Casey faces his most serious election challenge from McCormick

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) is potentially facing his closest race yet, against Republican David McCormick, in what will be one of the key Senate races in November.

In Tuesday’s primary, McCormick is expected to officially become the GOP nominee for the critical seat, setting up a battle with Casey, who is running for his fourth term in the Senate.

The former hedge fund CEO is the candidate the Republican Party wanted to oppose Casey after nominating disappointing general election candidates two years ago.

“It is a difficult climb, but if anyone can do it, [Republicans] we appointed the right person to do this, which is McCormick,” said Republican strategist Samuel Chen. “This is probably the best chance Republicans in Pennsylvania will have to unseat Bob Casey.”

McCormick held several positions in the George W. Bush administration, including deputy national security adviser and undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs. He later served as CEO of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates before stepping down to run for a Senate seat in Pennsylvania in 2022.

He lost the Republican nomination that year to Mehmet Oz by less than 1,000 votes — and Oz lost the general election to the now-Sen. John Fetterman (D). But McCormick has gathered Republican Party support for his candidacy this year and has no opposition for the nomination. He has the support of former President Trump, the state party and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, along with other Republicans.

Pennsylvania-based experts said McCormick could pose the most formidable challenge to Casey in his Senate career, after some relatively easy campaigns.

Veteran Republican political consultant Christopher Nicholas said Casey’s recent election runs have not come close as Election Day approaches, with him running for election “at the right times” in years when Democrats have performed well.

Casey was first elected to the Senate in 2006, a midterm election that saw a blue wave as part of the backlash against the Bush administration. He was re-elected in 2012, when then-President Obama was re-elected and comfortably won Pennsylvania, and in 2018, during the midterm backlash to the Trump administration.

He won each time by comfortable margins, by double digits in 2006 and 2018.

But Nicholas said the political environment in 2024 is not obviously favorable to one party, giving it a more competitive race.

“2024 so far isn’t the best for Republicans or Democrats, so it seems like it’s just more balanced,” he said.

At the same time, Casey has several strengths as a candidate that have served him well in recent years.

Members of both parties acknowledged that Casey is a personally likable senator whose family is an institution in Pennsylvania.

Casey’s father, Bob Casey Sr., served two terms as governor in the 1980s and 1990s.

“He has won more statewide than anyone else in the state currently in office. His father was governor of Pennsylvania, and name recognition is very important in this state,” Chen said.

“He didn’t do anything controversial. It really didn’t rock the boat at all. And so there’s not much to point to and say, ‘Hey, that was a disaster’ or ‘He’s very radical on this issue.’ There really are no gaffes, so to speak, in his career,” he added.

But Chen, who served as an aide to former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), said McCormick could be effective if he was able to brand Casey as a “career politician” who voted largely in line with President Biden’s position.

Democratic strategist Daniel Fee said people say Casey isn’t “flashy,” but Pennsylvania has a history of not picking “big personalities” other than Fetterman. He pointed to Toomey and former senator Arlen Spector.

McCormick campaign communications director Elizabeth Gregory said in a statement that McCormick is “focused” on uniting the party against Casey. She said Casey voted almost entirely for Biden’s “failed agenda,” which has fueled the situation at the southern border, record inflation and harmful energy regulations.

“Pennsylvanians across the commonwealth are joining Dave’s movement to send a 7th generation Pennsylvanian, combat veteran and PA job creator to the Senate to introduce new leadership and new ideas,” she said.

Polls have shown that Casey appears to have an early lead. He led a Franklin & Marshall College poll released this month by 7 points and an Emerson College poll released last month by 4 points.

Nicholas noted that incumbents often have an advantage at this point in the race.

The Hill has reached out to the Casey and McCormick campaigns for comment.

Fee said Democrats have generally performed strongly statewide in recent years since Trump flipped the state as part of his victory in 2016. The only two Republicans in statewide office are the state’s treasurer and auditor general. state.

Since 2016, Pennsylvania Democrats have won races for governor and Senate twice each, and for the state’s attorney general. The party also won control of the state House in 2022, for the first time in more than a decade.

“[Democrats have] I’ve spent a good few years in Pennsylvania since Trump was elected,” Fee said.

Still, Republicans have been making gains in voter registration in recent years, while the number of Democrats has declined in many counties.

Democrats and Republicans said they expect both candidates to be well funded in a tight and intense race.

In a sign of how intense the race could be, McCormick on Thursday took preventative measures it was after a New York Times reporter before the release of a story about McCormick’s past. The story, published on Friday, reported that McCormick made misleading statements about his education, including his statement that he grown up in a farm.

McCormick accused the outlet to “cherry-pick and distort” what he said about his upbringing, noting that he said his family owned a farm and that he had summer jobs baling hay and pruning Christmas trees.

McCormick also faced criticism from opponents who accused him of being a “carpetbagger” for owning a Connecticut home that he had listed as your main address. The Associated Press reported that McCormick’s vote in the 2022 Republican primary was the first in Pennsylvania in 16 years.

McCormick’s campaign has already been he responded noting that his family has lived in Pennsylvania “for generations” and that he currently lives in Pittsburgh.

Republican strategist Josh Novotney said he ultimately expects the issues that will decide the race to be similar to those of two years ago, but especially immigration, which, along with crime, has become a top issue for Republican voters. .

He said abortion will also play a key role, as it did two years ago in the Senate race between Fetterman and Oz and the gubernatorial race between Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) and state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R).

“Even if it’s not on the ballot, and it’s really not a possibility with the governor in office, that’s a problem, Democrats are going to want to talk about abortion and Republicans want to talk about crime and the border,” he said.