The assassination of Hamas’s top political leader in Tehran is heightening fears of a wider war, while dampening hopes of a deal to free hostages held by the group and end the war in Gaza.
The assassination, along with an Israeli attack on a Hezbollah leader in Lebanon, comes just days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s high-level visit to Washington, during which he was under intense pressure to reach an agreement.
Israel has hesitated to take responsibility for the killing of Ismael Haniyeh, the political head of Hamas outside Gaza, but Iran blames Israel for Wednesday’s pre-dawn airstrike on Tehran.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that the U.S. was not aware of or involved in the attack, but reiterated U.S. efforts to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, secure the release of about 115 hostages Israelis and resolve the terrible humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.
“I can say that the imperative of achieving a ceasefire, the importance that this has for everyone, remains,” Blinken said in an interview in Singapore during a trip to Asia.
“So that focus remains, and again, speculating about the impact of any event, I’ve learned, is not — not a wise thing to do.”
Haniyeh’s death is not seen as a major blow to the leadership of Hamas, where the concentration of power is in the hands of Yahya Sinwar in the Gaza Strip, but he was a key figure in high-stakes ceasefire negotiations with Israel . These negotiations will likely be halted as a protest against his death and while funeral ceremonies are held in Doha, Qatar – so far scheduled for Thursday.
The US blacklisted Haniyeh as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist in 2018, but his longtime residence in Doha was part of an agreement between Israel, the US and Qatar to maintain open channels of communication with Hamas amid years of tenuous truce broken by explosions. of open conflict.
“The administration is in an embarrassing situation,” said Gerald Feierstein, former US ambassador to Qatar and senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
“They will certainly say that Israel has the right to self-defense, blah, blah, blah, but behind the scenes, I suspect they are seething.”
And Haniyeh’s absence from diplomatic talks opens a void that can be filled by voices advocating an expansion of the war, Feierstein added, in a conflict in which almost all fronts are prepared for escalation.
“You have removed a barrier to the more militant factions within Hamas, in that the political wing will now be in disarray while they figure out what to do, this puts all the initiative in the hands of people who want to continue the fight against Israel,” Feierstein said.
And the symbolism of Haniyeh’s assassination, combined with Israeli attacks on a senior Hezbollah figure this week in Lebanon, raises the risk of an escalated reaction from Iran and its proxies across the region.
“This is a huge embarrassment for Iran. This is happening when Haniyeh was a guest of Iran during the inauguration of the new Iranian president, and the Israelis caught him, this is a huge embarrassment,” said Ghaith al-Omari, a senior researcher at the Institute from Washington.
Al-Omari said the attack on Iran also complicates Hezbollah’s calculation about its response to Israel’s attack in Beirut on Tuesday, which killed a senior commander who Israel said was responsible for a rocket attack on the city of Majdal Shams, in northern Israel on Saturday that killed 12 children. .
“Before that, they would have reacted in a limited way, against Israel for the assassination of Fuad Shukr,” al-Omari continued, referring to the top Hezbollah commander and Iranian ally, whom Israel claimed responsibility for assassinating on Sunday.
“Now I feel like they’re going to have to react more comprehensively.”
Neomi Neumann, a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute and former head of the Israel Security Agency’s Shin Bet research unit, said Israel is sending a clear message to Iran by striking Haniyeh in Tehran: that Jerusalem holds the Islamic Republic responsible for all the actions of their proxies – Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen.
“I don’t think we’re talking about revenge now, we’re talking about design, the new deterrence and the new relationship in the Middle East,” she said.
“The call that reaches Haniyeh in Iran is a message to Iran: we know that you are the head of this coalition and coordinate and direct these representatives. This was a good target.
All eyes are now on how Iran responds. In April, the US helped coordinate a coalition of European, Arab and Gulf countries to help defend Israel against an unprecedented Iranian attack, launched in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of two Iranian generals in a Damascus suburb.
“I think the US could try to send private messages to the Iranians and try to get them not to take extreme measures. They will look for some way to retaliate, whether, again, through proxies or directly, hard to see,” Feierstein said.
“For the Saudis and the other Gulf states, they, like [the U.S.]have been particularly concerned about the possibility of drawing Iran into the conflict, which they do not want to see and which would have implications for their security.”
The Biden administration sees a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas as the best way to calm general tensions in the region – with Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah previously saying the group would keep fire on Israel if fighting in Gaza ended.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday that attacks in Lebanon and Iran “did not help” reduce regional temperatures.
The US also wants to use the ceasefire to transition to a Palestinian civilian administration that would take over the Gaza Strip and lay the groundwork for a path to a Palestinian state.
Such an achievement would pave the way for Saudi Arabia to establish ties with Israel, cementing a new security partnership to counter Iran’s malign influence and activity in the Middle East.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long been criticized for prioritizing the military campaign against Hamas over diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire. During a high-level visit to Washington last week, Netanyahu barely mentioned efforts to reach a deal in a speech to Congress, even as families of hostages said they left a meeting between the prime minister and President Biden optimistic that a agreement was within reach.
Still, Israeli officials have made clear that no Hamas leader is off limits and that Haniyeh’s trip to Tehran could have provided an opportunity that Israel would be unlikely to see happen again.
“I can’t say it’s a bad thing that Haniyeh is no longer with us, but many of us wonder if now is the right time to do so,” says Maya Roman, whose cousin Carmel Gat remains captive in Gaza.
“Netanyahu has long argued that military pressure will work. I have to say that, personally, I was quite skeptical about this and I think that the damage that we are seeing to the Palestinian population is, in my opinion, wrong,” she continued.
“This is your last chance to prove that military pressure is the way to secure a deal. And it seems that so far this is not the direction it is heading. I will be very happy to be proven wrong. I really hope I’m proven wrong.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
