10 Americans don’t know enough to have an opinion about him. Those who have a view are evenly split: 17% of U.S. adults have a positive view and 15% have a negative view.
However, Democrats have a more positive than negative opinion of Beshear. About a quarter have a very or somewhat favorable opinion, while about 1 in 10 have a negative opinion. Nearly two-thirds don’t know enough about Beshear to have an opinion.
A descendant of a well-known Democratic family in the state, Beshear defeated then-Gov. Matt Bevin — a deeply unpopular figure even in conservative Kentucky — was then re-elected in 2023 against Republican Daniel Cameron, a longtime protégé of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Beshear’s victory last year was credited in part to his advocacy for abortion rights, including a campaign ad that featured a sexual assault survivor attacking Cameron for his views.
Just like the other governors being discussed, Gov. Tim Walz doesn’t have much of a national profile – and that also means he’s a relatively blank slate. It was not included in the AP-NORC poll, but a new ABC News/Ipsos poll, which asked about favorability a little differently, found that about 9 in 10 American adults don’t know enough to have an opinion about him. Among sighted Americans, opinions are divided between positive and negative.
Walz, who also served 12 years in the House, moved up Harris’ list in recent days after coining “weird” as a new talking point to describe the Republican ticket. It’s a line now widely used by the vice president and other Democrats.
He currently leads the Democratic Governors Association.
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The survey of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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AP White House Correspondent Zeke Miller contributed to this report.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 elections at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
