President Biden is running out of time to fulfill his goal of ending Israel’s war against Hamas and implementing a mega-deal to reshape the Middle East toward peace.
The administration is focusing all its efforts on first getting Hamas to agree to a three-phase ceasefire agreement that would immediately establish at least a six-week pause in fighting in the Gaza Strip.
But Hamas’ counterproposals have contributed to weeks of back-and-forth and are testing the mediators’ hope and patience — and raising questions about what Plan B is.
“I’m not sure how many more days I’ll have to say, ‘Well, I still have hope’ — within this framework,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, during a roundtable with reporters on Tuesday hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.
Biden sought to exert international pressure against Hamas, ensuring support from the Israeli government; approval from the United Nations Security Council and an endorsement from the Group of 7 countries and Arab and Gulf States in a proposal he presented on May 31.
The first phase of the proposal includes a temporary ceasefire in which Hamas would release in batches the 120 Israelis it abducted from Israel on October 7, pending Israel’s commitment to release Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons. Supporters of the ceasefire agreement say it is imperative to increase humanitarian support for Palestinians and alleviate suffering marked by displacement, hunger and desperately needed medical care.
A group of Israeli families of hostages held by Hamas supported Biden’s ceasefire proposal. Andrey Kozlov, one of four Israelis rescued from Hamas captivity in early June in a daring and deadly operation, called for a ceasefire to secure the release of the remaining hostages.
“For the hostages still in Gaza, there is one decision, only one, and it is the agreement between Israel and Hamas,” he said in a statement. video message published last week.
Warner placed the blame on Hamas leader hiding in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, describing him as having a reputation as a cold and calculating leader and which supposedly visualizes the tens of thousands of Palestinian victims in the war as “necessary sacrifices”.
“This is the kind of leader who defends the notion of the Palestinian people, but doesn’t give a damn how many Palestinians die in this conflict,” Warner said.
Biden’s priority plan is to take advantage of the first weeks of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to negotiate a permanent end to the war, establish new governance in Gaza and chart a path towards a Palestinian state. These commitments would then allow Saudi Arabia to establish ties with Israel as a broader security group against Iran.
Warner said efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia “absolutely” depend on first reaching a ceasefire.
Barbara Leaf, assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, described Sinwar as a “psychopath” and “messianic” but said mediators are in “intensive discussions” to bridge gaps between Hamas’ proposed changes and the proposal to cease -fire.
“We ultimately believe that this proposal is the best path to ending the conflict now, which would enable a multitude of things and which would ultimately offer the prospect of a total end to the conflict,” she said in a Senate Foreign Relations event. subcommittee hearing on the Middle East on Tuesday.
‘Reality has a way of intruding’
Sinwar’s obstinacy is just a challenge to the Biden administration’s grand plan.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, blamed by some Democrats in Congress as responsible for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, attacked the Biden administration in a video for what he said was an “inconceivable” decision to delay the delivery of US weapons and ammunition.
Biden officials rejected Netanyahu’s characterization — the president halted a shipment of heavy bombs to Israel — but the episode underscored the tense tensions the U.S. has had with the Israeli leader over the course of the war.
Netanyahu’s critics accused him of prioritizing the military operation against Hamas to the detriment of diplomacy, and US and Israeli officials also criticized the prime minister for not talking about which authority could govern Gaza instead of military control. Israeli.
“We are potentially weeks, maybe a month or two away from the end of formal military operations and it is extraordinary that we have no viable plan from the Israeli government for what comes next,” said Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Chairman of a Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee that oversees the Middle East, pressing Leaf on the administration’s involvement with Israel.
“There is still insufficient planning, to say the least, on the part of the Israeli government,” Leaf responded.
Netanyahu has rejected any talk of the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority reasserting rule in Gaza, generally rejecting the idea of an independent Palestinian state that would link both territories.
Still, Netanyahu has at times signaled openness to some kind of civilian government authority for Palestinians in Gaza. He spoke about Israel maintaining freedom of military movement to address security threats, but presented ideas about Arab countries taking responsibility for some aspects of the territory’s security.
Leaf, responding to criticism that Arab and Gulf countries are unlikely to step up responsibilities to help stabilize the situation with the Palestinians, said there is “no magical thinking” on the part of the administration.
“This goes to the heart of the policy of each of these governments and of the Palestinians, and also of the Israelis. But I think reality has a way of putting pressure on even those who can’t imagine a concept like [Palestinian Authority] Returning to Gaza, reality has a way of intruding,” she said.
Leaf said he will likely go to the Middle East this weekend to continue discussions with Israeli, Arab and Gulf partners in the next day’s scenario.
“There will have to be a political alternative and that is what we are in the process of bringing these concepts together,” she said.
Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he is also involved in discussions to bring regional partners on board for a “day after” scenario.
“I have had individual and collective discussions with the Saudis, with the Emirates, with the Jordanians, with the Egyptians, with the Qataris, they have all shown signs of interest in participating… including governance issues, including economic issues and those types of issues,” he told a roundtable of reporters last week.
“There are many blank spaces that have not yet been filled, many volunteers who are willing to take a step forward, as long as the conditions are met, that there is true peace in the region and that there is a commitment to move forward. forward to two states,” he said.
Saudi Arabia is a key ally on the path to peace
Biden has cultivated Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as a key ally in boosting any prospect of a lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians — provided a ceasefire can be implemented to begin with.
The president has long abandoned his campaign promise to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state, recognizing along with Democratic and Republican lawmakers that closer ties with Riyadh are part of a larger effort to combat Iran and weaken influence of China and Russia in the region. .
Regional military cooperation to combat an Iranian missile attack on Israel in April served as a real demonstration of the defensive power that unites the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia, along with other partners.
The Saudi crown prince is focused on securing a mutual defense treaty with the US and assisting in building a civilian nuclear program. This agreement depends on the establishment of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which, according to Prince Mohammed, can only happen if there is an Israeli commitment to agree to recognize a Palestinian state.
“In meetings with MBS [Prince Mohammed]I saw someone who I think was prepared to make the decision – if we got this defense alliance with the United States – would stop trying to play both sides against the middle, and I think that’s in America’s best interest,” Warner said. .
Everything or nothing
Biden officials and their allies in Congress say all parties to this megadeal must move forward together or not at all — the ceasefire, the morning-after plan, a path to a Palestinian state and normalization between Israel and to Saudi Arabia.
Hamas has not made public its changes to the ceasefire proposal presented by Biden on May 31, but the disagreement appears to be related to Hamas’ demand for an Israeli commitment to a total end to the war and the withdrawal of Israeli troops. Netanyahu said a total end to the war can only happen through negotiations, the so-called Phase 2 of Biden’s three-phase deal.
Warner, while raising doubts about Sinwar’s commitment to negotiate, projected some optimism that a ceasefire could be reached based on experiences throughout the war. But he also warned about how quickly negotiations could collapse.
He described a moment in early May when Hamas and Israel appeared ready to reach a deal, but a Hamas rocket attack killing three Israeli soldiers triggered the collapse of negotiations.
“We’ve come close so many times, but at that moment when this was just a blip in the news, it was probably the moment we were closest when Israel leaned in, I think Hamas was ready, and there happened to be a random attack that killed three [Israeli military] soldiers,” he said.
“As of the last few weeks, the blame falls on the leadership of Hamas, Sinwar in particular,” the president said.
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
