A major Russian advance northeast of Kharkiv has created one of the most significant challenges since the start of the war for Ukrainian troops, who are starved of ammunition and exhausted as they fight along the 600-mile front line.
Moscow’s surprise invasion of Kharkiv from the Russian province of Belgorod last Friday is putting pressure on Ukrainian forces already struggling to defend themselves from Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine, mainly in the Donetsk region, which the Kremlin has long sought it as a prize.
Although Russia does not appear to have the strength to gain significant ground in Kharkiv, its troops advanced with relative ease and forced Ukraine to deploy reserve units, which could endanger Ukrainian positions elsewhere on the front.
Branislav Slantchev, a political science professor who studies war at the University of California-San Diego, said Russia is trying to seize territory, taking advantage of the brief period before American weapons fully arrive from the $61 billion national security supplement. from last month.
“We are seeing Ukraine at its weakest point,” he said. “The Russians are using [this window] and pushing like crazy because they know that in the middle or end of summer the situation will stabilize. … Ukrainians are in trouble right now and the next few months will be very critical.”
Russian forces have advanced at least 39 square miles into Kharkiv, according to open source channels, and are closing in on Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv.
Russia has advanced with the help of armored vehicles, artillery fire and glide bombs, or precision-guided munitions against which Ukraine has been difficult to defend, especially when air defenses are weak.
Several villages have fallen to Russia and forces are close to capturing the city of Vovchansk, which has begun evacuating thousands of civilians ahead of the Russian advance.
Russian military bloggers claim that Russia has moved into the northern part of Vovchansk, where heavy fighting continues. The Russian Defense Ministry said forces have also seized towns near Vovchansk, including Bugrovatka, or are fighting around villages.
Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said in a Telegram post this week that “the situation at the front remains tense.”
“The situation in Kharkiv Oblast has worsened significantly,” he wrote.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address on Tuesday night that the situation remained difficult but was being strengthened and stabilized.
“Many warriors – especially Kharkiv residents – rose up to defend the Kharkiv region,” Zelensky said.
Biden administration officials said this week that the Russian offensive was expected but still appears to have caught Ukraine by surprise. The rapid pace of the Russian advance sparked protests in Ukraine over the lack of defenses in the region, which Ukraine resumed in a surprise counteroffensive in 2022.
Kiev replaced a commander to oversee Kharkiv’s defense. And a Ukrainian reconnaissance commander told the BBC that “there was no first line of defense” and that the Russians “simply entered” Kharkiv.
The Kharkiv offensive also exposed some frustration with US policy. Ukrainian authorities have pushed for more air defenses to cover conflict regions like Kharkiv.
They also want Washington to allow its troops to use US weapons to attack inside Russia, including the Belgorod region near Kharkiv – but that remains a hard no for the Biden administration.
Ukrainian lawmaker David Arahamiya led a delegation to Washington this week to pressure the Biden administration to reverse policy banning the use of U.S. weapons inside Russia.
“It really hurts our frontline positions,” he said of the policy in a roundtable with the media on Tuesday. “No one understands how you can fight for one side and not fight for the other. This isn’t working.”
Michael Bohnert, an engineer at the Rand Corporation focusing on defense technology, said there are also concerns about manpower in Ukraine’s ranks. But he said the Russian advance was due to Ukraine’s lack of ammunition and resources, which had been depleted by the months-long delay in new U.S. military aid.
“They’re just not getting the ammunition they need,” he said. “Ukraine is still at the war stage now where they are starved of ammunition and starved of equipment. These are not hungry people – yet. “
Still, manpower remains a concern and Ukraine has refrained from announcing a mobilization of around 500,000 troops as the proposal is unpopular.
Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinov said morale is low in Ukraine, in part because of questions about U.S. support.
“Because all the Russians are saying, ‘Oh, they’re going to send you to die because you don’t have ammunition. They are not giving you that chance. Which is true,” she said at the roundtable in DC. “It’s very difficult for us to say there is support.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Ukraine on Tuesday to meet with Zelensky and other senior officials as the Russian attack intensifies.
During a speech in Kiev, Blinken said Russia was sending “wave after wave” of attacks on Ukraine in Kharkiv and on the eastern front, but that US assistance could help turn the tide.
“The coming weeks and months will demand a lot from Ukrainians, who have already sacrificed so much,” he said. “But I came to Ukraine with a message: you are not alone. The United States has been by his side since day one. We are with you today. And we will stand by you.”
Russia is putting pressure on Ukraine on several fronts, including the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia, where Ukraine made small gains in a 2023 counteroffensive. There is also an effort to remove the remaining areas of the eastern Luhansk region from Moscow’s control. region outside Moscow’s control, with Russia pressing toward the Kharkiv city of Kupyansk, east of Vovchansk.
Russian troops are also making incremental advances in the eastern region of Donetsk after seizing the town of Avdiivka in February, slowly advancing towards the twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. These cities, if taken, could hand Moscow control of Donetsk.
Russia is advancing toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the direction of Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar, a key town that will give Russian forces high ground for artillery fire if it falls. Chasiv Yar became one of the biggest battlefields of the war.
By opening another front in Kharkiv this month while battles rage, Russia is threatening Ukraine’s ability to defend multiple fronts at once.
The Biden administration has recognized the pace of arms deliveries.
“Part of this is due to a delay of about six months in getting assistance to Ukraine,” White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Monday. “It put Ukraine in a hole and we don’t hide that on this podium.”
Referring to a $1 billion package announced in late April and a $400 million tranche last week, Sullivan said some weapons have arrived and more are arriving this week. He said there was a “constant flow” of weapons heading to Ukraine and that another package would be announced soon.
“The delay has put Ukraine in a hole and we are trying to help them get out of that hole as quickly as possible,” Sullivan added.
Analysts say that Russia, at the pace of its offensive, could maintain pressure for several more months. While Ukraine could reverse some Russian gains later, the more territory Ukraine loses is a concern because Moscow could dig in and entrench itself, a tactic that worked to repel the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Still, Russia mustered only about 30,000 troops for the Kharkiv offensive, which military analysts say is not enough to take any major cities.
The effort could point to a Kremlin strategy to create a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine, a point Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly raised to protect Russia’s border regions from Ukrainian drone strikes and bombings.
Still, given the regional proximity to Kiev, any significant Russian advances in Kharkiv could put Ukraine’s capital at risk for the first time since Russia’s full invasion in February 2022.
While it would be difficult to take the city of Kharkiv, Russia could surround it and put it under immense pressure, endangering a critical area and potentially putting Ukrainian supply lines within artillery range, said David Silbey, associate professor and historian military at Cornell University.
It could become “very difficult to supply further east, which gives the Russians more chances to advance there,” Silbey said, saying the Kharkiv offensive “catches the Ukrainians in a kind of vice.” [as they are] short of manpower and already threatened in substantial directions.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
