NATO’s new secretary general, Mark Rutte, will have no shortage of issues to tackle, but his biggest challenge could be managing a relationship with the alliance’s de facto leader if former President Trump takes the White House in November.
A second Trump presidency appears increasingly likely after President Biden flopped in last month’s debate, leading to Democratic infighting over his candidacy. This has only fueled concerns in Europe about the weakening or withdrawal of US NATO under Trump.
Those possibilities loom large over a summit this week in Washington – where NATO leaders gather for the alliance’s 75th anniversary – along with the big question of how Rutte will manage a potentially volatile Trump presidency.
Although Rutte is seen as a smooth operator, adept at managing competing factions, like the former Dutch prime minister, Trump’s management of demands and continued support for Ukraine will test his diplomatic skills.
Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who played a cool and diplomatic role during Trump’s presidency, expressed his “absolute trust” in Rutte during a roundtable with the media on Sunday.
Rutte, who will take over NATO’s top position in October, will face two major issues if Trump wins: defense spending across the alliance and how to tackle the war in Ukraine.
Rutte will not start from scratch. Trump’s foreign policy adviser and potential State Department pick, Richard Grenell, does not support his leadership.
“The President of the United States in January 2025 will choose NATO [secretary-general]. I am a hard NO with Rutte,” he wrote in June the social platform.
On a February post, Grenell said Rutte did not spend enough on defense as Dutch prime minister. “The very idea of wanting to reward Rutte with a top position in NATO is a slap in the face to the American taxpayer.”
Rutte has more than a decade of experience as Prime Minister of the Netherlands, where he managed a series of coalitions and different political parties. The Dutch leader is known as “Teflon Marco” because political controversies never manage to affect him.
Rutte is also sometimes called the “Trump whisperer” after he managed to placate Trump in a backroom meeting in 2018. At the time, the former president expressed a desire to abandon the alliance because defense spending was not high enough among the European allies, but Rutte assured him that he was rising.
Rutte that year also showed that he can take on Trump. In a separate meeting, when the then president said it would be “positive” not to resolve a trade dispute with the European Union, the Dutch leader replied that something needed to be resolved.
Rachel Rizzo, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s European Center, said during a press call that Rutte is a skilled diplomat and that this was “good news for the United States and good news for the NATO alliance.”
Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Rutte is a “well-known figure” in European politics and a “consensus choice” to manage a wide range of characters.
“He is seen as an exceptionally talented and likable politician who gets along very well with everyone,” he said at a separate news conference. “Which is, I think, probably one of the most crucial factors or crucial assets in this job, because general secretary is, in some ways, a job about herding cats and getting 32 members on the same page.”
One area where the two leaders could reach agreement is defense spending. NATO has been acting for years to ensure that all 32 members of the alliance pay at least 2% of gross domestic product, or economic output, on defense and security.
A record 23 allies have already achieved this goal, something for which Trump and President Biden have received credit.
But that still leaves nine allies who don’t meet that benchmark, and NATO has also said the 2 percent target is the floor, not the ceiling, leaving room for Trump or other leaders to push for even higher spending quotas. . Trump threatened not to defend allies who don’t pay.
Erwan Lagadec, an associate research professor at George Washington University who specializes in Europe and NATO, said most of the hard work on defense spending has already been done and is unlikely to be a major issue next year, but that Trump could still complicate things.
“We may discover that Trump’s opposition to NATO was always ideological,” said Lagadec. “This is a different problem than the ones Stoltenberg had to face.”
Still, he said Rutte has shown he can “keep his nerve when faced with Trump’s trolling” and knows how to deal with the former president’s complexities.
“If someone can handle a confusing and complex situation that requires them to walk on eggshells and think outside the box, they are a great choice,” Lagadec added.
The war in Ukraine makes a more likely confrontation. Trump, in his June debate with Biden, promised he would end the war before taking office in January 2025, if he wins the election.
It is unclear how he would achieve this, with Russia casting doubt on the possibility, but Trump’s advisers handed you a plan this year This would halt military aid to Ukraine unless Kiev began peace talks with Moscow. Military aid would flow if Russia refused to negotiate.
Trump’s pledge to quickly end the war has raised fears that he might cede occupied regions of Ukraine in exchange for a peace deal.
Rutte has been a strong supporter of Ukraine during his term in office and is likely to continue to insist on the NATO line that allowing Russia to win in Ukraine would be a devastating blow to future security.
In a post this week on his social platform Truth Social, Trump also created another potential conflict, saying that European allies should pay more for Ukraine’s defense.
“The US is paying most of the money to help Ukraine fight Russia,” He wrote. “Europe should at least EQUALIZE!”
Senator James Risch (R-Idaho), ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, said at the NATO summit on Wednesday that it was unclear what Trump’s peace plan was, but that he believes support for Ukraine will continue regardless of the election result.
“People shouldn’t worry about this,” he said, noting that most of Congress supports Ukraine. “This is the right thing to do, America generally does the right thing.”
John Deni, non-resident member of the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, said he hopes allies at the summit will move towards “institutionalizing the relationship between NATO and Ukraine”.
“You cannot escape the political implications of this summit,” he told reporters, citing Biden’s performance in the June debate.
Other analysts say European allies need to demonstrate at the summit that they are strong on defense and Ukraine to protect themselves against a Trump presidency.
“Trump is a guy who likes to hang out with winners, let me put it that way,” said Ian Brzezinski, senior resident fellow at the Atlantic Council. “And if NATO is seen as a losing institution and Ukraine is seen as a losing institution, he [will] I want to drop them like a hot potato.”
The allies have already taken steps to supposedly “Trump-proof the security alliance,” which could make Rutte’s job a little easier. Even in the US, Congress included a provision in the fiscal 2024 defense law that requires a president to seek legislative approval to withdraw from NATO.
Stoltenberg announced at Wednesday’s summit that NATO has agreed to create a command structure in Germany that will oversee the coordination of military aid to Ukraine, effectively taking the current US-led effort out of the equation. The Allies also guaranteed $40 billion in funding for Ukraine for at least another year.
Europe could also try to guarantee its own defense on the continent, amid fears that Trump will not defend his allies. The European Union has already taken steps to bolster its own defense spending since the start of the war in Ukraine.
A European-led army, even with some U.S. funding, could serve both sides if Trump views the effort as allies defending their own defense, said Alp Sevimlisoy, a millennium fellow at the Atlantic Council and NATO expert.
“It’s not just about a country meeting the 2% target or exceeding it,” he said. “It’s about having a cohesive military force that can be mobilized quickly.”
Rizzo, of the Atlantic Council’s European Center, said concerns go beyond Trump, after far-right Republicans blocked U.S. aid to Ukraine for months earlier this year.
“Europe needs to… work on its own defense and on strengthening its armed forces and on increasing its defense spending, regardless of who is in the White House, because at the end of the day,” she said, “all of these These are things that Europe needs to do anyway.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
