Knives Out for Bob Good: 5 Things to Watch in Tuesday’s Primary

Voters in Georgia, Oklahoma and Virginia will go to the polls on Tuesday to weigh in on a series of key congressional primaries and runoffs.

In Virginia, a Trump-backed primary challenge threatens House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R), while in Oklahoma, Trump-backed Rep. Tom Cole (R) faces a primary challenge from the right. In Georgia, a candidate convicted of a misdemeanor for illegally demonstrating inside the Capitol on January 6, 2021, managed to advance to the runoff.

The contests in the three states will test the incumbents’ staying power and the potency behind former President Trump’s support as they set up critical showdowns in November.

Here are five things to watch.

Is this the end for Bob Good?

A contentious primary in Virginia could represent the House incumbent’s first loss to a primary challenger this year as Good fights to keep his seat in the 5th Congressional District.

Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) was the first House lawmaker tolose his re-election bidwhen he lost to Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) in a redistricting-driven incumbent primary in Alabama, but House incumbents have had a winning streak in their primaries so far.

But that could change Tuesday night with Good’s race. The conservative lawmaker drew the former president’s ire when he initially supported Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the Republican Party’s White House primary. Although he supported Trump after DeSantis left the presidential race, Trump argued that support came “too late.”

Good’s rival, state Sen. John McGuire (R), now comes into Tuesday with Trump’s endorsement, plus support from former President Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) Majority Committee PAC. The incumbent got on the former House speaker’s bad side when he joined seven other Republicans and all Democrats to remove McCarthy from his House leadership role last year.

More recently, a member of the Freedom Caucus chaired by Good, Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), endorsed McGuire, a stunning move that underscores the political danger the Virginia Republican poses.

Still, Good has some high-profile supporters, including Steve Bannon, an on-and-off Trump ally who was stumped by the incumbent in Virginia earlier this month.

With so many knives drawn for Good, it seems possible that he could become the first legislator to lose to a non-incumbent this cycle.

Do Trump candidates prevail?

The presidential primaries are over, but the presumptive candidates for the White House are looming large as the contests continue to test their endorsement power.

Although Trump is trailing McGuire in Virginia, he issupportstarter Cole at Oklahoma. Cole, a11 mandatesincumbent and chairman of the House Appropriations Committee faces a competitive challenge from well-funded businessman Paul Bondar.

In Georgia’s 3rd Congressional District, former Trump White House political director Brian Jack is running against former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Dugan to replace retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson (R).

Jack is proud of Trumpendorsement, but failed to surpass the 50-point mark to avoid a runoff in last month’s primaries. The winner of Tuesday’s second round will move upagainstDemocrat Maura Keller in November.

Tuesday’s races will again assess whether the former president’s support is enough to get his picks past the primary finish line.

Does a January 6 convict win?

A primary runoff in Georgia’s 2nd Congressional District will be the latest test of whether voters are willing to support a candidate involved in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop, a 16-term incumbent, is expected to face in the fall either Wayne Johnson, a former Trump administration official, or Chuck Hand, who was convicted of a misdemeanor for illegally demonstrating inside the Capitol during the riots.

Johnson emerged from the Republican Party last monthprimarywith about 44 percent of the vote, below the 50-point mark needed to avoid a runoff. Hand reached 32 percent, and while strategists say Bishop is positioned to hold onto his historically blue seat in November, experts say Hand’s support is a notable metric on voter sentiment heading into Jan. 6.

Polls indicate that Republican disapproval of the riots is declining, and Trump has praised the “J6 warriors” throughout the campaign. While the former president condemns his own legal battles as politically motivated, some members of the Republican Party may be willing to ignore the January 6 conviction.

How close are the contested primaries?

The contested primaries in the three states voting on Tuesday could reach the limit and even trigger a runoff in Oklahoma.

Oklahoma, like Georgia, has amajority thresholdto win the primaries. In competitive races like Cole’s in the 4th Congressional District – wherefive candidatesare competing for the Republican Party nomination – the race could be postponed for a second round in August.

A recent Good primary poll conducted by the Virginia Faith and Freedom Coalition found McGuire with a 10-point lead, according to the local news outletWSETbut another 30 percent of voters were still undecided.

Also in Virginia, candidates have emerged in races to replace two outgoing congresswomen, setting up competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle. Half a dozen Republicans and seven Democrats are vying to succeed Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), who is running for governor. The race to retire Rep. Jennifer Wexton’s (D) seat, however, drew adozenDemocratic candidates and four competitors on the Republican side.

The margins in these contested primaries could offer clues about how divided both parties are heading into November.

What is participation like?

Oklahoma and Virginia held their presidential primaries on Super Tuesday in March, and low turnout in the White House races in both states has raised concerns for the rest of the election year.

The state earlier saw Super Tuesday turnout drop from 2020, with a significant drop among Democrats, according tooklahomafalling from more than 300,000 blue voters in last cycle’s primaries to about 91,000 this spring.

In Virginia, turnout was just 6% among Democrats and 11% among Republicans during the state’s Super Tuesday primary, according todataof the Virginia Public Access Project.

But the White House primary race was unusual, with Biden and Trump long seen as inevitable candidates for their respective parties, which could be a positive sign for the non-presidential primaries.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R)said last monththat the Peach State saw higher turnout in its congressional elections last month than in May’s presidential primary. Experts said turnout for Tuesday’s runoff, however, is not expected to break any records.

In states with highly competitive races, participation will be essential to tip the scales at the polls. The number of voters in the Democratic and Republican primaries could offer a sense of voter enthusiasm ahead of the fall.

This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story