Israeli authorities are assessing how to respond to the weekend Hezbollah attack that killed 12 children, as escalating tensions threaten to thwart U.S. efforts to bring stability and peace to the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed that Hezbollah will “pay the price” after a rocket hit a football field in Israel’s Golan Heights. In addition to the deaths, the attack injured 20 people in a city dominated by the Druze Muslim minority.
The US has tried to calm tensions between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel for months, with little success, as both sides teeter toward a bigger war. Israel is already discussing whether a military operation in Lebanon is necessary, and the weekend attack could reinforce the arguments of those who defend war.
Although there have been a series of back-and-forth attacks across the Israel-Lebanon border, the attack on the Golan Heights struck a new nerve and created new pressure on Israel to respond with force.
It also signals the extent to which the conflict has become out of control.
“The problem with this conflict is that deterrence has disappeared [and] Hezbollah is used to attacking Israel without consequences,” said Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum.
Rubin predicted war unless Lebanon and the United Nations take greater steps to contain Hezbollah.
“The result will be a war, and it will look like Gaza, because the status quo was unable to stop Hezbollah.”
Limited Israeli strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon over the past two days are expected to be just the beginning of Israeli retaliation. The Lebanese militia group is moving quickly to defend against an Israeli attack, reportedly evacuating some areas in the south and preparing precision-guided missiles.
Netanyahu, whose security cabinet authorized a retaliatory strike, doubled down on tough response to Hezbollah in a post on social media platform X after visiting the site of the Golan Heights attack.
“These children are our children, they are all of our children,” he wrote. “Our answer will come and it will be difficult.”
The nearly 10-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah began on October 8, the day after Hamas attacked Israel, when the Iranian-backed military and political group in Lebanon fired artillery and rockets across the border to support Hamas in Gaza. .
The fighting has already caused severe damage to Lebanon, with around 100 civilians killed, along with 350 Hezbollah fighters. Around 20 Israeli soldiers and around 20 other civilians in Israel died.
But the conflict is unlikely to come to an end as long as the war in Gaza continues. Israel is inching closer to a deal that could release the roughly 116 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and establish a ceasefire, but it is unclear when that will be reached and whether it will freeze the fighting in the north.
Israel demands the safe return of some 80,000 civilians evacuated from the north, along with a plan to ensure their future protection. Hezbollah is one of Iran’s main representatives, with around 120,000 rockets at its disposal, a much greater threat than Hamas.
And Israeli authorities are sensitive to long-term security following the Hamas attacks on October 7, when the Palestinian militant group invaded southern Israel and killed around 1,200 people, also taking around 250 hostages.
An acceptable diplomatic solution for Israel would likely involve the implementation of a United Nations resolution introduced after the 2006 Israeli offensive in Lebanon, which stipulated a demilitarized zone between the Litani River and a UN-drawn demarcation line called the Blue Line.
Gregory Gause, a professor of international affairs at Texas A&M, said Israel will look for an opportunity to attack Hezbollah in a major operation following a ceasefire in Gaza, unless the Lebanese militant group agrees to withdraw its forces from the border.
“It is only a matter of time, whether it is this specific Hezbollah attack, or something later, that we will see some kind of Israeli military action in the north,” he said.
Even with constant firing on the border, Hezbollah did not seek to worsen the conflict. Hezbollah officials have denied playing any role in the attack on the Golan Heights, although Israel has shown evidence that it was likely a rocket fired by the militant group, a claim backed by the US.
How Israel responds to the attack on the Golan Heights will be decisive.
Rubin, at the Middle East Forum, said Israeli authorities are under pressure to show they will defend the minority Druze population, who inhabit an area Israel seized from Syria in 1967.
“The Druze have been tremendously loyal to Israel, and if Israel doesn’t respond, doesn’t react to avenge the deaths of these Druze children, then that will be a big problem within Israel,” he said. “I suspect we will see a multi-day campaign that will reach deep into Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah military sites.”
Biden administration officials have been in the region for months trying to defuse the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, with little success.
Netanyahu said in his joint address to Congress last week that he prefers a diplomatic solution but is not afraid of a military option. The choice of war was promoted by far-right leaders in his cabinet, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday that he was “confident” they could still secure a diplomatic solution and that “there is still time and space for diplomacy.”
“We have all heard of this total war scenario. Now, at several points over the last 10 months, these predictions have been exaggerated,” he said. “But no one wants a wider war and I am confident that we will be able to avoid such an outcome.”
Kirby added that Israel “has every right to respond” to Hezbollah attacks.
“No nation should have to live with this kind of threat,” he said. “What is really important is that we continue these diplomatic talks with both sides, and we are and will try to reduce tensions.”
Still, each round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah seems to drag them closer to war and further away from a diplomatic settlement.
Amikam Norkin, a retired Israeli Air Force commander, said fighting with Hezbollah runs the risk that “every day something could happen,” like the attack on the Golan Heights.
“Day by day, we are moving toward military activities and less toward diplomatic agreements,” said Norkin, now a distinguished fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, who held a briefing on Monday. “But I think the decision must be made[when] we achieved a ceasefire in Gaza.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
