Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin are struggling to keep bodies on the battlefield amid domestic political pressures surrounding mobilization.
More than two years into the war and with tens of thousands of military casualties on both sides, the situation at the front remains unstable, with around a fifth of Ukrainian territory still under Russian occupation and no advances on the horizon.
Now, both leaders must face their countries’ specific domestic demands to maintain forces on the ground.
Zelensky is facing a strong backlash for lowering the draft age. And Putin, although working with a larger population, seeks to mitigate political suffering by focusing recruitment efforts on small and rural towns at the expense of large cities.
“If Ukraine really wanted to have the ability to go on the offensive, it would probably have to lower the draft age to 18, and it clearly doesn’t want to do that,” said Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. friend.
Kiev in May implemented a divisive mobilization law following a new Russian ground offensive in northeastern Ukraine, putting further pressure on the embattled country’s overstretched forces.
The legislation – which was passed in mid-April and makes it easier to identify those who can be recruited – came into force a month after Ukraine also lowered the recruitment age for men from 27 to 25.
Ukrainian parliament member Oleksandr Fedienko said at the time that the bill, which could help add around 50,000 troops to Kiev’s armed forces, would send a “message to our partners that we are ready to take back our territory.” .
In addition, Zelensky signed two other laws that allow prisoners to join the army and significantly increase fines for those who do not perform mandatory military service, both controversial measures as they reflect Russia’s initial move to enlist its prisoners.
In order to face the growing tension on the battlefield, experts say it will still not be enough to turn the tide of the conflict and that more extreme options must be implemented, a reality that could erode Zelensky’s popularity.
“This was not enough to deal with the military problem, so the pressure to do more is already being felt, and I hope Zelensky will do more,” said John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and former ambassador to Ukraine. . he said about lowering the draft age.
Herbst explained that there is, by American standards, a peculiar Ukrainian cultural attitude toward conscription. Young people are not expected to be recruited before the age of 20, as the population wants to be sure they will have the opportunity to procreate before people go off to war. This has been true for Ukraine since its independence in 1991, “so it is necessary to fight against the culture, [but] Fighting the culture is not good for someone’s political rating,” Herbst told The Hill.
Zelensky, while aware that lowering the draft age will address battlefield restrictions, is reluctant to act due to concerns about what it might do to his popularity, he added.
Instead, it has resorted to other methods to reinforce its forces, which are reportedly outnumbered by Russia by seven to 10 to one.
Among these ways is the recovery of some men of military age who fled the country following the Russian invasion in February 2022.
In late April, Ukrainian embassies temporarily suspended consular services, such as passport renewals, for men aged 18 to 64, putting new pressure on them to return home to fight.
“There will be no restrictions or forced return of Ukrainian citizens of any gender or age to a country that is at war,” Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said in comments published by Deutsche Welle on April 30.[But] There are no easy solutions to the issues of war and let us not forget that the war is ongoing and we have to win it.”
In a late-night video address in early April, Zelensky appealed to Ukrainians that May and June “should be a period of activity for the good of Ukraine, for us to achieve our goals in this war.”
Kiev has also banned men under 60 from leaving the country since the start of the war. But on June 1, the country closed a “residence abroad” loophole for dual nationals, prompting the U.S. Embassy in Kiev to warn dual U.S. and Ukrainian nationals that they will no longer be able to leave. the war-torn nation if they are otherwise eligible. for recruitment.
Meanwhile, in Russia, a recently re-elected Putin faces his own pressure.
Last week, Putin gave a rare update on the number of casualties and prisoners of war, saying that Moscow had lost just one soldier for every five that Kiev has.
U.S. battlefield estimates, by comparison, put the latest Russian casualties at 515,000, including more than 50,000 deaths, since the start of the war.
These losses likely led Moscow to prepare a new wave of military mobilization, estimated to take place this month, which aims to recruit up to 300,000 new soldiers to reinforce its forces already in Ukraine, according to Zelensky.
The move, which would have come about due to the dwindling number of people willing to go into battle, would follow Putin’s shaky mobilization efforts in the past.
In September 2022, when he announced a partial mobilization – just before a full conscription – tens of thousands of Russian men fled across the country’s borders to avoid conscription and widespread protests broke out.
“Putin was avoiding trying too hard to get people from St. Petersburg and Moscow to serve,” O’Hanlon told The Hill. “He didn’t want to lose his popularity with the elite, but he knew that if he made this big appeal to Russian nationalism in the small towns and outlying areas and, of course, the prisoners, he would have a larger population base around him. side.”
But even if numbers, time and recent battlefield dynamics appear to be on his side, the effort “does not appear to be generating a true ability to win the war,” he added.
One of Ukraine’s biggest advantages in the war is that, by and large, its people understand why they are fighting and believe they have to fight, Herbst said. In Russia, by comparison, polls may show substantial support for the war, but there have never been many Russians who volunteered to fight.
“You don’t have true public support for war, which translates into enough members, enough men, signing up to fight,” Herbst said. “And Putin is reluctant to actually recruit, at least in the big Russian cities, because in those Russian cities it would be very unpopular and making a big city allows opposition to form.”
“This is not the Russian People’s War where it is the Ukrainian People’s War,” he added.
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
