Senate Republicans are warning New York Judge Juan Merchan not to sentence former President Trump to prison or house arrest or take any other action that could hinder the presumptive Republican nominee’s ability to campaign ahead of the midterm elections. November.
It could take months for Trump to appeal his conviction on 34 criminal charges related to falsifying business documents, and legal experts do not expect the conservative-leaning U.S. Supreme Court to step in to help him.
This means that Trump’s fate largely depends on Merchan, who can choose punishments ranging from prison and house arrest to probation and community service.
Merchan, who has received favorable reviews from legal experts for his careful handling of the case, will convict Trump on July 11, just days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Republican senators acknowledge that legal experts say it would be highly unusual for Trump to receive a prison sentence for a Class E felony and that he would most likely be allowed to remain free pending his appeal to higher state courts.
But they are nervous about what might happen because Merchan exercises a lot of discretion over the terms of the sentence and they feel he has tilted the judgment against the Trump team.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), senior member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said it would be a “further abuse of power” to incarcerate Trump or sentence him to house arrest.
“I’m very concerned about what I see in the way the courts have been weaponized,” he said. “There were once some institutions in America, namely the FBI, the Department of Justice and the courts, that were considered outside the bounds of open partisan politics, but unfortunately that has changed, and not for the better.”
Republican senators warn that any sentence that impacts Trump’s mobility or ability to communicate with voters could seriously undermine voters’ confidence in the fairness of the 2024 election.
Legal experts predict that Merchan will not sentence Trump to prison just before the convention, but some Republican lawmakers say that scenario is possible given what they have seen of the prosecution and trial so far.
Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) said it would be “foolish” for the judge to sentence Trump to prison or house arrest.
“But when you look at the conviction and the rules that he instructed the jury in, it’s completely unfair, it’s unconstitutional and I wouldn’t let anything get past him at this point,” he said of Merchan.
Budd said a harsh sentence “would only strengthen Americans’ resolve to support President Trump.
Judiciary Committee member Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) was certain that Trump would never be convicted by a Manhattan jury and now doesn’t know what to think about the prospect of the presumptive Republican presidential nominee ending up in prison before the day of the elections.
“With this process, anything is possible,” he said of prison time or home confinement.
Tillis said that if the judge restricts Trump’s ability to campaign, he will need to show that the sentence does not diverge from that of other defendants convicted of the same or similar crimes.
“Unless they can quickly find examples of similar cases that resulted in prison time, this just adds more fuel to the fire than it was. [District Attorney] Bragg’s politically motivated decision” to seek prison time, he said.
Trump was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records, a class E felony, and faces up to four years in prison on each count, although most legal experts say the judge could not sentence him to more than 20 years. of prison.
Trump’s legal team would strive to delay any sentencing until he completes his appeals, which would likely drag on beyond Election Day.
An analysis by Norm Eisen, senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution, found that only one in 10 cases of first-degree falsification of business records in New York resulted in an arrest. His findings were first published in the New York Times.
Some New York legal experts note, however, that Merchan, the judge, has a reputation for being tough on white-collar criminals.
Trump warned over the weekend that the public would reach a “breaking point” if he were arrested or confined to his home, acknowledging that “it could happen.”
“I think it would be difficult for the public to accept,” he said.
Tills said a harsh sentence could help Trump politically because it would further enrage his supporters.
“Now it appears he is actually being treated punitively by the courts,” he said of his time in prison. “For starters, it would really undermine the credibility of the case being made,” he said.
Some Republican senators predicted the Supreme Court would overturn any criminal conviction of Trump.
“I think ultimately everything will be reversed by the Supreme Court,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said last month. “I think a lot of these cases [will] work and the Supreme Court finally says enough is enough, we are not a banana republic.”
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), a member of the Judiciary Committee, predicted last year that “the ultimate outcome of any conviction of Donald Trump on this count would in all likelihood be a reversal at the U.S. Supreme Court.”
But legal experts say they do not expect the nation’s highest court to get involved in a state criminal matter, stressing that Trump’s conviction does not raise any obvious constitutional concerns.
“The most likely answer is that the Supreme Court will do nothing,” said Ilya Somin, a law professor at George Mason University whose research focuses on constitutional law.
“There is no procedure for a case like this to go directly from a state court to the Supreme Court, it simply doesn’t exist,” he said. “So far, at least, there isn’t really a question of federal law here. You can try to invent one, but that’s another hurdle to getting it to the Supreme Court.
“At the very least, I don’t think the federal Supreme Court will do anything unless and until this gets to the New York State Supreme Court or whatever the highest court in New York makes a decision,” he said.
Barbara McQuade, a law professor at the University of Michigan who specializes in criminal law and procedure and previously served as U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan, said there is no chance the U.S. Supreme Court will intervene to overturn Trump’s conviction or prevent a prison sentence before the elections.
“I don’t see any chance of the US Supreme Court intervening in Donald Trump’s conviction before the elections. He must exhaust his appeals in the New York State court system, which will take more than a year,” she said.
“Even then, the case would only reach the Supreme Court if there was a question of federal or constitutional law,” she noted.
But some Republican senators say the U.S. Supreme Court needs to get involved before Election Day.
“It would be unprecedented, but look at the response we’ve already seen with conviction, with fundraising numbers we’ve never seen before,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said of what the public response. will be putting Trump behind bars.
Asked about the role of the US Supreme Court, Daines said: “We should not allow a kangaroo court in New York to interfere in this election.”
“The people of America should be the jurists,” he said.
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), former chairman of the Judiciary Committee, said the Supreme Court does not need to get involved in Trump’s criminal case now, but argued it may be necessary if appeals threaten to drag on beyond the election.
“Not at this time,” he said of whether the U.S. Supreme Court needs to review the conviction. “It could be that if other appeals processes get stalled and can go beyond the election, you’ll get an answer as to whether this is fair or not, so I think there could be a reason for the Supreme Court to step in.”
Grassley said “everyone I’ve heard about this” thinks a prison sentence is highly unlikely given that this is Trump’s first criminal conviction.
But he thinks Trump could still win the election if he’s locked up on Rikers Island.
“It would probably help him get re-elected if he’s behind bars,” he said.
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
