The GOP’s inclusion of the TikTok ban is a secret weapon against Biden

Democrats are bracing for a backlash from young voters over the potential ban of TikTok on U.S. phones, something made more likely by the Chinese government’s opposition to ByteDance’s sale of one of the world’s most sophisticated algorithms.

It’s a problem for President Biden, who won 60 percent of voters ages 18 to 29 in the 2020 election but has seen his support fall to 45 percent among that key demographic, according to a recent poll. of Harvard Youth.

An NBC News poll published in November even showed former President Trump leading Biden among voters ages 18 to 34 nationwide, 46% to 42%.

Democratic strategists have attributed Biden’s difficulties with younger voters to the president’s age — 81 — and dissatisfaction with his handling of the war in Gaza, which has sparked protests on college campuses across the country.

Now, a potential TikTok ban could become another obstacle. While the ban won’t go into effect until Election Day, TikTok plans to fight it vigorously and has warned its devoted fan base that the popular app could disappear from their phones.

“A higher percentage of Americans under 30 oppose [the ban,],” said Stephen Weymouth, a professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.

“Unless political leaders here are more persuasive in convincing people of the benefits of this possible divestment/ban, I think this will be relatively unpopular at a time when the president needs the participation of younger voters,” he added. “That probably won’t help.”

Up to 170 million Americans use TikTok, and it is especially popular among younger people.

An Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll published earlier this year found that 73% of Americans who use TikTok daily oppose the ban.

A survey of 1,001 Americans conducted by CNBC last month found that 48% of people ages 18 to 34 opposed banning TikTok.

Another poll conducted by ClearPath Strategies found that 51 percent of Black voters, another key Democratic constituency, said they oppose the ban and view the app favorably.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (DN.Y.) this week blamed House Republicans for interfering with language that potentially banned TikTok from the $95 billion foreign aid package the Senate approved on Tuesday .

“Look, speaker [Mike] Johnson [R-La.] I put that in the bill, in the big supplemental bill, and we had to pass the supplemental bill as quickly as possible,” he told reporters when asked about a political reaction to the TikTok ban.

Republican strategists, however, say Biden will bear the brunt of any consequences because he signed the bill into law and relies more on young voters than Trump.

“The fact that more young voters are avoiding supporting President Biden, according to polls, doesn’t help him, doesn’t help the Biden administration,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist.

“I think it would have some kind of effect” on the election, he said. “It’s easy for younger people to understand that President Biden signed into law the ban on TikTok. Republicans can point this out to younger voters, but the national media will do the same.”

Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), who voted for the broader foreign aid package, warned Senate colleagues about the impact of the TikTok ban on younger voters.

“This could and likely will result in widespread censorship and this censorship would predominantly affect our country’s young people, many of whom are just gaining the right to vote,” he warned.

“Instead of protecting young people online, we censor their speech. And that is a serious mistake”, he argued.

A Republican strategist who requested anonymity noted that “Biden’s influence space, the Democrats’ influence space on TikTok is absolutely enormous.”

“This is why you see all the Democratic politicians, even if they say they support banning TikTok, they still use it,” the source said. “Especially among Senate Democrats, who say they support the ban but still use TikTok.”

The strategist noted that Texas Senate candidate Colin Allred, a Democratic member of the House, was criticized for posting multiple times on TikTok on the same day he voted to ban TikTok.

“Boooooooo, we voted for you. But you voted against us,” one of Allred’s followers fumed, according to The Texas Tribune.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had to answer tough questions this week about why the Biden campaign continues to use TikTok even though the president signed the new law requiring its Chinese owner to divest due to security concerns national.

“I’m going to let the campaigns decide for themselves what they’re going to do,” Sullivan told reporters when asked whether it’s safe for campaigns to continue using TikTok in light of allegations that the Chinese government has access to the app’s data.

“What we’re focused on right now in implementing the bill is working on this divestment in a way that is consistent with the intent of the law and consistent with the national security concerns that brought the law into effect in the first place,” Sullivan said. .

Lawmakers who supported the potential ban on TikTok have tried to frame it as simply forcing Chinese ownership to “divest,” but the Chinese government’s opposition to a sale makes a ban now seem more likely.

Under the law passed this week, ByteDance would have 270 days to sell TikTok to avoid a ban in the United States.

Experts are skeptical that ByteDance will sell TikTok, given a 2020 Chinese export control law that requires China’s government to approve the sale of algorithms and other cutting-edge technologies.

“The Chinese will try to block divestment. In 2020, they updated their export control rules to include restrictions on the sale of specific technologies, including algorithms, to foreign companies without government approval,” said Weymouth.

“This could lead to problems with the sale or divestment of TikTok because of course the algorithm is where the value of the company primarily lies,” he said.

Reuters reported on Thursday that ByteDance would opt to shut down TikTok in the United States rather than sell the app if it cannot defeat the legislation in court.

Darrell West, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution, however, noted that the ban would not take effect until well after the election.

“Voters will still have access to the app and candidates will use TikTok to win over young voters. The company has indicated that it will fight the ban in court, so it could take years for the legal issues to be resolved,” he said.

“There will be no specific harm to Biden because it was a large bipartisan vote that approved the ban,” he argued.

TikTok issued a statement calling “this TikTok ban law unconstitutional” and promising to fight it in the courts, something that would take months or even years.

“We believe that the facts and the law are clearly on our side and that we will ultimately prevail,” he said.

Bonjean, the political strategist, said that although the ban won’t go into effect until Election Day, TikTok will draw a lot of attention to it in the coming months as it tries to incite public opinion against the new law.

“This provides an opportunity for those who support TikTok to create more awareness that there is a significant possibility of the app disappearing,” he said. “This could be a long, sustained campaign by candidates on both sides of the aisle, along with corporate and grassroots supporters.”