An intensification of the military alliance between Russia and North Korea could spell trouble for President Biden in November.
Pyongyang – already accused of supplying Moscow large quantities of ammunition for his war in Ukraine in exchange for military technology – is suspected of planning a major provocative military action close to the US presidential election, according to US intelligence and experts.
This storm cloud on the horizon adds to a broader agreement between the two countries that could be signed within a few weeks, during an expected visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korea to meet with leader Kim Jong Un.
Such a deal would likely further entrench the grinding war in Ukraine and reinforce Pyongyang’s nuclear objectives, heightening tensions in the Asia-Pacific region during an already difficult year for Biden on foreign policy.
“This is definitely something the Biden administration should be concerned about,” said Harry Kazianis, senior director of national security affairs at the Center for the National Interest think tank.
The alliance between Kim and Putin has grown steadily since September, when the two first met to negotiate the purchase of North Korean artillery shells, rockets and missiles in exchange for valuable Russian military technology.
In November, US and South Korean officials estimated that Pyongyang had sent a million artillery shells to Moscow, as well as rockets and ballistic missiles – a violation of numerous UN sanctions on both countries – although North Korea denies firmly support these allegations.
North Korean missiles have had a deadly impact on Ukraine, according to Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh.
“We have seen this deepening of the partnership between North Korea and Russia. We know that ammunition supplied by the DPRK to Russia is being used on the battlefield in Ukraine,” she told reporters on Thursday, referring to the country’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
“We know they were successful in damaging infrastructure, causing civilian deaths.”
Now, with Putin planning to visit Kim in the coming weeks, experts predict an even more solidified military alliance. The union is beneficial both to Russia’s goal of crushing the nuclear and space ambitions of Ukraine and North Korea, but it is problematic for the rest of the globe.
“The relationship between Russia and North Korea makes Russia a little more dangerous and a little more problematic, but it makes North Korea much more dangerous and much more problematic,” said Markus Garlauskas, director of the Indo-Security Initiative. Pacific in the Atlantic Council.
Garlauskas told The Hill that the alliance will likely encourage Kim to levels of escalation he would otherwise be unwilling to undertake, while also helping North Korea refine its capabilities and give them insights into how they can use it. them in real or large-scale conflicts. war.
Kim, in particular, hopes that Russia will help North Korea complete the final steps needed to launch its first nuclear-armed submarine, as well as to successfully launch a spy satellite into space.
“I think there will be a lot of talk about a very firm military partnership,” Kazianis said of the upcoming meeting. “I think the North Koreans are going to formalize their aid to Russia in terms of military equipment, missiles, all those kinds of things. And I think the Russians will reciprocate by offering satellite equipment, [Intercontinental Ballistic Missile] technology, missile technology, helping with advanced artillery equipment.”
He said such a deal is “extremely dangerous for the Biden administration” given North Korea’s already potent arsenal, which could soon be bolstered by Soviet technology.
“I think the Biden administration needs to start thinking about what it can do to limit that impact, and I don’t think it’s doing that right now,” he added.
Russia’s military, which is consuming munitions on the battlefield faster than its factories can produce it, will continue to need outside help, likely from surplus old North Korean military stockpiles left over from the US War. Korea, according to Victor Cha. senior vice president for Asia and Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
In return, North Korea appears eager for a major military build-up through Moscow after a series of setbacks, including the explosion of a spy satellite on Monday, just minutes after liftoff – the third such failure in the last four years. Pyongyang’s attempts to put a satellite into orbit.
That failure triggered a violent barrage of at least 10 North Korean ballistic missiles fired from Pyongyang into the Sea of Japan on Thursday, according to U.S. and South Korean officials.
“Russia does not [normally] give important technology to North Korea… but because Putin needs this ammunition, he is probably willing to provide things that he or his predecessors were not willing to provide in the past,” Cha said.
“The war in Ukraine is the best thing that could have happened to North Korea,” he added. “It’s like the candy store opened… just because they put Putin in a position where he needs North Korea more than North Korea needs Putin.”
Such an agreement between the two countries “definitely complicates the situation for Biden because Putin is now doing things with North Korea that not only affect the battlefield in Ukraine, but affect security in the Indo-Pacific,” Cha said. “It’s quite worrying.”
What’s more, the noise from North Korea may soon increase.”
Data compiled by CSIS shows that North Korea typically increases its military activity in U.S. presidential election years at nearly four times its usual rate.
But U.S. intelligence officials are further preparing for the isolated nation to undertake major military action — potentially the biggest in a decade — closer to November. NBC News reported.
Kazianis said he fully expects Pyongyang’s so-called “October surprise” to be a nuclear test, as over the past two years North Korea has fallen off the US media map.
“He has to do something really big. The biggest thing he could do that he hasn’t done in years is a nuclear test,” Kazianis said. “The question for Kim is: Will he do a tactical nuclear weapons test that is a little small but could show a new military capability? Or will he become big and prove to the world that he has the ability to produce hydrogen bombs?”
This possibility has been reinforced by US intelligence, which points to increased activity at one of the North Korean nuclear testing facilities.
Additionally, satellite images from April 2, Beyond the parallela CSIS project, showed activity in Tunnel No. 3 at the Punggye-ri nuclear facility in North Korea.
“Any activity in or around Tunnel No. 3 is always a cause for concern, as both the United States and South Korea have assessed North Korea as having completed all necessary preparations for conducting a seventh nuclear test starting of the tunnel”, observed the group.
Others, including Cha, have predicted that North Korea will continue its missile demonstrations throughout the rest of this year, which could include a major ICBM test flight.
And North Korea does not appear to be influenced to give up its military ambitions by any external stimulus. The US has not made any significant progress with the Kim regime since Biden took office, despite multiple offers to begin talks without any conditions. The only outreach attempt made this year was unresponsive, officials told NBC.a
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
