Doug Sosnik, a longtime Democratic strategist who served as former President Clinton’s political director, said in an op-ed Friday that President Biden’s path to recapturing the White House “has all but disappeared.”
“President Biden spent much of 2024 with a more challenging path to winning a second presidential term in November than Donald Trump,” Sosnik said. said in the New York Times article. “But for reasons that have become apparent, that path has all but disappeared.”
Sosnik’s op-ed comes as Biden faces intense political headwinds following his dismal debate performance last month. The debate sparked increased concern among voters about Biden’s age and a growing list of House members calling for his resignation.
“I have never seen such a bleak Electoral College scenario for Mr. Biden: Not only does he face losing swing states he won in 2020, but he also risks losing traditional Democratic states like Minnesota and New Hampshire, which [former Secretary of State] Hillary Clinton and [former President] Obama carried it,” Sosnik said. “If current trends continue, Mr. Trump could achieve one of the most decisive presidential victories since 2008.”
Biden and his advisers have tried to calm the fears of those in his party who were panicking that he would lose to Trump, apparently with little success so far.
At a press conference Thursday night, Biden said he believes he is “the most qualified person to run for president.”
“I believe I am the most qualified to govern,” he later added. “And I think I’m the most qualified to win. But there are other people who could also beat Trump. But everything starts from scratch. And you know, we talk about money raised. We’re not doing bad.”
“So let’s start there, #1,” he continued. “The fact is that I consider myself the most qualified person to run for president. I beat him once and I will beat him again.”
However, Sosnik said even the campaign’s best hope for winning the Electoral College — winning the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — was an uphill battle.
“Each of the three states presents specific challenges for Mr. Biden. Current polls show him trailing Mr. Trump by as many as five points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and most narrowly in Michigan,” he said. “The deficit in Pennsylvania must be particularly disconcerting for Mr. Biden and his campaign, given the time and resources devoted to the state.”
Sosnik noted that Republicans are directing more of their campaign spending to these three states and that time is quickly running out for Democrats to make a change.
“If Mr. Biden has any chance of defeating Mr. Trump and not bringing down the Democratic Party with him, he must demonstrate in the coming weeks that he has the mental and physical capabilities to lead the county for another term,” he wrote.
Biden and Trump are separated by just 1 point in the average of national polls conducted by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, with the former president at 44.9% and the current president at 43.9%. On this average, Biden is slightly above Trump in Michigan and below 1 point in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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