Former President Trump and his allies have spent hours since he was convicted in New York arguing that the verdict would ultimately be to his advantage.
They could easily be wrong.
In fact, no one knows for sure what the political ramifications of the verdict will be, given that the nation is once again in uncharted waters. Trump is the first former president to be found guilty of a crime – 34 of them, in his case.
The Trump team claims the result enraged his supporters – which is clearly true – and caused a surge in fundraising.
Trump’s campaign said Friday that it had raised an astronomical $34.8 million in less than seven hours after the verdict was announced the day before.
Conservative commentators are amplifying the former president’s claims that he has been the target of a politically motivated lawsuit designed to hurt his chances of winning back the White House in November.
But there is an equally plausible narrative that the verdict could harm Trump far more than it helps him. Democrats argue this could swing the election in President Biden’s favor.
A criminal conviction for Trump could alienate some undecided voters who might otherwise give him their support, give pause to those who remain undecided, and penetrate the consciousness of those who are not inclined to follow every political twist.
Even before the verdict was announced, it was clear that a portion of Republican-leaning voters still had doubts about Trump.
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley continued to rack up votes in the Republican Party primaries, which she withdrew from more than two months ago. Earlier this month, Haley won about 20% of the vote in primaries in Indiana, Maryland and Nebraska.
This non-Trump “protest vote” seems at least as significant as Democrats’ tendency to vote “non-committal” to register their objections to Biden’s policies toward Israel and Gaza.
Furthermore, polls show a broadly similar range of voters who simply do not accept Trump’s argument that his conviction is proof that he was the victim of a sinister liberal alliance.
An Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday revealed, as expected, that the overwhelming majority of Republicans (72 percent) consider the investigations that supported Trump’s accusation to be unfair. But that still leaves more than 1 in 4 who consider these investigations fair (10 percent) or are unsure whether they were fair or unfair (16 percent).
A follow-up survey, released byYouGov on Friday morningfound that 10% of Republicans and 27% of independents said the guilty verdict made them less likely to vote for Trump.
Trump defenders would point out that doubters are outnumbered by people who say the verdict makes no difference to their voting intentions – 34% of Republicans and 39% of independents.
But that may not be relevant, given the likelihood that the November elections will be close.
In the average of polls maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump led Biden by just 1.5 percentage points as of Friday night. In the band of three swing states stretching from Pennsylvania through Michigan to Wisconsin, Trump’s lead is also less than 2 points.
“Elections are won by the margins,” said progressive strategist Jonathan Tasini. “All you have to do is reach a small number of voters in maybe half a dozen states and that’s it.”
Tasini said it was “pretty obvious” that a criminal conviction of Trump could have such an impact.
He also argued that the degree to which the guilty verdict energizes Trump’s MAGA base may ultimately be relevant, since it only solidifies the votes the former president would have received anyway.
“Their base was burned down, whether convicted or not,” Tasini said. “It is difficult to see that this [verdict] helps him in ways other than fundraising.”
There is also the nature of the New York case to consider. The 34 criminal counts of falsifying business records revolve around a secret payment of $130,000 to adult actress Stormy Daniels. The money was intended to prevent Daniels from going public, in the final days of the 2016 election campaign, with her story of having sex with Trump at a celebrity golf tournament a decade earlier.
Sinister allegations involving Trump are hardly a surprise at this point. But that doesn’t mean voters want them shoved in the face yet again.
The nature of the case — and the verdict — “will seep into everyone’s consciousness over time,” said Democratic strategist Tad Devine.
Devine also said that even Trump’s vehement statement of grievances at a news conference on Friday was an example of the kind of behavior that could turn off voters.
“The guy talks about himself and his grievances non-stop when people are dealing with real issues in their lives,” the strategist said.
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
