With Republican Kari Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) on track for respective primary victories on Tuesday, both parties are watching closely to see how the recent change at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket could alter the Senate from Arizona. race in November.
Both parties see an opportunity to make inroads in the race. While Republicans have been largely pessimistic about the controversial Lake’s ability to appeal to a broader swath of the electorate, some believe Harris — who has been attacked by the right across the border — could help her vote no.
Meanwhile, Democrats are hopeful that if Harris chooses Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D) — who has proven attractive to both Democrats and independents — as her running mate, Gallego could follow her campaign’s lead.
As Stan Barnes, a former Republican state legislator from Arizona, posited: “Which is more powerful: the difficulty that a Trump-oriented enthusiast like Kari Lake has with that middle voter, or the difficulty that Congressman Gallego [has] selling support for Kamala Harris and trying to explain where the Democrats have been on the border?”
Gallego and Lake are preparing for a high-stakes election in November as the two angle to retire Sen. Krysten Sinema’s (I-Ariz.) seat. A set of Arizona polls compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ show the Arizona congressman leads the former local news anchor 47% to 43%.
Weeks ago, Democrats sounded the alarm about President Biden’s re-election, worried that he would impact candidates in critical electoral contests. But with Harris likely to top the list now, some in the party are seeing reason to be more optimistic.
Recent research from Emerson College Polling and The Hillsuggests Harris could help Democrats in swing states. Polls showed her trailing Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 44 percent — but still outpacing Biden, who got 40 percent there in the last poll conducted by Emerson. In other battleground states, the new poll shows Harris leading Biden by 3 to 5 points.
The polls, of course, could still change with less than 100 days until the November elections.
Lake, meanwhile, has faced her own challenges as she appears to be the clear favorite in Tuesday’s primary, where she faces Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Although she made some attempts to woo moderates, she functioned in many ways as the same kind of conservative firebrand she did when she ran for governor in 2022 — much to the chagrin of some party members.
“Kari is who she is,” said a source familiar with Lake’s campaign.
“There’s not much that Kari needs to change. She needs to be herself and…run her race,” the source said, noting the small margin Lake has lost in 2022.
The source noted that despite Lake’s campaign spending less than Gallego, the race was increasingly close, arguing that “his messaging discipline is working” and has “done the work on the ground.”
Some Republicans are also hopeful that Harris, at the top of the ticket, will help the GOP in the Grand Canyon state.
“Whether Mark Lamb or Kari Lake wins, the fact that Harris is at the top of the ticket will give us a huge controversy to resolve,” said Dave Smith, chairman of the Pima County Republican Party. “Whether or not people believe she was the border czar or not, the border is a big problem here.”
Harris was chosen in 2021 to lead efforts addressing “the root causes of migration from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras and the Republican Party has seized on the term “border czar” to label her, although that was never her true role. .
Barnes, the former GOP state lawmaker, also suggested that Harris wouldn’t be useful in a state like Arizona because “she’s a California liberal and California liberals don’t work in Arizona.”
But other Republicans believe the race could become more competitive now that Harris is leading the field.
“The only reason [Lake] was gaining ground, in my opinion, it wasn’t because of its killer ads or Gallego’s shortcomings. It was just Trump strutting around in Arizona,” said Republican consultant Jason Rose.
When Biden was at the top of the Democratic ticket, Gallego consistently outperformed the president and generally outperformed Lake in the polls. The recent Emerson College Polling and The Hill poll released this week showed Gallego at 46% and Lake at 42%.
While Democrats in competitive Senate races have distanced themselves from Biden, who has suffered submerged approval ratings, some of those same candidates have been less shy about aligning themselves with the vice president.
“As Vice President, @KamalaHarris has crisscrossed the country and visited states like ours to defend women’s right to make their own health care decisions,” Gallegowrote on Xafter Biden dropped out. “I look forward to fighting with her to defend these rights as she works to win the nomination.”
Galicianhas faced attackson the immigration issue from Lake and the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm. The congressman, who has sought to avoid his progressive bona fides, has leaned into some of these issues himself,showing an ad of him with a Democratic sheriffin the municipality of Santa Cruz. Galicianso-called Biden executive orderin June, this limited asylum claims a “step in the right direction” but argues that more needs to be done.
Gallego’s campaign also sought to remind voters of his military credentials, while also focusing on issues that resonate with the Democratic base, such as abortion.
“Ruben Gallego is a Navy combat veteran who has always put Arizonans first to cut costs for families, defend abortion rights and protect Social Security and Medicare for our seniors,” the spokeswoman said of Gallego’s campaign, Hannah Goss. “Meanwhile, Kari Lake is a power-hungry opportunist who will do anything to gain power – even if it means banning abortion or declaring herself governor after her defeat in 2022. She does not represent Arizona values and that is exactly why That’s what you’ll lose once again this year.”
Harris’ campaign is also redirecting attacks on immigration back at Trump, arguing that he himself doesn’t have a great track record on the issue.
“Donald Trump tanked the bipartisan border security agreement because, for Donald Trump, this was never about solutions just to solve a problem,” said a Harris campaign spokesperson. “Like everything with Donald Trump, it was never about helping the country, it was just about helping himself. There is only one candidate in this race who will fight for bipartisan solutions to strengthen border security, and that candidate is Vice President Harris.”
There are also lingering questions about who Harris might choose as vice president. Kelly is reportedly on the list of those being considered. Harris’ campaign spokesperson confirmed that he has begun vetting potential vice presidential candidates.
“This process has begun in earnest and we do not expect to have additional updates until the Vice President announces who will serve as her running mate and as the next Vice President of the United States,” the spokesperson said.
Gallego himself praised Kelly’s prospect as Harris’ running mate, saying the former astronaut would provide a “shock” to the campaign.
Speaking outside the Capitol on Thursday, KellyI left the door opento see if he wanted to be Harris’ running mate — keeping Arizona Democrats hopeful they could see their astronaut on the ballot once again.
“He’s phenomenal,” said Steven Slugocki, former chairman of the Maricopa County Democratic Party.
“I think if he is chosen for vice president, I think it will do nothing but help Arizona and Ruben win this election.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
