President Biden’s poor poll results have raised questions about the possibility of a landslide victory for former President Trump in November, even as he faces his own political challenges following a conviction in a secret trial in New York.
A blowout wouldn’t look like President Ronald Reagan’s landslide re-election over Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984. But it could mean Trump would win more Electoral College votes than expected, flipping most, if not all, of the states Biden won in 2020 – and even expanding the map by turning some unexpected states, like Minnesota or Virginia, red.
While Biden faces stubbornly low approval ratings, some have speculated that Trump could perform much better than expected in November, with the former president himself optimistically suggesting he could win states like New York. But Trump faces his own obstacles, especially after becoming the first former US president to be convicted, and many political observers say it is impossible to predict what the election will look like in five months’ time.
“This could actually turn into a very close election, or Trump could continue to surge and Biden could continue to hemorrhage,” said GOP strategist Ron Bonjean. “Right now, we’re definitely at an inflection point where things could go either way.”
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll from April and a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll from last month showed Trump leading Biden in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden won each of these states except North Carolina in 2020 with 306 electoral votes.
Although Trump’s lead in the swing states is narrow, polls highlight alarm about Biden’s support. Even small gaps can have a big impact, as in recent cycles presidential elections have increasingly tended toward close contests decided by just a handful of states.
Candidates need 270 electoral votes to win. Biden won in 2020 with 306 electoral votes. Trump won in 2016 with 304. Former President Obama won in 2012 with 332 and in 2008 with 365, winning states such as Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio in the process.
But Indiana, Iowa, Ohio and Florida have turned more solidly red in the last two presidential contests, leaving fewer states up for grabs and potentially turning a close race into a true landslide.
Trump has projected confidence in the possibility of flipping some traditionally blue states, such as Minnesota and Virginia, where the White House candidates are separated by single digits.
Polls would still need to change significantly to make upsets in those states more likely, but Republican strategist Jimmy Centers said that is not beyond the norm-defying former president’s reach.
Still, the guilty verdict handed down in Trump’s Manhattan criminal trial last week may have further complicated his path to success in November.
In a Quinnipiac survey before the verdict, 6% of Trump voters said they would be less likely to vote for the former president if he were convicted.
A YouGov poll taken after the ruling concluded that 27% of independent voters were less likely to vote for Trump – but 21% were more likely.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 50 percent of Americans thought Trump’s guilty verdict was correct and 49 percent said he should end his presidential campaign as a result.
But other polls consistently found that many voters said the outcome of the trial would have no impact on their vote in November.
Trump has gained momentum in his legal battles so far, including three other criminal charges and several lawsuits, and some Republicans believe the conviction will only further energize his base.
Democrats predict Trump’s legal troubles will turn off voters on the fence in the battlegrounds he pursues.
“I think Republicans are flooding the zone with what they want to be true — that Trump’s guilty verdict is actually good for him,” said Democratic strategist Jon Reinish. “After all, we are in the Trump era and up is down and down is up.”
“However… I don’t see a world where gravity doesn’t exist and being a convicted felon helps win the White House, the path to which is the suburbs and independent voters who live downtown.”
Meanwhile, Biden faces frustration within his own party due to the war between Israel and Hamas, in addition to frustration with the economy and general apathy among voters regarding a rematch between Biden and Trump. He easily secured Democratic approval but was hit by notable protest votes in several state primaries, with a “noncommittal” push in Kentucky siphoning 18 percent of the party’s vote last month.
There is “a lot of concern” among Democrats about the incumbent’s low approval rating, tight state numbers and protest votes, said Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins.
“Anyone who says it’s just a minor concern is lying. This is an important election… and that’s why Democrats are nervous,” he said.
“I think that electorally it will be a close contest because of the polarization of the country and the undecided states. The math itself, I think, will be relatively close,” Hopkins said, arguing that “the popular vote is where we’ll see a surge” for Biden.
The 2020 election was the ninth consecutive run for the White House in which the national popular vote margin was in the single digits. Twice in the last 25 years, the candidate who won the national popular vote lost in the Electoral College, a feat that last occurred in the 19th century.
“All indications we have are that this election will be close, just like the last one, the one before that, and the one before that,” said David Hopkins, an associate professor of political science at Boston College. “In terms of expanding the map, this is a classic early summer campaign speech.”
A presidential forecast model from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ currently predicts that Trump has a 56 percent chance of winning the election, while national polling averages have the former president with a lead of about 1 point.
“It’s going to be difficult,” Centers said, and the impact of the verdict “remains to be seen,” with Trump’s sentencing still up in the air.
At the same time, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine appear to have no end in sight, and developments on the international scene could unsettle things for Biden in the coming months.
“I think a blowout is unlikely, but a lot could happen in the next five months,” said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.
“What’s going to happen to the economy, what’s going to happen in foreign policy, what’s going to happen in the world, what’s going to happen at home – none of these things are terribly predictable, but they can all have an impact, individually and collectively, on the result of the race.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
