The team scores with Summer Lee’s victory, but faces a long primary calendar

Rep. Summer Lee’s primary victory over a more moderate Democrat in Pennsylvania this week offered a boost to progressives and increased urgency for those targeting “The Squad.”

It was a promising result for other members of the Squad, especially Democratic Reps. Jamaal Bowman (N.Y.) and Cori Bush (Mo.), who are trying to fend off their own formidable primary threats amid an influx of spending from pro groups. -Israel seeking to overthrow them.

“I expect we’ll see a doubling down of some of the races they’ve already invested in,” Matt Duss, a former senior foreign policy adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), said of organizations seeking to oust the Squad. “And we will see progressives bending over backwards to defend.”

The Israel-Hamas war has highlighted significant divisions within the Democratic Party, as progressives demand a ceasefire and criticize both Israel and the Biden administration’s handling of the crisis.

Lee, one of the first legislators to call for a ceasefire, fended off a challenge Tuesday from Edgewood Councilman Bhavini Patel with a lead of about 20 points, according to Decision Desk HQ. Patel, a more moderate Democrat who accused Lee of anti-Semitism, was supported by Republican Party billionaire donor Jeffrey Yass, but Lee amassed a sizable war chest.

“It’s a clear indication that progressives who can put together significant money and significant ground operations can win races against almost anyone,” said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf, arguing that Lee’s victory fuels “urgency” and “intensity” for “ those who want to maintain power.” the Squad going.”

“The question then is… is the campaign in Pittsburgh an indication of where this will lead? It’s an example,” said Sheinkopf.

Progressives should view Lee’s Pennsylvania primary victory as “a good sign heading into the election,” said Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins. “If you are Bowman, you are feeling much better the day after [primary] election than the day before.”

But while Lee’s victory is a general boost for liberals, there is no guarantee that his fellow Squad members will cruise to victory.

“A win or a loss does not signal a trend,” said Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau. “Each of the Squadron’s districts is different. Summer Lee’s district looks nothing like AOC’s district, and it looks nothing like Cori Bush’s district, and so on.”

Notably, the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a prominent pro-Israel group, did not participate in Lee’s primary race this year – although it invested heavily in supporting her Republican rival when she first ran for the backseat. in 2022.

The group has backed challengers in the Squad’s key races and reportedly plans to spend $100 million to target progressive candidates. The United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC, raised more than $49 million in the first quarter of this year, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.

In New York’s 16th Congressional District, Bowman faces Westchester County Executive George Latimer, and in Missouri’s 1st District, Bush faces St. County District Attorney. AIPAC is supporting and contributing to both challengers.

Extensive research into these races has not been conducted, but some results signal potential problems for progressive incumbents. A February poll by a Republican firm showed Bush down 22 points. AND a March survey conducted by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman for Israel’s Democratic Majority showed that Bowman dropped 17.

AIPAC is also currently “evaluating other primary contests involving detractors of the U.S.-Israel relationship,” spokesperson Marshall Wittmann told The Hill in an email.

“We will be involved in races where our involvement can have the greatest impact. The stakes are enormous in the upcoming elections and the voice of the pro-Israel movement will be heard,” said Wittman.

The group notably spent $4.6 million, records show, to oppose Dave Min, whose campaign to replace Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) in the House was Supported by the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Min supposedly it was critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but did not call for a permanent ceasefire.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) also faces a primary challenge in Minneapolis, part of Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District, from moderate Democrat and former councilman Don Samuels, who she defeated in 2022 by just two points.

Omar was one of the original members of the Squad, while Lee and Bowman were later additions; the group is an informal label involving about eight House progressives.

Despite the energy behind those who would expel Squadron members, strategists stressed that it is difficult to beat incumbents. Sheinkopf noted that Archer It is Bush both operate in areas with significant minority communities.

Lee referenced his fellow progressives in danger during his acceptance speech on Tuesday night.

“I don’t apologize when people say ‘are you in the Squad?’ Whatever, yes. These are my people. … We got this win here in Pittsburgh, but this is just the first step. This was the first race. So we need to make sure we have that same energy and we’re going to take it and take it to New York next,” Lee said. “And when we’re done with Jamaal Bowman, we’re going to go to St. Louis where we’re going to make sure that… Cori Bush get over the finish line.”

A coalition of progressive groups launched “Reject AIPAC” last month with the aim of protecting targeted lawmakers.

“After failing to find a candidate corrupt enough to run on their agenda and seeing how connected Summer Lee is to the community, AIPAC sat out this election. Now, we are preparing to face AIPAC in the Jamaal Bowman race,” said Michelle Weindling, political director of the Sunrise Movement, one of the groups in that coalition.

Bowman’s New York primary will take place in mid-June, and Bush’s Missouri race will take place in early August.

Foreign policy is often ignored in presidential cycles, but tensions surrounding the war in Gaza and US support for Israel appear poised to escalate into electoral disputes.

President Biden has faced significant protest movements and poll boycotts in several state primaries, making war a political liability that could complicate his race in a tight rematch with former President Trump.

The incumbent has also been interrupted at several campaign stops by pro-Palestine protesters — some organized by the “Ditch Biden” movement, which hopes to punish the president by withholding votes on Election Day, even if it means clearing the way for Trump to seize the Oval Office.

“I think it’s true that foreign policy rarely plays a major role in elections or voters’ decisions. But I think this issue – the issue of Israel, Palestine, the issue of Palestinian rights and Gaza, especially – resonates because it’s not just seen as a foreign policy issue. It’s an issue of social and racial justice,” Duss said.

“I think with the level of outrage that we’re seeing… it’s really something that the party is going to have to address in a better way than it has done so far.”