China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding, and rapidly, according to a new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Published Monday.
The number of operational nuclear warheads worldwide is increasing every year, the report concluded, with the fastest growing arsenal belonging to China. The Institute predicted that China’s arsenal of active intercontinental nuclear missiles could grow to match American and Russian weapons by 2030.
“While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, we regrettably continue to see annual increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads,” SIPRI Director Dan Smith said in a statement. . “This trend appears likely to continue and likely accelerate in the coming years and is extremely concerning.”
The Institute estimated that China’s arsenal of nuclear weapons has grown from 410 to around 500 operational warheads by 2023. It also stated that China is believed to be deploying warheads in times of peace, which would be a first for the country.
Although China’s total arsenal of nuclear weapons is expected to remain much smaller than that of the US or Russia, its aggressive deployment could match other countries’ active weaponry in the coming years, SIPRI predicted.
“China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country,” wrote Hans Kristensen, senior associate fellow at SIPRI. “But in almost every nuclear weapon state there are plans or a significant effort to increase nuclear forces.”
Around 2,100 nuclear missiles are believed to be deployed and operational at any given time, SIPRI reported, with almost all of them owned by the US or Russia.
China’s increase in weapons comes at a time when global tensions are rising, between active conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and the constant unrest around Taiwan. China has increased its military exercises near Taiwan over the past year, with some analysts believing China is planning an invasion of the disputed country.
The projected increase reflects a Pentagon report from last October, which also stated that China is believed to have around 500 operational nuclear weapons. The Pentagon has said Chinese capabilities could expand to about 1,000 weapons by 2030.
The nuclear expansion also comes at a time when most countries are striving to expand or modernize their arsenals, SIPRI concluded. The Institute said North Korea, France and India took steps to expand their weapons last year, while Israel – which does not officially recognize that it possesses nuclear weapons – is believed to have worked to modernize its arsenal.
China has continued its significant investment in defense despite a struggling economy and slow recovery from the COVID pandemic. A SIPRI report in April found that China invested about six percent of its budget in defense, the 29th consecutive year that its defense budget has increased.
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