Iran and its representatives promise to punish Israel for the apparent assassination of Hamas’s main political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, bringing the two countries closer to an all-out war in the Middle East.
Israel, which did not acknowledge the attack on Iran, said one of its main objectives in the war against Hamas is the death of its top leaders, including Haniyeh.
But Haniyeh’s death on Iranian soil, just over three months after Iran fired directly at Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones in an unprecedented attack, is a major escalation in the already escalating conflict across the Middle East.
It also comes just a day after Israel killed the top military leader of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon’s capital Beirut, where war has threatened to break out for months.
Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the risk of a regional war is growing, which he speculated would begin with a larger conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
“It would evolve into Iranian involvement because Iran could not stand by and watch [Hezbollah] decimated by the Israelis,” he said of a broader war. “I don’t think we’re going there. I think this is probably leading to a series of episodic confrontations, which could get quite intense.”
Asher Kaufman, professor of history and peace studies at the University of Notre Dame, said that “by targeting these two important leaders, the Israeli government has demonstrated that it is willing to run the risk of all-out war.”
“We are certainly closer to a downward spiral today than we were yesterday,” Kaufman said in an email. “It appears that all parties, including Israel, are not interested in a full-scale war, but at the same time, they all continue to move towards that possibility. The Middle East is, by far, in a moment of extreme fragility and uncertainty regarding the future.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised “severe punishment” for Wednesday’s attack that killed Haniyeh and his bodyguard at his residence while he was in Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran’s newly elected president.
“After this bitter and tragic event that occurred within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge,” Khamenei said. said on social platform.
Khamenei, as recently as Wednesday, ordered his forces to respond, according to The New York Times.
Hamas and other Iranian-backed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, also quickly condemned Israel for Haniyeh’s killing and promised retaliation for the attack.
Haniyeh’s attack showcased the vast capabilities of Israeli intelligence and exposed Tehran’s weakness in defending the nation, putting pressure on Iran to respond with force.
But experts say Tehran likely will not have the resources or appetite for another massive attack on Israel, as it did in April. That attack followed the deaths of several members of the Tehran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps paramilitary group, which Israeli forces attacked near the Iranian Embassy in Syria.
Instead, Iran will be able to respond through its representatives. The most likely attack will come from Lebanon, where Hezbollah has been firing artillery and rockets at Israel for almost 10 months, in a campaign linked to the Israeli war against Hamas in Gaza.
Hezbollah may already be mulling a response after an Israeli attack on Tuesday in Beirut killed Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man and top military adviser to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. This Israeli attack occurred in response to a Hezbollah rocket attack on a soccer field in Israel that left 12 children and teenagers dead.
Still, Iran may not want to risk Hezbollah, its main proxy, in a broader fight with Israel, especially as Tehran has sought to avoid a broader war to preserve its proxies as a bulwark against Israel. Other possibilities for Iranian retaliation include a single strike or the targeted killing of an Israeli official.
Gene Moran, a national security expert and retired U.S. Navy destroyer captain, said he expects Iran to respond directly and that the outcome could be very different from the April attack, which saw Israel and allied forces completely defeat an Iranian barrage of drones and rockets.
“This is a sovereignty issue in Tehran,” said Moran, now an associate professor at Florida State University. “My first thought upon seeing this [Israel] The attack I made in Tehran was that this is the ultimate, ‘I can put my feet up on your coffee table whenever I want’ kind of message, and that’s just not going to be well received.
The US and Israel are likely preparing for a potential response, shifting assets and forces across the region and intensifying intelligence gathering. In the event of a major attack on Israel, the US is expected to help defend its ally. When Iran attacked in April, US forces, along with Arab nations in the region, intervened to defend Israel.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Wednesday that the US would “certainly help” Israel if it is attacked.
“You saw us do this in April. You can expect to see us do it again,” said Austin. “But we don’t want any of that to happen.”
Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza has devastated the group responsible for a deadly attack on October 7 that killed around 1,200 people in southern Israel. Hamas also took around 250 hostages.
Hamas lost thousands of fighters in the war, which killed more than 39,000 people in Gaza, according to health officials who do not distinguish between combatants and non-combatants.
Throughout the war, Israel attacked dozens of Hamas leaders and, in June, may have killed the main military commander, Mohammed Deif, although his death has not been confirmed. Hamas’s main leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, remains at large.
Haniyeh’s death is the biggest blow ever to Hamas, which is unlikely to be able to respond with any significant force after losing its strength in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to take a victory lap on Wednesday, saying in a video speech that he had achieved significant results in the war despite pressure to end the conflict.
“We achieved all this in the last few months because we did not surrender, because we made some very courageous decisions despite strong internal and external pressures,” he said.
Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer, said Israel was “increasing the risks” by attacking Haniyeh on Iranian soil.
“They are basically telling the Iranians that we are willing, able and ready for any kind of [conflict] but now we are taking the lead, now we are taking control,” he said of Israeli thinking. “We are the ones who shuffle the cards in the game.”
Haniyeh’s death and any Iranian or proxy response will likely be a major setback in negotiations to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and release the remaining 116 hostages – around 44 considered dead – still held in the territory.
The US, which said it was not involved in the attack on Haniyeh, continues to reiterate its calls for a ceasefire and a hostage release agreement, even after the attacks in Beirut and Tehran.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday that Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Iran complicate negotiations.
“These reports from the last 24, 48 hours certainly don’t help the temperature drop,” Kirby said. “It certainly doesn’t make the task of achieving that outcome any easier.”
Sina Azodi, a visiting scholar and professor of international affairs at George Washington University, said the developments do not necessarily “kill” the prospects for a ceasefire agreement.
“But this will significantly compromise the possibility of reaching a ceasefire,” he said, “because it really ties the hands of anyone who is interested in making any concessions to the Israelis at a time when the political leadership has just been assassinated by the Israelis.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
