President Biden’s decision to suspend an arms shipment to Israel is his most dramatic move so far in the war in Gaza – and it may end up pleasing no one.
Republicans criticized Biden for the decision, accusing him of abandoning Israel. Former President Trump made this argument, as did several Republican senators who held a press conference on the issue on Thursday.
Israeli politicians have expressed their displeasure – although it is questionable to what extent this matters in US domestic politics, given the growing disapproval among the American public for the military actions directed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government.
Key figures on the left welcomed Biden’s decision, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DN.Y.).
But Sanders argued that the arms delay should be the “first step” in a shift toward more vigorous opposition to “Netanyahu’s horrific war against the Palestinian people.”
In an interview with CNN this week, Biden said that if Israel proceeds with a full-scale invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah, “we will not provide the weapons and the artillery shells.”
The shipment that was stopped included 1,800 2,000-pound bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs – munitions that cause great devastation and, in urban areas, virtually guarantee a significant number of deaths.
The issue is literally a matter of life and death. But politics is also dizzyingly complicated.
There appears to be only a small likelihood that Biden will further tighten his containment toward Israel, although that could change if Netanyahu moves toward Rafah, where more than 1 million Palestinians are sheltering.
Biden’s earlier and more vigorous support for Israel’s actions could mean the die has already been cast for some voters. This applies especially to young people, progressives and voters of color – demographic groups that are more sympathetic to Palestinians.
Research highlights the dilemma. An Economist/YouGov poll released this week showed a clear plurality of the American public sympathizing more with Israel (32%) than the Palestinians (15%), while 30% said they sympathized equally with both sides and 23% said they sympathized equally with both sides. I am not sure.
But this situation was reversed among adults under 30, who sympathize more with the Palestinians by a ratio of more than 2 to 1. Democrats and black Americans also favor the Palestinians over the Israelis.
Many of those voters recoiled from Biden’s support for Israel’s seven-month assault on Gaza that has killed some 35,000 Palestinians, displaced about 80 percent of the population and created a humanitarian crisis.
Cindy McCain, head of the World Food Program and widow of 2008 Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), recently described the situation in northern Gaza as a “total famine.”
The Israeli attack is a reprisal for the October 7 attacks carried out by Hamas, which killed more than 1,100 people, most of them civilians. Around 250 hostages were taken, of which it is estimated that around 100 are still in captivity and alive.
State Department spokesman Matt Miller, asked at a press briefing Thursday by The Hill about criticism that Biden should have taken steps at an earlier stage to rein in Israel, said:
“Our policy responds to the real facts. We made it clear at the beginning of this conflict that we wanted to see Israel defeat Hamas. We wanted to see Israel dismantle Hamas and prevent its ability to launch the October 7 terrorist attacks again. They were largely successful in that goal.”
But Miller added: “We have also responded to the rising number of civilian deaths, and although we have seen the daily count decrease – because of the measures that Israel has taken and that we have asked for – it has not decreased enough.”
Responses like this underscore the complicated knot that Biden is trying to untangle.
His own affinity with Israel – he sometimes calls himself a Zionist – conflicts with an activist base that is much more skeptical of Netanyahu.
If Biden moves toward the more pro-Palestinian side of his own party, he will alienate his pro-Israel counterparts and open himself up to accusations from Republicans of being “soft” on terrorism.
Failure to do so will provoke more internal dissent among Democrats and further inflame the campus protests that have recently spread across the US. The US November elections are imminent, as is the possibility of disorder at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.
As if all this weren’t complicated enough, Biden has to deal with the fact that Netanyahu leads a coalition government almost universally seen as the most right-wing in the history of the State of Israel.
Following Biden’s weapons announcement, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a three-character tweet: “Hamas,” a heart symbol, and “Biden.” Ben-Gvir has previous criminal convictions for inciting racism and supporting a terrorist organization. He received an implicit rebuke for his tweet from Israeli President Isaac Herzog.
These complexities do not unduly bother Biden’s Republican critics. On Thursday, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) maintained that Biden’s “de facto position is in favor of a Hamas victory over Israel.”
The claim is considered absurd by many on the left, who note Biden’s vigorous support for the foreign aid package approved in Congress last month, which provided about $17 billion in aid to Israel.
There are no signs that events on the ground have helped Biden out of the political situation he finds himself in.
Negotiations in Cairo aimed at a ceasefire have broken down without agreement in recent days. Israeli forces would be putting even more pressure on Rafah.
And on Friday, the State Department’s delayed report on Israel’s conduct in Gaza emerged.
The document concluded that it was “reasonable to assess” that Israel violated international law in Gaza. However, it also concluded that “it is difficult to assess or reach conclusive conclusions about individual incidents” – a caveat that appears to eliminate obstacles to continued military aid.
It seemed like yet another example of the Biden administration giving almost everyone something to complain about.
The Memo is a column reported by Niall Stanage.
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
