Ukraine tries to stop the bleeding as the US prepares more aid

Ukraine will soon receive much-needed relief to stabilize the front lines of its war with Russia, after the United States Congress released billions of dollars in new weapons. But Kiev still faces an uphill battle this year in achieving critical war objectives.

The immediate effect of the US package will be to help defend Ukrainian cities and defensive positions on the front lines, as artillery and air defenses have diminished since the last US shipments in December. The Biden administration is preparing 155mm artillery shells, air defense munitions and anti-tank munitions in an initial $1 billion package, according to Reuters.

But more ambitious goals, such as retaking territory in a renewed counteroffensive against entrenched Russian forces, may not happen this year, analysts say.

Becca Wasser, a senior fellow in the defense program at the Center for a New American Security, said the aid package received is significant but will not “magically solve all of Ukraine’s problems,” especially since additional, timely U.S. assistance is not available. guaranteed.

“There is a choice that Ukrainian leaders need to make, which is: are they going to try to break some of the stalemate and push for an offensive, or are they going to focus on holding the lines they currently have?” she said, noting that a counteroffensive could quickly consume resources.

“Considering ways in which they can leverage the current aid package and those also provided by European partners to last longer, I think that is probably a good way forward,” she added.

Kiev breathed a sigh of relief after the House approved the aid over the weekend after months of delays. Russian forces have taken advantage of the delay on the battlefield, making incremental gains along the 600-mile eastern front and putting Ukrainian troops at a disadvantage.

The US$95 billion package, which will also fund Israel, Taiwan and other allies, was approved by the Senate on Tuesday night and is expected to be quickly signed into law by President Biden, whose administration has signaled it could move within days to obtain weapons for Ukraine. some of which are already in Europe.

For Ukraine’s security needs, the House-approved package includes more than $23 billion to replenish U.S. weapons stocks, which will allow Washington to send existing supplies.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address Sunday that advisers were working to ensure the package would deliver “exactly what our warriors at the front are waiting for.”

“This force must be the one capable of really changing the situation on the front line,” he said. “Air defense on the front line is as important as the protection of our cities and villages. Our long-range capabilities, artillery and ability to expand our area of ​​control are important.”

Zelensky added in a video on Monday that he spoke with Biden and was pursuing three critical priorities: air defense munitions, long-range strike capabilities and artillery. He said Ukraine will receive for the first time the best versions of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which can hit targets up to 300 kilometers away.

The aid will certainly give Ukraine a desperately needed boost on the battlefield. The last available US funds ran out at the end of 2023. Russian forces took the opportunity to attack Ukrainian cities – exhausting their air defense ammunition – and advance across the battlefield.

CIA Director Bill Burns warned last week that without more aid, Ukraine faced potential defeat by the end of the year.

Russian forces took the town of Avdiivka in February and are slowly advancing to take the town of Chasiv Yar, a strategic point because it could open the way for further gains in the eastern region of Donetsk.

John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said at a press conference on Monday that Chasiv Yar is “militarily important as a gateway to other nearby cities” and could give forces Russians a high ground for artillery.

Hardie explained that Ukrainian units are struggling with shortages of men and ammunition, and the problem has become particularly acute with a shortage of 155mm artillery shells.

“This U.S. aid is really coming at the right time, at a time when Ukraine is starting to crack a little on the battlefield,” he said. “And I think they really need supplies from the U.S., especially to supply the artillery units.”

Bradley Bowman, senior director of the FDD’s Center for Military and Political Power, added in the appeal that the delay in U.S. aid “has been costly on the battlefield.”

“We have seen the unnecessary loss of Ukrainian lives,” he said.

Russia is trying to hurt Ukraine as much as possible before more weapons arrive.

The Institute for the Study of War said in a Monday review that Russian forces are likely taking advantage of the “brief window” before US aid arrives to attack Kharkiv, a city that Moscow appears to be eyeing.

Russia is also advancing northwest of Avdiivka, but more U.S. aid is likely to blunt the impact of Russian movement there and toward Kharkiv, researchers assessed.

Still, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, told the BBC last week that Russian forces could create a major problem for Ukraine between mid-May and early June.

“A rather difficult situation awaits us in the near future,” he said. “But it’s not catastrophic.”

While stabilizing the front is an important objective, Ukraine’s ultimate goal is to retake eastern Ukraine from Russia, an effort that failed last year when Kiev launched a highly anticipated summer counteroffensive that failed to break through Russian lines. .

With more aid, Ukraine could begin preparing for another counteroffensive, but it is unlikely to be in a position to launch one this year, experts say.

Analysts say Ukraine should work to hold the lines and prepare for a counteroffensive next year, including by training and mobilizing desperately needed forces. Ukraine has been unwilling to impose a mass mobilization of around 500,000 troops, likely due to the unpopularity of such a measure.

FDD’s Bowman said Ukraine should focus on “avoiding the loss of major cities” this year.

“I really see that [current package] how to stop the momentum of Russian tactical offensives this year and then build some of the momentum for offensive operations next year,” he said. “I will be shocked if Ukraine has the ability to organize any kind of operational and strategic-level offensive this year.”

Although Congress ultimately decided to approve more aid to Ukraine, a majority of House Republicans voted against the bill, foreshadowing the uphill battle future aid packages for Ukraine will face. The increase could become even greater depending on the outcome of the US presidential and congressional elections this year.

Grant Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, said that in addition to far-right lawmakers in the House who are unequivocally opposed to Ukraine funding, other Republicans who voted against the latest bill are more persuadable on this issue.

“There is room for us to be persuaded that it is in our interest to do this,” he said. “I don’t see us abandoning Ukraine and just going away.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) changed his tune on the issue, initially demanding that aid to Ukraine be tied to U.S.-Mexico border security before moving the package to Kiev last week despite threats from the far right to remove him. Johnson said he heeded intelligence briefings about the threat from Russia.

“I don’t think he wanted to be the leader of a Congress that didn’t provide help when it was needed,” Reeher said of Johnson. “Both for reasons of history and what his legacy will be and also, just for the politics of this [because …] It wouldn’t reflect well.

Brock Bierman, senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said the new package will likely help Ukraine through the rest of the year. If Ukrainians continue to fight on the battlefield, he said it could further complicate the debate on Capitol Hill.

“The fact that the Ukrainians show that they have the ability to create victory and reclaim parts of Ukraine that were recaptured or even occupied by the Russians will be an important ingredient for congressional support for Ukraine,” he said.

But Bierman said most Americans support Kiev and understand the importance of defending a sovereign nation and democracy. “I think at the end of the day we will continue to support Ukraine.”