The impending verdict in former President Trump’s trial will send ripples through the 2024 presidential race and determine whether Trump runs for the White House as a convicted felon.
The defense and prosecution presented closing arguments on Tuesday. The jury will deliberate on 34 counts of falsifying business documents in connection with an alleged hush money scheme involving porn star Stormy Daniels. The jury must reach a unanimous verdict on each count.
Although only a portion of the public has been following the day-to-day developments of the trial, this is likely to change once there is a verdict.
“I don’t think outside of the base of both parties that many people are paying attention to the trial until the verdict is read,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist.
The verdict will be historic. Either Trump will campaign for the White House like a convicted criminal, giving Democrats new arguments and possibly alienating independent voters, or he will be acquitted as the first US president to stand trial, giving him a rallying cry for the rest of the campaign . .
The political significance of the trial was evident Tuesday when the Biden and Trump campaigns held dueling events outside the courthouse.
The Biden campaign summoned actor Robert De Niro and retired police officers who were at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, for a press conference to criticize Trump as dangerous and a threat to democracy.
It was the first time that the Biden campaign held an event around the trial. Communications Director Michael Tyler explained the reason to the media: “Because you are all here.”
“We want to remind the American people… of the unique, persistent and growing threat that Donald Trump poses to the American people and to our democracy,” he said.
Trump campaign aides gathered moments later to deride Biden’s event as a sign of desperation.
“Why is Joe Biden now making this a campaign event, after months of using the legal system as a weapon against President Trump? Because Joe Biden’s numbers are down,” said Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller.
In recent weeks, Republicans have made Trump’s trial central to their own messaging, with President Mike Johnson (R-La.) and a cavalcade of other lawmakers traveling to New York City to watch the proceedings and denounce the case outside of the court.
Trump and his allies have cast the case as a “legal war” emanating from the Biden White House, and a guilty verdict is expected to further fuel those allegations, although there is no evidence that the White House played a role in the cases filed against Trump. .
If Trump is found innocent, the former president and other Republicans are expected to take a victory lap and hail the result as vindication, while also using it to cast doubt on the validity of the other charges against Trump.
An acquittal would be a “political gold mine,” said a Republican strategist close to Trump.
President Biden has kept his distance from the trial, except for a few jokes at Trump’s expense. But when a verdict is read, the president will likely have to address it in some way. The White House did not respond Tuesday to a question about whether Biden would comment at the end of the case.
A source familiar with the matter said Biden’s campaign is still weighing whether to adopt the “convicted felon” label for Trump or use it in attack ads. But more generally, the campaign and Democrats are expected to argue that Trump is a threat to democracy and personal freedoms and must be stopped at the polls.
Polls have shown that there are a number of voters who could change their views on Trump depending on the outcome. AQuinnipiac University National Surveyconducted in April, found that 21% of voters said a conviction would make them less likely to support Trump, while 62% said it would make no difference.
Among Trump voters, the poll found that 62 percent said a conviction would make no difference to their vote, while 31 percent said it would make them more likely to support Trump.
These numbers could be significant as polls show a tight race in some swing states. An average of polls from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill shows Trump leading Biden by 2 percentage points in Michigan and 2 points in Pennsylvania, while the two are virtually tied in Wisconsin.
“There is a great political irony here, in that the trial and verdict are obviously historic, but at the same time, due to the deep political polarization of the country and the strong public exposure that Trump has had over the last eight years, opinions about they are practically incorporated,” said Grant Reeher, director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute at Syracuse University.
A guilty verdict may give some undecided voters pause, but it may not weigh as heavily as factors such as inflation, immigration or crime, Reeher said. A not guilty verdict could also provide some reassurance to undecided voters who are considering voting for Trump.
“In both cases, the effect is probably marginal,” Reeher said. “However, even marginal effects in a very close election can be important.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
