Signs are emerging in recent polls that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates could pose problems for Donald Trump now that President Biden is not at the top of the ticket.
For months, polls predicting a three-way race with Trump, Biden and Kennedy showed mixed signals in terms of which of the major party candidates was most harmed by the independent’s presence. But often the Democratic candidate was the one who lost the most support.
But that has changed notably since Vice President Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, with many polls showing her performing better when other candidates are included in the race.
“With the showdown between Biden and Trump, this matchup seemed pretty consolidated, but the third party was a problem for Democrats,” said Democratic strategist Jon Reinish. “That is no longer the case – if we are to believe the data and if it appears credible.”
Kennedy added an additional layer of uncertainty to the presidential race when he launched his independent bid for president last October, after briefly running for the Democratic nomination against Biden.
A descendant of the most famous family in American politics, Kennedy’s relative prominence distinguishes him from typical third-party candidates, such as those running on the Libertarian and Green tickets, who typically receive no more than a few percentage points in a normal election.
Although Kennedy had for months not polled more than double digits at best, he was still performing considerably better than any other third-party candidate and sparking fears on both sides that he might act as a spoiler for Trump or Biden.
The polls were split from poll to poll and state to state as to which candidate was hurt most with Kennedy in the race, but overall, Biden appeared to be doing at least a little worse.
The national average from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill showed Trump in a slightly better position in a three-way race compared to just one race between him and Biden. On July 21, the day of Biden’s withdrawal, Trump led by 3.3 points in a direct contest, but by 4 points with Kennedy in consideration.
That dynamic has changed since Harris entered the race and saw an increase in momentum in the polls. She significantly closed the gap with Trump and in some cases took the lead.
In the national average from DDHQ and The Hill, Trump was ahead by 0.2 points on Friday, leaving the two essentially tied. But Harris leads by about 3 points in the three-way race, in which Kennedy averages just over 3 percent.
This is also the case for the averages of most of the main states in contention.
Kennedy was an unknown variable, as his political views span the entire political spectrum. He gained attention for questioning the effectiveness of vaccines and criticized online censorship, ideals that could speak to conservatives.
But he could also appeal to some disenchanted liberals because of his name and the fact that he is an environmental lawyer, even though he has changed on the right on the issue of climate change.
Strategists on both sides of the aisle said Kennedy, who is increasingly gaining access to the polls in several states, may not factor much in determining the outcome, despite the numbers. But they said polls showing Trump performing worse with Kennedy may have more to do with Biden’s absence from the race than anything else.
Republican strategist Zachary Moyle said some of Kennedy’s support came from Democrats who were upset about Biden being the nominee and wanted another candidate to be the choice. Now that someone else is in, some are back voting Democrat in November.
“The moment the Democrats or the Republicans appease that side, the third-party candidate then becomes a thorn in the other party’s side, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing in the polls right now,” he said.
Multiple researchers and states have shown that Harris improves when more than two candidates are included.
Even some early polls taken shortly after Biden dropped out and Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee showed a shift. One of the first national polls conducted entirely after Biden dropped out had Harris up 2 points directly against Trump but up 4 with Kennedy getting 8 percent.
An Emerson College/WHDH poll in New Hampshire, a state that Republicans began to hope was in play as Biden faltered, showed Harris up just 4 points late last month, still an improvement over Biden. But this advantage grew to a more comfortable 7 points, with third parties included.
An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Tuesday showed Harris leading among independents by 9 points, just ahead of Trump, but the lead grows to 11 points in a six-candidate race.
A poll from Wisconsin’s Marquette University Law School released Wednesday showed Trump leading Harris by 1 point, 50 percent to 49 percent, but Harris taking the lead by 2 points in a multi-person race with Kennedy, Libertarian Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and others. Kennedy received 8%, while the other third parties received 1% or less.
“I think this race has gone from an anti-Trump race to a pro-Kamala race, and that is a very important transition because the energy gap that existed before has largely been closed,” said Democratic strategist Basil Smikle.
Polls also showed an increase in Democratic involvement in the race, with more saying they flat vote in November and expressing confidence that the Democratic ticket can win.
Still, some polls have indicated that Harris may perform worse in at least some cases with other candidates in the mix.
An AARP poll in Georgia found that Trump and Harris were tied, but the former president had a 2-point lead with other candidates included. A poll in Arizona taken shortly after Biden dropped out showed Trump’s lead expanding in the state, with other candidates included.
Trump himself has shown some concern about Kennedy’s effect on the race. The two spoke by phone at the start of the Republican Party convention last month, in a call that was later leaked.
The former president appeared to suggest that Kennedy drop out and support him, saying, “I would love for you to do that. And I think it will be so good for you and so great for you. And we will win.”
And Trump criticized podcaster Joe Rogan on Friday after the host praised Kennedy. Rogan later clarified that he was not endorsing Kennedy, but merely expressing admiration for him.
Strategists said Biden’s departure gave wavering Democrats the alternative they were looking for so they won’t have to look elsewhere in November.
“The power of Harris, that as bad as we thought she was as vice president, as a candidate, she is much more acceptable to many voters than Joe Biden,” said Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe.
Roe noted that Harris could still be susceptible to third-party protest votes aimed at a candidate like independent Cornel West, who is running to the left of Democrats. He said voters who are particularly upset about Harris’ stance on the Israel-Hamas war could turn to a candidate like West, but she may be able to attract them by showing more openness to his position.
But some have questioned how much Kennedy will influence the race in November. Roe said Kennedy might “drop” a few points in one or two states but not affect the overall picture of the race.
“I think people like Ralph Nader and Jill Stein were a bigger risk than he is today,” he said.
Smikle said he believes Kennedy had more potential to hurt Trump than Biden, but he doubts Kennedy will be able to turn potential Trump voters away, given recent stories about him, including his admission of leaving a dead bear in Central Park a decade ago.
“I don’t think [he] will have any more significant impact on the Trump vote because of this troubling history, and I certainly don’t think that will be a problem for Kamala Harris,” he said.
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
