Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director Robert Redfield said he predicts a bird flu pandemic will happen, it’s just a question of when it will happen.
Redfield joined NewsNation Friday to discuss the growing concern about bird flu, as the virus has been detected in dozens of cattle across the country and the World Health Organization has identified the first human death in Mexico.
“I do think it’s very likely that this will happen at some point, it’s not a question of if, it’s more a question of when we’ll have a bird flu pandemic,” Redfield said.
He also noted that bird flu has a “significant mortality” when it enters humans compared to COVID-19. Redfield predicts mortality is “probably between 25 and 50 percent mortality.” NewsNation noted that the COVID death rate was 0.6 percent.
In late May, the CDC identified the third human case of someone diagnosed with the virus since March. None of the three cases among farm workers were associated with each other. Symptoms include cough without fever and pink eye.
There is still no evidence that the virus is spreading between humans. Redfield said he knows exactly what needs to happen for the virus to get to this point because he has done laboratory research on the subject.
Scientists have discovered that five amino acids must change in the key receptor for bird flu to gain the propensity to bind to a human receptor “and then be able to jump from human to human” as COVID-19 has done, Redfield said.
“Once the virus gains the ability to bind to the human receptor and then jump from human to human, that’s when we’ll have the pandemic,” he said. “And like I said, I think it’s just a matter of time.”
Redfield noted that he doesn’t know how long it will take for the five amino acids to change, but since it’s being detected in cattle herds across the country, he’s a little concerned.
More than 40 cattle herds across the country have confirmed cases of the virus. The CDC is tracking wastewater treatment sites to identify where the virus is, but the agency said the general public’s current risk of contracting the virus is low.
Since cattle live near pigs and the virus is able to evolve from pigs to humans, there is reason to be concerned. Still, he argued, there is a greater risk of the disease being grown in the laboratory.
“I know exactly which amino acids to change because in 2012, against my recommendation, the scientists who did these experiments published them,” he said. “So the recipe for how to make bird flu highly infectious to humans is now available.”
NewsNation is owned by Nexstar Media Group, which also owns The Hill.
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