Imminent elections across North America could put an end to a decades-long process of integration, as the continent’s three main nations face difficult choices between populism and traditional liberalism.
Interactions between Mexican, North American and Canadian leaders are expected to shape the political and economic future of a free trade zone with complex and lucrative supply lines and consumer markets on the one hand – and increasingly fortified borders on the other. .
On Sunday, Mexico will choose between former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, who shares the centralist and populist vision of outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or a return to the institutionalist structure favored by Mexico’s traditional political parties, former bitter rivals united behind the opposition. candidate Xóchitl Gálvez.
Canada, a country that has yet to get a taste of 21st century populism, will go to the polls on or before October 2025; Right now, liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is sinking in the polls and conservative populist Pierre Poilievre is gaining strength.
And, of course, this November features the clash of heavyweights in the US: President Biden and his traditional liberal approach to governance versus the nationalist populism of former President Trump.
“Elections are important and leaders are important for this purpose. And we have two different types of leaders for each of the three countries, and the incompatibility between them can make a difference,” said Roberta Lajous, a researcher at the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute and a former diplomat who represented Mexico as ambassador to four countries. , including Cuba from 2002 to 2005.
“So we really have to look carefully at the future of North America. We have to see who wins in each of the three countries, because there is a lot at stake. And from the point of view of North America, what is at stake is the possibility of continuing on a path of greater economic integration or on the path to a bumpy path”, added Lajous, who openly supports Gálvez.
In a global trading environment increasingly defined by large trading blocs, North America, under the auspices of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), faces blocs that include the European Economic Area and the Asia Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership in a race to build competitive and sustainable networks of supply chains and consumer markets.
Since the coronavirus pandemic, both Mexico and Canada have overtaken China as the United States’ top trading partners – the US-Mexico and US-Canada trade relations are the two largest bilateral trade relationships in the world.
Migration dominates
But trade is not the center of attention in the US and Mexican elections.
“The relationship in general is very focused on the U.S. seeking to get Mexico to reduce the number of people arriving at the U.S. southern border,” said Stephanie Brewer, Mexico director at the Washington Office of Latin America, a think tank. research and research focused on human rights. defense organization.
Mexico under López Obrador has been a key player in U.S. border policy under Biden and Trump, including increasing or decreasing Mexican immigration enforcement to influence the number of migrants showing up at the U.S.-Mexico border, and agreeing to welcome third parties . nationals of countries expelled by the United States.
That dynamic, or something like it, will likely remain regardless of who wins on Sunday and into November.
“The policies will be different, but I think the underlying common goal of whoever wins the White House is to stop illegal migration to the United States. How this plays out and what policies are implemented will obviously be different depending on who remains in power in the United States, but I believe it doesn’t matter what Mexico will have to deal with on this issue,” said Lila Abed. , interim director of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute.
The core of Trump’s immigration policies, such as Title 42 or the Migrant Protection Protocols – better known as “remain in Mexico” – depended on López Obrador agreeing, sometimes under the threat of tariffs, to take in a number of citizens foreigners.
Biden’s approach has been less forceful, but his administration has avoided criticizing López Obrador at all costs, while enjoying the results of a massive crackdown in Mexico that reduced border encounters from just over 300,000 in December to 179,725 in April.
The administration is believed to be delaying its own asylum crackdown until after Sunday’s election, where Sheinbaum is the heavy favorite.
“Claudia Sheinbaum, when asked about migration policy, emphasized and often limited her responses to the need to address the root causes of migration,” Brewer said.
“And this, of course, has also been an important point of discussion for President López Obrador, while at the same time, López Obrador has, in practice, continually increased containment and detention measures, militarized borders, and imposed security requirements. visa. And currently, the Mexican government is returning large numbers of people from northern Mexico to southern Mexico.”
Brewer added that Gálvez has been especially critical of López Obrador’s acceptance of U.S.-imposed migration policies, whether under threat or through other diplomatic means.
“What we haven’t heard or seen very clearly, from anyone, are plans to really transform these policies or Mexico’s participation in these types of U.S. border policies and to really transform the current model of ‘management’ of quote-unquote migration flows. , because the current model consists of concentrating a huge population of migrants and asylum seekers in Mexico, which is an unsustainable model,” she said.
Who is Claudia Sheinbaum?
If the polls are correct and Sheinbaum wins by a wide margin on Sunday, López Obrador will hand over power to a hand-picked successor who for years has sung the praises of what the current term-limited president calls the “fourth transformation,” the dogmatic basis of his movement to reengineer power structures in Mexico.
Sheinbaum, who frequently touts her scientific credentials as a doctoral energy engineer and environmentalist, became mayor of Mexico City more than a decade after López Obrador left office.
As mayor, she followed López Obrador’s policies, including a controversial emphasis on building urban highways known as the second floors or “second floors” of Mexico City’s existing ring roads.
Sheinbaum described his governing goals as building the second floors of the fourth transformation, leaning heavily on the symbolism surrounding the highly popular López Obrador.
This has led friends and foes alike to wonder whether and to what extent Sheinbaum would distance himself from López Obrador’s most controversial policies.
“We don’t know who Claudia Sheinbaum really is. We don’t know if she will continue to follow word for word everything López Obrador says, or if it will be herself. So we don’t know, um. Second, between the time AMLO began his administration and today, many controversial issues have arisen within the USMCA,” said Lajous.
Beyond migration
Simmering USMCA controversies likely await Mexico’s first female president, whether Gálvez or Sheinbaum, potentially eclipsing even the political relevance of migration in a second Biden or Trump term.
“We would expect the next Mexican president to enact policies to reverse measures that violate the USMCA,” said Abed, referring to a series of López Obrador policies, from imposing state control of energy markets to banning corn. genetically modified.
It is almost certain that Gálvez will adopt a more liberal approach to economic management, especially as the country’s fiscal deficit has soared under López Obrador and his propensity for large pet projects, although both Sheinbaum and Gálvez have promised to maintain direct cash transfer assistance programs. money that appears to have reduced the country’s poverty rates.
Energy policy is already a source of tension between the United States and Mexico, although it has been clouded by discussions over migration.
López Obrador re-emphasized state control of energy production and distribution, supporting the state oil company PEMEX and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE).
“There is an inherent contradiction between what Claudia Sheinbaum has signaled – although not outright stated – regarding what her renewable energy policies would be and the fact that she has explicitly doubled down on the predominant role that PEMEX and the utility CFE would play in its administration. You can’t have your cake and eat it too,” said Arturo Sarukhan, who served as Mexico’s ambassador to the United States from 2007 to 2013.
Concerns about the security of foreign investments and global economic trends have contributed to a slowdown in new foreign investment, with the exception of Chinese investment that seeks to profit from nearshoring while bypassing trade barriers established between Washington and Beijing.
“More than anything, I would like to highlight the following: Chinese investment in Mexico. I think this is a real wake-up call for the United States because it actually puts the national security of the United States at risk in terms of certain technologies, critical infrastructure and sensitive data,” Abed said.
Skepticism about security reforms
One of López Obrador’s most significant legacies will be the expansion of military control in traditional civilian areas, from customs management at borders and ports to the construction and administration of large infrastructure projects.
“I think [Sheinbaum] signaled that it will not make a U-turn regarding the growing invasion of the armed forces on a series of public policy issues that have nothing to do with national security or national defense. I believe that Xóchitl Gálvez would try to control some of the extra functions that López Obrador has assigned to the armed forces in recent years,” Sarukhan said.
But many Mexicans are skeptical of the security policy changes. Since 2006, the military has taken a central role in combating organized crime, with each successive president creating a new national police force that is, in effect, manned by soldiers.
López Obrador’s version of a militarized police force, the National Guard, limited its frontal confrontations with non-state armed groups and instead retreated to a patrol role while imposing its crackdown on migration.
“Gálvez says a priority will be to ensure the National Guard is under civilian command, but we have not heard of proposals that actually deviate significantly from deploying the armed forces on security duties. Claudia Sheinbaum, of course, also committing to continue with the current model of militarization,” said Brewer.
“Again, there are reasons for voters to be skeptical about the extent to which a change in the party in power would actually bring about this change, because the last three administrations – which have been changing parties – have not brought about the necessary change.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
