LANSING, Michigan – Michigan voters could play an important role in choosing who will be the next president — and they could also determine which major party controls Congress in 2025. Next week’s party primaries in a open seat in the US Senate and two congressional races in the swing state will set the stage for November.
Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin has a clear path to her party’s Senate nomination, despite a challenge from a television actor. Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers has the endorsement of former President Donald Trump and the financial support of national Republicans in the race for his party’s nomination.
Slotkin and Rogers are trying to fill the seat long held by Democrats Senator Debbie Stabenow, who announced in early 2023 that he would not seek re-election. Democrats currently maintain a narrow margin in the Senate, but are defending many more seats in this year’s elections.
The political drama in Michigan also extends to the polls. Slotkin’s Senate bid puts a House seat up for grabs, one of two in Michigan expected to be competitive in November. With Republicans defending a narrow majority in the US House of Representatives, the results of the Michigan races could have national implications. And Michigan’s own Republicans are seeking to regain control of the state’s House of Representatives, lost in 2022.
Slotkin, a third-term U.S. representative from Holly, has positioned herself as the party front-runner with her fundraising and endorsement skills. It last reported about $8.7 million in cash on hand in mid-July and announced earlier this year that it plans to spend US$8 million in advertising in the weeks leading up to the general election.
Her only main competitor, actor Hill Harper, best known for his role on the television show “The Good Doctor,” grossed considerably less than her, more than $24 million.
Rogers, a former U.S. representative who was removed from retirement, has Trump’s support to fend off competitors, as well as the support of the National Republican Senate Committee.
Other Republican contenders include former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash and physician Dr. Sherry O’Donnell. Business man Sandy Penslerwho dropped out of the race and supported Rogers at a rally with Trump on July 20, will also be on the ballot because he dropped out too late.
Michigan Republicans have not secured a Senate victory in Michigan since 1994.
Rogers is far behind Slotkin in fundraising, raising more than $5.3 million and with about $2.5 million in cash, according to the latest campaign finance report. But national party groups set aside millions in advertising buys after the primaries, ahead of the general election.
The race reflected many aspects of the US presidential election. Slotkin campaigned on protecting and expanding reproductive rights, while Rogers criticized the Biden administration for its handling of border security.
Slotkin, who is Jewish and has extensive foreign policy experience as a former CIA analyst and Defense Department official, has at times faced criticism for not being tougher on Israel. Michigan has the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the country, and community support is critical in the state where nearly 100,000 people voted “disengaged” in February to protest President Joe Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris’ team is trying to change the narrative of the White House inherited from Biden and regain support from Arab American leaders in the Detroit area, especially in Dearborn, one of the only Muslim-majority cities in America. Slotkin threw his support behind Harris.
National attention will turn to Michigan as some of the most competitive congressional races in November could determine the makeup of the U.S. House as well as the Senate.
Slotkin’s foray into the Senate race opened up his congressional seat in central Michigan. Candidates from both parties were uncontested in the primary for the swing district.
In Michigan’s 8th congressional district encompassing Flint and Saginaw US Representative Dan Kildee retirement leaves the competitive position open. The Democrat who has represented the area since 2013 supported the state’s first term Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet to the position. They are also in the race Pamela Pughchairman of the state board of education, and Matt Collier, former mayor of Flint.
Paul Junge, a former TV anchor who lost by more than 10 percentage points to Kildee last year, is running on the Republican Party’s side. Also running are Mary Draves, a former chemical manufacturing executive at Dow Inc., and Anthony Hudson.
Detroit is likely to be without black representation in Congress for a second consecutive term after a court ruled that a former state senator and popular candidate did not present enough proposals valid signatures in the 13th congressional district.
Detroit, which is nearly 80% black, has maintained some black representation in Congress for nearly 70 years until 2023. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar faces two remaining primary challengers but holds a large monetary advantage over Mary Waters, a former state legislator who has served on the Detroit City Council since 2021, and attorney Shakira Lynn Hawkins.
Michigan Republicans are seeking to regain control of the state House of Representatives in November, with all 110 seats up for grabs. Democrats became the majority party in both chambers of the Legislature in 2022, spurred by redistricting and an abortion referendum on the ballot that same year. The Legislature passed several laws on Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s agenda the following year.
Early voting, new this year for Michigan thanks to a 2022 referendumbegan for the August primary election on Saturday, July 27th.
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Associated Press writer Joey Cappelletti contributed to this report.
