Arizona House Speaker Finds Himself at Center of Abortion Rights Tornado

Arizona State House Speaker Ben Toma (R) is facing a reckoning as he tries to deal with the fallout from the Arizona Supreme Court ruling that imposed an 1864 abortion ban.

Since last week’s ruling, Toma has twice helped block efforts by House Democrats to repeal the ban on procedural grounds.

Toma is facing pressure from national Republicans, including former President Trump and Kari Lake, who want to see the Civil War-era ban repealed, which would result in the reinstatement of a 15-week ban passed in 2022.

But Toma is also running for Congress in a crowded Republican primary, where voters and anti-abortion groups are unlikely to reward him for pledging in favor of a less restrictive abortion ban.

Like many other conservatives across the country, Toma and Republicans in the Arizona Legislature have long believed that abortion is immoral and should be banned. However, the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade showed how the issue can be nuanced for both Republicans and Democrats.

Last year, Toma defended the 1864 law in an amicus brief before the state Supreme Court.

But those beliefs are now colliding with the political reality that there is no safe position for Republicans to take on the abortion issue. The backlash against the territorial ban could topple conservative majorities in the state and hurt Trump’s campaign in the crucial swing state.

“Abortion is a very complicated topic. It is ethically morally complex. I understand that we have deeply held beliefs. And I would ask everyone in this chamber to respect the fact that some of us believe that abortion is actually the murder of children,” Toma said on the Arizona House floor Wednesday as he voted to block Democrats from taking the revocation project to the plenary. .

Toma says there is no rush to vote on a repeal because no bill can come into force until 90 days after the end of that year’s Legislature. Lawmakers still have unfinished business, including approving a budget, so a postponement is not imminent.

Arizona became the latest battleground state over abortion access when the state Supreme Court upheld a Civil War-era law that bans nearly all abortions in the state except in cases to save the mother’s life. The law also imposes prison sentences for doctors who perform abortions.

A day before the decision, Trump tried to defuse the issue by saying that states are making their own policies on abortion.

But after the Arizona court ruling, the former president tried to temper his apparent support for letting states decide. He told reporters the decision went too far and suggested it “will be corrected.”

Senate hopeful Lake, a Trump ally, also opposed the decision and was personally lobbying Arizona lawmakers to repeal the law.

Despite pressure, Toma helped block two attempts to allow the state House to consider repealing the 1864 law. In the most recent attempt, only one Republican, state Rep. Matt Gress (R), voted alongside Democrats.

On the state Senate side, two Republicans voted alongside Democrats to waive the rules and allow legislation that would repeal the 1864 law to pass.

Toma signaled the effort would go nowhere in the lower house in an interview with Axios earlier this week.

State Rep. David Cook (R) said he believes there are enough Republicans in the House who will support a repeal bill as early as next week when the Legislature reconvenes, even if Toma continues to oppose it.

He told The Hill there has been no official message from Republican Party leaders.

“This decision was the most difficult to make in my entire eight years in the Legislature,” Cook said. “On Wednesday, I firmly believe the repeal bill will reach the council and be voted on in the House.”

GOP strategists who know Toma said they hope he stays the course and continues to oppose repealing the 1864 law.

“For him, everything is fine. Since [members don’t override him], he’s fine with it. And if he is defeated, well, Ben Toma looks good because he is doing everything he can to keep the territorial law in place, which is probably what Republican primary voters in his district want,” said Republican strategist Barrett Marson , from Arizona. .

Kirk Adams, former Arizona Republican House speaker, said Toma is trying to navigate personal and competing political headwinds.

While Toma could benefit from opposing the repeal of the pre-state ban in the GOP congressional primary for a Republican-leaning seat, keeping it in place could cost state Republicans their majority. Both chambers of the Arizona Legislature have one-seat Republican majorities.

“This is exactly the dilemma of running in the congressional primary and being speaker of the House, because those two interests collide,” Adams explained. “There’s no question that not repealing this law puts the majority at risk, at risk, right, and it will hurt members in those swing districts.”

Stan Barnes, a Republican consultant who previously served in the Arizona state Senate, said even the most ardent anti-abortion lawmakers will have to reach a compromise if they want some kind of restrictions on abortion.

“Pro-life people can see that if we go into the election with the 1864 law and 24 weeks on the ballot, 24 weeks will win,” Barnes said, referring to a likely ballot measure that would protect abortion to the point of viability.

“The pro-life movement is having a moment, but what’s the point if it lasts six months?”

As Republicans weigh their options, a leaked slideshow that circulated among Republican state lawmakers this week proposed offering a counter-referendum to the ballot measure that Democrats are likely to get on this year’s November ballot, which would enshrine abortion protections. in the state constitution.

If both chambers of the Legislature manage to approve the same text, it will automatically be voted on in November.

Cook said the Republican caucus is making progress on a potential path forward and would support a referendum that would ban abortion after 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest and to save the life of the mother.

“But it is difficult to gather the votes. Because we have people who don’t vote for anything,” he said.

Arizona political consultant Max Fose said political interest often wins. But he noted that continued opposition to the repeal, even in the face of a national outcry, could be a way for Toma to publicize his staunch anti-abortion credentials.

“Toma is in trouble, which is also an opportunity for him politically. This is a way for Toma to stand out in the Republican primary with voters who are…more than likely 1,000 percent pro-life,” said Fose, a longtime campaign worker for the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz).

But “this is a competing interest with what Donald Trump and Kari Lake want, that this is not a driving force for Democrats in the general election.”

Some members of the Republican Party argue that abortion is not as easily negotiable as other issues might be.

Former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.), who previously served as assistant majority leader in the state Senate before being elected to Congress, said Toma is following his conscience, not primary politics.

“There are so many things — I mean, immigration, you name it, there are so many things that people can negotiate,” Salmon said. “But life for some, if this is an intense, deep moral issue for you, it’s not something you just use as a throwaway card. It’s not political like Kari Lake and Trump are doing.”