Will abortion turn Florida from red to blue?

Democrats hope the fight for reproductive rights can turn Florida from red to blue in the fall.

Once a quintessential swing state, Florida has changed in the Trump era, with the politics of former president and Republican governor Ron DeSantis defining it.

Democrats think that could change as these policies go too far with voters, and point in particular to the new law banning access to abortion six weeks into pregnancy as a potential turning point.

“They’re going to be held accountable in November, and if that means we’re flipping a lot of seats, it’s because the people of our state realize that the Republicans, the MAGA extremists, have taken us in such a dangerous direction and they want to bring new leaders into the fold,” he said. Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried.

Last week, Florida Democrats took advantage of the state’s six-week abortion ban going into effect, with Vice President Harris traveling to Jacksonville on Wednesday to mark the event.

The Biden campaign has already presented its state leadership team and, in a memo, noted that the Sunshine State is “not an easy state to win,” but it is winnable for Biden.

“This is real,” said Christian Ulvert, a Florida-based Democratic strategist who served as a senior adviser to Biden’s 2020 campaign in the state. “When they take these steps, it means they are preparing to make Florida a priority.”

Meanwhile, abortion rights advocates are preparing to promote a November ballot measure known as Amendment 4, which would enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution up to 24 weeks of pregnancy, something that has been done in other swing states. red.

“It’s part of an electoral strategy. When you look at a big map, there is offense and defense, and there is no doubt that because of Amendment 4, Republicans will be on defense in Florida in a way they didn’t think they were,” Ulvert said.

Democrats also say they expect the issue to play a role in the Florida Senate race between current Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Florida).

“We have a lot of issues and challenges facing our state right now, but I can honestly say that everywhere I’ve gone and every trip I’ve been taking for a while, we’re preparing for this. moment and it’s an important issue,” Mucarsel-Powell told The Hill. “If it’s not the top concern, it’s definitely the top two or three concerns of people of all political affiliations.”

Mucarsel-Powell accused Scott of supporting a national abortion ban and said an abortion ban could lead to restrictions on in vitro fertilization (IVF) and contraception.

“It’s extremely dangerous and we’re seeing it happen across the country,” she said.

Scott’s campaign denies that he supports a national ban and has fired back at Mucarsel-Powell by painting her stance on abortion as extreme, something other conservatives and Republicans have done in response to Democratic attacks on the issue.

“Everyone knows that Senator Rick Scott supports the right to life. Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell did not. Floridians agree that there should be some reasonable limits on abortion,” said Will Hampson, a spokesman for Scott’s campaign. “Senator Scott was very clear about his position: no national bans, with consensus at 15 weeks with limitations on rape, incest and life of the mother. Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell takes an extreme view, opposing any commonsense limits on abortion.”

Republicans and other political observers are skeptical that the issue will have enough of an impact to change the political makeup of the state.

At this week’s press conference, DeSantis called the idea that the Biden-Harris ticket would be competitive in Florida “a hoax.”

“”First of all – we will have a million more registered Republicans than Democrats by Election Day,” DeSantis said, attacking Democrats over inflation, the southern border and conflicts abroad.

Republicans also point to Florida voters’ history of electing conservative candidates and supporting left-leaning ballot measures such as minimum wage and medical marijuana measures.

“I can see that it is very possible that this election change reaches 60%, the threshold, and that Donald Trump and Rick Scott still win the state of Florida,” said a Florida-based Republican strategist.

Regardless, Democrats have an uphill climb. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as “likely Republican.” Former President Obama was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state in 2012, and Fried was the last state Democrat to win Florida, in 2018, as agriculture commissioner. Since then, Florida Republicans have racked up victories at the polls, setting an example for Republicans in other states.

Partisan and nonpartisan political observers say reproductive rights will likely play a role in improving Democratic turnout in the state, but Republicans and neutral observers say they doubt the issue will do enough to turn Republican voters or convince independents to vote Democratic. .

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“I expect to see Democratic turnout increase from the level it reached in 2022, when Ron DeSantis won by nearly 20 points,” said Aubrey Jewett, an associate professor at the University of Central Florida’s School of Politics, Security and International Affairs.

However, Jewett left the door open to the possibility that greater Democratic turnout could help the party’s candidates in state legislative races.

“It may be a stretch to think that Joe Biden could win Florida, but it’s not a stretch to think that Democratic turnout will improve as a result of this at the polls, especially compared to 2022,” he said. “And that could help in some other races.”