President Biden is out of the 2024 race and is backing Vice President Harris to take office in November, raising questions about what polls can help us discover about his chances against former President Trump in November.
Although Harris still needs to win enough delegates before the party’s national convention next month to win official approval, she is the heir apparent now. This will come as a relief to many Democrats who have been alarmed by Biden’s dismal poll numbers in recent weeks.
But the vice president would face her own challenges if she faced Trump, according to the latest polling averages from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and The Hill.
Trump, who officially accepted the Republican nomination at the GOP convention last week, leads Harris by 2 points, according to the aggregate of national polls, 47 percent support to 45 percent. That’s about the same as Trump’s 2.5-point lead over Biden, with 46 percent support to the current president’s 43.5.
With independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the mix, Trump boasts a 6-point lead over Harris, 43% support versus 37%, while Kennedy sits at 6%.
The vice president’s favorability is 38%, slightly lower than Biden’s 41%.
“His national preference mirrors Biden’s — it’s not great,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science at DDHQ, a week before news of Biden’s departure broke. “Her advantage, though, is that she doesn’t have all the baggage that Biden has, and voters will look at her in a new way.”
Trump’s 2-point lead over Harris in the averages is down notably from about 8 points at the start of the year, and other recent polls give his supporters some reason for hope.
On a Economist Research/YouGov held in mid-July, about 8 in 10 Democrats said they approve of Harris becoming the nominee if Biden withdraws, and a little more than a quarter said they think she would be more likely than Biden to beat Trump.
A CBS News pollreleased last week found Harris performing better than Biden against Trump, with Harris trailing by 3 points and Biden trailing by 5 points.
A CNN poll released after the first presidential debate, during which Biden’s disappointing performance renewed talk of dropping him from the ticket, found that Harris was closer to Trump than Biden. She was just 2 points behind the former president, while Biden was 6 points behind.
Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi Inc. put the vice president ahead of Trump by 1 point in a poll published earlier this month.
Harris is also “the easiest” among prominent Democrats to suggest as a hypothetical nominee to take Biden’s place, given the mechanics of the process, Tranter said.
She is best positioned to take over Biden’s campaign apparatus and the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) fundraising system without excessive legal complications, strategists noted, and her agenda is already obviously aligned with Biden’s.
The vice president is also 59 years old, more than 20 years younger than Biden, and is also a woman of color — attributes that could appeal to key demographics within the Democratic base.
“When you have a young black woman on the ticket instead of Joe Biden, it really eliminates a lot of the arguments that Republicans are going to use against [Biden],” said Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins. “She has the ability to take advantage of all the positive aspects of her background without her health being the main focus.”
At the same time, hypothetical Trump-Harris polls in individual states indicate a tough fight. Biden trailed Trump in several key battlegrounds before dropping out of the race, and the latest numbers suggest a similar climb for Harris.
Trump boasts a lead of about 9 points in Nevada, 7 points in Arizona and 6 points in Georgia, according to DDHQ averages.
Trump is up 4 points in Pennsylvania, 1 point in Wisconsin and less than half a point in Michigan – while Harris takes a 3-point lead in Virginia.
Overall, though, there still isn’t a lot of polling data testing a Harris-Trump race, either nationally or statewide, and these averages are based on six polls or fewer in each state.
DDHQ’s forecast models should go dark for a few weeks to collect more data, the team said, given the historic shift in the race.
The speculation drew the attention of new media and voters to Harris, suggesting scrutiny that would only intensify if she actually took Biden’s place as the party’s nominee. It’s not yet clear how increased media attention could impact poll numbers.
Attention has already turned to the question of who could join Harris as her running mate — and while Trump’s pick for vice president isn’t expected to hugely influence voters, the decision could have more of an impact on a running mate. Harris.
Tranter argued that the spotlight offers Harris “an opportunity to redefine herself.”
“I don’t expect the polls to show that she’s beating Trump right away, but she’ll have a whole campaign and a fresh start, she won’t have to answer questions about whether she’s mentally ready to serve,” he said of the possibility of her becoming the one indicated.
Harris now needs to secure the support of the more than 3,800 delegates Biden won during the primary process as the party heads to the Democratic National Convention, scheduled for August in Chicago. While most Democratic delegates have pledged to choose Biden, they are not obligated to do so in the unprecedented event he steps aside.
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
