Migration flows to the United States ebb and flow in parallel with the country’s labor market rigidities, according to a studyanalysis of economic and border encounter databy the Center for Global Development.
According to the study, there is a strong correlation between the number of jobs available per unemployed person — market rigidity — and border encounters, as reported by Customs and Border Protection (CBP), leading to the conclusion that “factors of Attraction, represented by tightness in the U.S. labor market, is a significant determinant of the number of border crossings on the U.S. southwest border.”
This conclusion flies in the face of a national political narrative that is increasingly focused on reducing migration through aggressive enforcement at the U.S.-Mexico border.
“I’m saying two things: first, nobody talks about pull factors and look at this incredible correlation that has survived 25 years,” said Dany Bahar, the economist who wrote the article.
Bahar added that 2 million people a year choose to migrate in the Western Hemisphere, a record number.
“And there’s really nothing that’s happened there in the hemisphere in an order of magnitude that can explain this. I mean, the only thing that went crazy was the job market in the US.”
Although Latin America has undergone political changes since the pandemic, there has not been a violent transfer of power or a generational economic crisis in the region – events that have traditionally triggered greater emigration.
Certain countries such as Venezuela, Cuba and Haiti, all significant contributors to migration, have experienced sustained economic problems, but for the most part the region has returned to pre-pandemic unemployment and GDP per capita rates, according to the report.
“To be clear with these statements, I am not dismissing the fact that there are pressure factors and that they are important determinants of current flows. For example, the political and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela continues and is expected not to be resolved anytime soon, especially since Nicolás Maduro is expected to remain in power even after the neither free nor fair elections in 2024,” Bahar wrote in the newspaper.
“With this in mind, one would expect more Venezuelans to flee the country.”
However, the report’s analysis shows a long-term trend, not necessarily a link developed in the aftermath of the pandemic.
According to Bahar, the correlation has remained throughout the last quarter century, regardless of which party was in power in the United States, but has become even more noticeable since the pandemic.
“Of course, the correlation is stronger in the last few years, in the first few years, but it still exists. This is part of this thing that I show with the different presidents — it’s there, it doesn’t matter who was president — because I also wanted to show the political parties. So the correlation is still there throughout all the years, pretty robust, but I think visually, at least you can really see it after 2018, that was impressive,” Bahar said.
Before 2018, going back to 2014, there was an exceptional disparity between labor market rigidities and border encounters.
“I looked into this more closely, because during the Trump years, whatever he did, [there were] fewer crossings overall,” Bahar said.
“Even in these years, there is still a positive bias between migration and labor market rigidity, you know what I mean? Yes, that relationship still exists, even though everything has happened.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
