The Dobbs decision two years ago woke up Democrats and reproductive rights activists, with the seismic shifts made possible by the Supreme Court’s action offering instant motivation.
The decision immediately turned the fight the other way, galvanizing supporters of abortion rights and making it a defining election issue. And since then, the anti-abortion movement has grappled with a new reality it may not have been prepared for — the public largely supports abortion rights and opposes significant efforts to ban or restrict the procedure.
“It’s setting the agenda up and down the ticket. Because it’s such a stark contrast and voters think they can actually solve the problem,” said Celinda Lake, a lead pollster for Biden’s 2020 campaign. “It’s a yes or no question.”
At the same time, the Republican Party has struggled to unite around a messaging strategy to describe its next steps.
“There are some disagreements that I see in the anti-abortion space, but what I do know is that they have been very clear about their desire to end access to abortion…their disagreement is how they get there,” said Nourbese Flint, president. from the abortion rights group All Above All.
“So I wouldn’t classify it as disorder. I would classify it as them trying to figure out how to send messages,” Flint said.
Abortion rights activists said they feel more organized now, with much larger groups of supporters than before Dobbs.
Many said they tried to sound the alarm about coordinated conservative efforts to overturn Roe, but some admitted they were complacent.
“I think you know, one of the things we thought about post-Dobbs, post-Roe, is how we didn’t have perhaps the best strategy for absorbing people who were interested in the issue and activating them when we didn’t have a crisis,” said Lupe M. Rodriguez, executive director of the National Latino Institute for Reproductive Justice.
Reproductive rights advocates argue they have struggled to learn how to keep voters engaged in every post-Roe election, with the hope that 2024 will be no different.
“We learned a lot about how to work with people over the long term, to really find ways to engage people on these issues,” Rodriguez said.
On the other hand, anti-abortion activists are finding their priorities sidelined by the same politicians they have long supported and influenced. For political expediency, the Republican Party has concluded that harsh anti-abortion policies are hurting candidates in key races.
GOP lawmakers and candidates, including former President Trump, now say decisions about abortion should be left to the states — a stark departure from previous efforts to regulate it at the federal level.
Anti-abortion groups said they were disappointed by this rhetoric but remained committed to helping elect Republicans.
One of the most powerful of these groups, SBA Pro-Life America, wants to spend at least $92 million to reach 10 million voters in swing states this cycle. Their message: Democrats want to repeal abortion bans and pass laws that guarantee access to abortion at any stage of pregnancy.
After a surprising number of Democratic victories for candidates running on the issue of abortion in the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans in 2024 had to choose between doubling down on restrictions or backtracking on the issue.
It is true that Republican Party voters rank abortion much lower on their list of priorities than inflation, crime and immigration.
Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said abortion performs better when it is an independent election issue rather than when it is used as an attack against a popular Republican Party candidate.
For example, five statewide ballot measures in 2022 were all in favor of abortion rights, even in red states like Kentucky and Montana. But conservative anti-abortion governors in Ohio and Georgia also won.
“I think [abortion] is an important and potent issue for Democrats. But it’s just not a single issue that will drive massive voter choice, it will affect it, but it won’t be determinative,” Franklin said.
Democrats want to maintain pressure on Republicans and build on their success from 2022 onwards.
In the wake of restrictive abortion laws in states like Arizona, Alabama and Florida, Democrats have been unified in their message. The laws were passed by Republicans and were only possible because Donald Trump’s Supreme Court justices overturned Roe v. Wade.
Abortion access is a patchwork of state laws and court decisions, and nearly two dozen states have bans or restrictions in place. Abortion advocates want to directly link the experiences of women in these states to those of Republicans.
“Every time I feel like this issue might be going away, we hear another story of how it’s affecting people’s lives, their health and their ability to have a healthy pregnancy,” said Cecile Richards, former president of Planned Parenthood and co-chair of the super liberal PAC American Bridge 21st Century. “Republicans have an unsustainable and unsustainable position on these issues and I think they will be held accountable.”
In the Senate, Democrats are working to highlight Republican opposition to reproductive rights by holding votes on issues such as in vitro fertilization, access to contraception and the right to abortion.
“They’re trying to remind everyone where the parties stand, and that has largely been seen as a Democratic strength and not as a base that Republicans prefer to play on right now, because there are a lot of other issues that we’re ahead of the curve on, like like the economy, immigration, foreign policy, energy,” said GOP strategist Ron Bonjean, co-founder of Rokk Solutions.
Senate Republicans tried to pass a bill earlier this month, which was blocked by Democrats, that would create an incentive for politicians not to pass legislation banning in vitro fertilization but would not prevent a court from restricting the procedure.
Senate Republicans also signed a pledge saying they “strongly support” continued nationwide access to in vitro fertilization, despite GOP efforts in states like Alabama to block it.
Democrats argue they will enter November unified in their messaging on abortion rights.
“Everywhere from the six-week abortion ban to in vitro fertilization — Republicans are everywhere, they can’t really settle on anything in particular that satisfies all corners. That’s where Democrats have come together on this issue and upholding women’s reproductive rights and the right to choose,” said former Rep. Joe Crowley (DN.Y.).
He added: “When it comes to fundamental belief in terms of what attracts voters, this is one of those issues that year after year has done that.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
