Russia seizes last window before US weapons strengthen Ukraine’s front lines

While Ukraine desperately awaits the arrival of new US weapons and equipment approved last month, Russia is looking to make the most of the remaining window.

Last week, Moscow’s forces seized several villages in eastern Ukraine after Kiev’s worn-out army ceded ground, and are positioned to secure additional territory in the coming days.

Relentless Russian missile and drone attacks have also been increasingly effective as Ukraine runs out of defensive weapons to counter the attacks.

But the window for Russia to exploit Ukraine’s weakness is closing quickly, with limited time before American weapons flood the battlefield and reinvigorate Ukrainian forces, experts say.

“Knowing that renewed aid is on the way, Ukraine is strengthening its defenses. I think [Russians] we’re still trying to push as the window closes,” Steven Horrell, a nonresident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told The Hill.

And Michael O’Hanlon, an expert at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington, said Russia’s forces could “accelerate the pace and carnage by 10 to 20 percent” in the interval between last week’s announcement of new U.S. aid and when these weapons reach Ukrainian troops.

The Defense Department last week announced a $1 billion package for Ukraine shortly after President Biden signed a supplemental national security bill into law. Much of the weapons shipment, intended to deliver critical artillery and air defense munitions to Kiev, was already pre-positioned in Europe so it could be transported quickly to Ukraine, according to the Pentagon.

“As soon as we were able to announce that $1 billion… we were ready to support Ukraine almost immediately,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said Wednesday.

She was unable to say, however, whether the lethal assistance reached the front lines and the units that need it most.

Another $6 billion package announced last week did not come from US shares and could take months, if not years, to reach Ukraine.

U.S. and Ukrainian officials and lawmakers praised the passage of the $95 billion supplement, which includes about $61 billion to support Kiev, but Congress’ months-long delay before getting the bill to Biden’s desk proved be detrimental to the embattled country.

Most U.S. assistance to Ukraine ceased at the end of 2023, leaving Ukrainian troops desperate for ammunition and air defenses as Russia advanced on the battlefield and attacked key cities and energy infrastructure with artillery, drones and bombs.

“It’s good that Congress finally approved the Ukraine aid package. The months of delay have been very costly,” Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Tuesday.

Shortly after the latest US aid was announced, Ukrainian troops withdrew from several villages captured by the Russian army in the eastern Donetsk region, including Berdychi, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka.

Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Sunday that “the situation at the front has worsened” and that Russia had used its advantage in men and ammunition to advance towards the cities of Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, as well. in Donetsk.

Additionally, Moscow’s military is pushing to capture Ocheretyne, a small rural town in eastern Ukraine where Kiev’s forces are fighting to hold the defensive line, according to a battlefield assessment released Wednesday by the Institute. Hudson.

“Over the past week, Moscow’s growing artillery advantage and Kiev’s halting mobilization efforts have allowed Russian forces to make significant battlefield advances and tactical gains on multiple fronts,” the assessment concluded.

“Meanwhile, Russian air and missile strikes continued to target major Ukrainian population centers.”

And the Institute for the Study of War reported Monday that “Russian forces will likely continue to make tactical gains” around the large city of Avdiivka in the coming weeks.

Russia has moved more aggressively this spring, in part to seize the initiative after delayed U.S. aid to Ukrainian defenders.

John Herbst, former US ambassador to Ukraine, predicted that Russia could accelerate its offensive – which was launched in mid-autumn – given the speed with which the US is flowing its aid to Ukraine.

“It’s certainly a period of heightened danger until a lot of the aid arrives,” said Herbst, now senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

But he added that he believes the most dangerous moment has passed, as Ukrainians in turn have stepped up their use of weapons they have rationed since last fall, knowing they will soon be reloaded.

“I think they will lose very little or no territory, starting in two, three or four weeks,” Herbst said of the Ukrainians.