Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is locked in a tight race in Montana, while former President Trump boasts a wide lead over Vice President Harris in the state, new polls show.
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll puts Trump-backed Republican Tim Sheehy two points ahead of Tester, 48% to 46%. Another 5% are undecided.
Tester is one of this cycle’s most vulnerable incumbents, a rare Democrat holding office in a state that Biden lost in 2020, and his race could determine which party ultimately controls the upper chamber.
The poll also marks a change from March, when Tester boasted a two-point lead over his Republican opponent.
Because the split is within the poll’s 3-point margin of error, the race remains a statistical tie for the two rivals in the Senate race.
“The share of undecided voters decreased from 14% to 5% as November approaches, and Sheehy benefited from a six-point increase in support, while Tester’s support increased by just two points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director from Emerson Research University.
This week, Tester launched a “Republicans for Tester” group to rally support from all sides as he prepares for a competitive race in November.
At the top of the list, Trump is 15 percent ahead of Harris, but the vice president’s 40 percent support is a notable 5-point improvement over the 35 percent President Biden got in March.
Trump had the support of 55% of Montana voters, with another 5% undecided.
“Harris has gained ground among female voters – 47% support Harris compared to 40% who supported Biden, while Trump maintains about 61% support among male voters. Voters with college degrees have also changed; in March, they broke for Trump by seven points, now they broke for Harris by seven,” Kimball said.
When undecided voters are asked who they lean toward, Trump jumps to 58%, and Harris rises slightly to 43%.
Third-party candidates, however, are an obstacle for the Democratic candidate. With them added to the mix, Trump brings in 54%, while Harris’ support drops to 39%. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. brings 5% and another 3% are undecided.
The poll was conducted Aug. 5-6 among 1,000 likely voters in Montana and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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