The results from a single congressional district in Nebraska could be critical in determining the outcome of this year’s presidential election, in what is likely to be an extremely close race.
The Cornhusker State’s unique system awards electoral votes in presidential elections to the winner of each of its three congressional districts, in addition to the winner of the statewide outcome. Unlike the rest of the ruby-red state, the 2nd Congressional District, which includes the Omaha area, has been a swing district in recent elections and could very well be the turning point for whoever wins in November.
Strategists have said that both President Biden and former President Trump will likely keep an eye on the district and may invest time there as the election approaches in order to gain a seemingly small but crucial advantage in the race to 270.
“You get a lot of attention from candidates running for high office in the United States because this one is up for grabs,” said Ryan Horn, an Omaha-based Republican media strategist.
Nebraska has distributed its electoral votes through this system since 1992, but it has only been electorally relevant in recent presidential election years. The first time Nebraska’s electoral votes were split occurred in 2008, when then-candidate Barack Obama (D) narrowly defeated the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the 2nd District by just over 1 point.
Before that, all of Nebraska’s electoral votes went to Republican candidates for decades. The district voted comfortably for Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) in 2012 and was up for grabs in 2016, but Trump narrowly managed to win the district over Hillary Clinton.
It then moved back into the black in 2020 to comfortably vote for Biden by over 6 points.
Observers expect the 2024 race will likely come down to just a half-dozen states that are most divided. And a race as close as this one could end up tipping towards the 2nd District.
Horn noted that both Trump and now first lady Jill Biden visited the district at the end of the 2020 election season, underscoring the importance of a district with an estimated population of around 650,000.
There is probably only one scenario in the Electoral College in which the district outcome could directly decide the winner of the election. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, Biden will be just one vote away from victory with 269 votes.
Maine is the only other state besides Nebraska that distributes electoral votes by congressional district. Maine is primarily a blue state, but its 2nd Congressional District voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
If that district votes again for Trump, then Nebraska’s 2nd District would be key. If you vote for Biden, he wins; but if you vote for Trump, the candidates will be tied at 269-269, and the House will decide the election.
While that situation is unlikely, experts say the vote is something both candidates want in their column.
“It’s not important enough to spend a lot of time worrying about this and campaigning for it, but it’s important enough that you can’t ignore it,” said Paul Landow, former executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party.
But the district could be ignored entirely in presidential politics if some Nebraska Republicans are successful in their efforts to convert the state to the winner-take-all system that most other states use. Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen (R) endorsed a bill to change the system earlier this month, and Trump was quick to praise him for supporting the legislation.
Proponents of the bill initially expressed optimism that they would be able to change the system before November, but the bill failed in a key procedural vote last month, before the end of the legislative session, and its prospects are uncertain.
Vince Powers, former chairman of the Democratic state party, said he expects the district to vote for Biden again this year. He pointed to a split within the Republican Party in the district, with the Republican Party of Douglas County, where Omaha is located, endorsing a right-wing primary opponent to Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a more moderate Republican who represents the district in the House, and censured Bacon last week without approval from the party chairman.
Powers said Biden will be the favorite to win it again and that Republican infighting will only hurt the GOP.
“I just can’t imagine such a large lead suddenly changing when there’s a divided Republican Party,” he said, referring to Biden’s 2020 victory in the district.
He added that he expects a “concerted” effort from the Biden campaign to win back the district.
Horn said he doesn’t think the effort to change the voting system will be successful, but called it “shortsighted” to what’s best for Nebraska.
“It’s nice to have the attention of both parties once every four years in the country’s premier race,” Horn said.
Landow said he doesn’t expect Biden or Trump to spend much time in the district, but he expects both to travel there at least once before Election Day. He said separating a congressional district from the rest of the state is historically relatively rare in presidential contests, but the vote is still attractive.
He added that Republicans have tried to change the state’s voting system in the past and will likely keep trying until they succeed or run out of time.
“That’s a way of life around here,” Landow said. “There is a fight for the blue dot every now and then.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
