President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the elections freed up time to focus on securing a legacy ceasefire in the Middle East and an agreement to return hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
But it’s unclear whether his new status as a lame-duck president will eliminate his influence over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders, who know a new president will enter the White House in six months, or strengthen Biden’s hand by freeing -the political calculations of the campaign.
“It’s a double-edged sword. The influence has decreased, but it has also increased because there are no re-election issues — so he is a freer agent,” said Rep. Chris Smith (RN.J.), senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
“But will he be heard less because of this? So I’m not sure Netanyahu will accept anything that comes from him.”
Parties to the complex Middle East negotiations, including the Palestinians and Arab partners, will also want to know that any guarantees America makes under Biden will not be destroyed if former President Trump wins in November.
Biden, in addressing his decision not to seek re-election, said he will “continue to work to end the war in Gaza, bring home all the hostages and bring peace and security to the Middle East and end this war.”
Of the 115 hostages still held by Hamas, eight are Americans. The number of people alive or dead is not fully known, but Hamas is holding the bodies of hostages as a way to leverage negotiations.
The US is leading intensive efforts to bridge gaps between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and hostage release agreement. The talks are expected to bear fruit next week, a senior administration official told reporters earlier this week.
Netanyahu, who is widely seen as preferring Trump in the White House, has been accused of slow ceasefire negotiations to preserve his position as prime minister. Far-right members of his party, who oppose a deal with Hamas, have threatened to overthrow his government if a deal is signed.
But the White House has said it does not see Netanyahu as an obstacle.
“If I’m talking to you a month from now, and we’re still where we are now, I might draw a different conclusion,” the official said when asked whether Netanyahu is delaying negotiations. “But that’s certainly not the case now.”
Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, pointed out that the biggest question mark in reaching a ceasefire agreement is the mindset of Hamas Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the attack. October 7th terrorist attack. attack believed to be hidden from Israeli forces in an underground tunnel system in Gaza.
Although the CIA has assessed that Sinwar is under pressure from his own military commanders in Gaza to agree to a ceasefire agreement, al-Omari – who served as a senior Palestinian negotiator with the Clinton administration – described these reports as speculative.
“Without the hostages, he becomes very, very vulnerable personally,” he said. “This is the only card Hamas has, and I suspect they will be very reluctant to do it, and I’m not sure if he is susceptible to the kind of pressure from the Qataris, the Egyptians or the Hamas leadership in the diaspora – he is pierced. in some tunnel, his calculations are very, very difficult to guess.”
But there is still a belief that America wields unique power. Aviva Siegel, who was held hostage by Hamas for 51 days, said her husband Keith initially hid from Hamas that he holds American citizenship, believing he would be separated from his wife and released early.
The first hostages released by Hamas in October were two American citizens, part of a proof of concept for a broader hostage release that occurred in late November. Aviva Siegel was released as part of this agreement, which included civilian women, minors and citizens of other countries.
“We need Biden to rule the world, not terrorists to rule the world, and for us to be strong enough to get them out,” Siegel told a roundtable of House lawmakers this week.
Biden has the advantage that there is virtually no light on policy with Vice President Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, and that even Trump is calling for the immediate release of the hostages and an end to Israel’s war.
“They are being decimated by this publicity,” Trump said of Israel in an interview with Fox News on Thursday, before his meeting with Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.
“I would make sure it was over quickly; you have to end this quickly,” Trump said when asked what he would do differently. “It can’t go on like this. It’s too long, it’s too much, you have to get the hostages back.”
There is historical precedent for lame-duck presidents to achieve consequential policies related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Al-Omari referred to the dialogue established by then President Reagan with the Palestine Liberation Organization in the final months of his presidency – despite federal law prohibiting such communication – which continued for some time during the George HW Bush administration.
And although President George W. Bush rejected President Clinton’s parameters for Israeli-Palestinian peace established in December 2000, al-Omari said the document served as terms of reference for future peace talks and paved the way for US policy that calls for a two-state solution.
But the reality on the ground now is very different from that of the early 2000s and the Obama administration.
Biden has laid out an ambitious, multifaceted plan for Middle East peace that begins with a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, eventually leading to ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia — building on the Trump administration’s brokering of the Abraham Accords that establish ties between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
But Netanyahu’s rejection of a Palestinian state, a position shared by many in his government, is a major obstacle to opening ties with Riyadh.
“It is very possible that Biden will launch a challenge to Netanyahu in which he sets out the opportunity for peace with Saudi Arabia, but also demands that Israel recommit to a Palestinian state,” al-Omari said.
“It is something that could lay the foundation for one of the most important developments in the history of the Middle East. And frankly, for Trump, he could see it as a continuation of the Abraham Accords, which are part of his legacy.”
With the Israeli Knesset, its parliament, going on a three-month summer break next week, now could be the time when the prime minister could agree to a six-week ceasefire for the release of hostages, without trigger a coup d’état among the right. members of your coalition.
“A recess in the Knesset insulates Netanyahu from a vote of no confidence from coalition partners Itamar Ben-Gvir or Bezalel Smotrich, who have threatened to end Netanyahu’s coalition if there is a deal,” Aaron David Miller and Adam Israelevitz, fellows at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in a piece for Foreign Policy.
Even though Biden’s ceasefire agreement requires negotiations on a permanent end to the war to take place about three weeks after the start of the truce, Netanyahu called on Israel to maintain “superior security control” for the foreseeable future.
“As long as Netanyahu can maintain his coalition during the Knesset recess, the first call for new elections will be in early 2025 – conveniently aligning the Israeli and US political calendars. In fact, Netanyahu would then be in a position to adjust his strategy and tactics based on who will be the next US president,” Miller and Israelevitz wrote.
To further complicate the situation, Saudi Arabia’s openness to normalizing ties with Israel depends on the US signing a mutual defense pact, a treaty that is expected to require Senate approval and considered to have the best chance of Democrats joining. under Biden, as opposition to a potential President Trump.
There are only a few legislative days on the calendar to continue the process of vetting a treaty and bringing it to a vote, but Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called it feasible.
“It’s an interesting thing – things can move at the speed of molasses, or they can move at the speed of light here. There is always time,” Cardin told The Hill earlier this week.
“I know that a lot of work has been done on normalization and that there is a path forward if we achieve stability in the Middle East. Therefore, a lot depends on the timing of the path forward to peace. And I think if that happens, you could see some progress later this year.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
