Key takeaways from Israel’s calibrated attack on Iran

The Israeli military struck near a major air base and nuclear facility in Iran on Friday morning, in what appeared to be its first military response to Tehran’s weekend attack.

Iranian authorities claimed that the attack, which included at least three drones, hit their military base near the central city of Isfahan. But they also said the attack was ineffective, appearing to downplay the incident.

Meanwhile, Israel also had a muted reaction to what it said was a limited response to Tehran to avoid escalating tensions between the two countries.

Here are the key takeaways from the attack:

Strike has been calibrated to prevent escalation

Israel’s attack follows the unprecedented Iranian drone and missile attack on the country on April 13, which Tehran said was in retaliation for Israel’s airstrike on the Iranian Consulate in Syria on April 1.

Although Israel and Iran have long been fighting a parallel war, Tehran’s attack – which included hundreds of missiles and drones, almost all of which were intercepted – was the country’s first direct military attack on Israel.

Israeli authorities last week threatened a powerful response, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejecting allies’ calls for restraint.

“I want to be clear: we will make our decisions ourselves. The State of Israel will do everything necessary to defend itself,” said Netanyahu during a meeting of his Cabinet.

But on Friday, following the relatively small drone attack, Israeli authorities remained silent.

The President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, also warned that the “slightest” attack on his country would trigger a “massive and harsh” response. But hours after Israel’s attack, there were no public calls for retaliation.

Israel’s relatively small response was calculated to prevent retaliation from spiraling further out of control, analysts said.

“The goal was to restore deterrence and discourage any further Iranian attacks on the Israeli homeland,” wrote Richard Haass, the president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. “But the Israeli action was also calibrated to facilitate Iran’s non-response. The Israeli government is not trumpeting what happened.”

And Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, said Israel only sought to demonstrate to Iran what it could do, without actually doing it.

“By choosing to respond in a limited manner, Israel remained within the gray zone of covert operations, allowing Iran to absorb the attack without the need to retaliate and escalate further, while also signaling to Tehran that its much larger overt operation would not managed to dissuade him. ” Vaez posted on the social platform.

Warning shot towards Iran’s nuclear facilities

The area Israel chose to attack hosts a number of Iranian military installations, including four small nuclear research facilities, the nearby Natanz uranium enrichment site, an air base containing fighter planes and a missile production plant. A Russian-made S-300 air defense battery is also believed to be in Isfahan.

Although Israel’s attack hit the air base, Iran said it did not cause any significant damage to the site and did not affect the nuclear complex.

And satellite images obtained by CNN showed no apparent destruction at the military site.

But the attack’s specific location and retrained scope seemed to be a clear message from Israel to Iran: We can hit where it hurts, according to former Defense Secretary Mark Esper.

“It wasn’t about destroying Iranian infrastructure or killing Iranians, it was about sending a message,” Esper said on CNN on Friday. “The message is that ‘we can touch you, we can reach deep into Iran and we can reach very sensitive places’.”

Other defense experts made the same assessment.

“Iran’s response to the attack in Damascus was a massive escalation. What we are seeing so far tonight is a very restrained response from Israel with a poignant message: Israel can attack anywhere it wants in Iran and it doesn’t need 350 missiles and drones to do it,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center. on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, wrote on X.

USA stays on the sidelines

Before Israel’s attack, President Biden advised Netanyahu to show restraint in any response to Iran’s previous drone and missile attack, suggesting that a counterattack may not be necessary given the successful interception of Iran’s missiles and drones.

But US officials were not convinced that Israel would do nothing and reportedly asked the ally for advance warning of any planned retaliation.

Following Friday’s attack, the White House remained silent on the incident, reflecting its desire to maintain some distance from its ally’s actions.

“I’m not going to talk or speculate on any of the reports that are out there,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Friday.

“We do not want to see this conflict escalate. We continue to consult with our allies and partners, including in the region, to further reduce the risk of escalation in the region,” she said.

Other American officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, sought to make clear that Washington had nothing to do with Israel’s choice.

“The United States has not been involved in any offensive operations,” Blinken said Friday at a meeting of foreign ministers from Group of Seven countries in Capri, Italy.

“We have seen Israel being targeted by an unprecedented attack, but our focus has been, of course, to ensure that Israel can defend itself effectively, but also to reduce tensions, avoiding conflicts. And that continues to be our focus,” she added.

Laura Kelly contributed.