Democrats are worried that President Biden’s dismal debate performance could doom whatever slim chance the party has of maintaining its Senate majority by further depressing turnout in battleground states.
Democrats were already in a difficult electoral situation, with Republicans needing only Montana or Ohio – in addition to their guaranteed victory in West Virginia – to occupy the upper house. Thursday’s debate debacle only makes the path for incumbents in red or purple states more treacherous.
“Last night was a bad night for the president and it was not a good night for the Democratic Party in general,” said John LaBombard, a former aide to former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. (I-Ariz.), and a Democratic strategist at ROKK Solutions “That certainly made it more difficult.
Biden’s performance — which featured a smooth, husky voice and meandering, sometimes unintelligible responses — is raising the possibility that Democratic Senate incumbents and candidates will have to conduct their operations independently of the top of the ticket.
“They are great candidates. They’re going to run their own races, as they should, in their states,” Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) told reporters at the Capitol on Friday.
Cardin, 80, who retires this year, admitted that the president had a “bad night” and that party members were looking for a “more energetic approach” during the event. However, he stood by his side.
Much of the attention remains focused on Sens. John Tester (Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio), two red-state Democrats whose races likely hold the key to a majority one way or another.
Despite the weak debate, several Democratic operatives argued that Biden’s numbers were weak enough in both states that the impact could be negligible. But candidates from other states may feel this more.
“Of course, it still doesn’t help to give unmotivated young people and black voters in Ohio more reason to stay unmotivated,” said a Democratic operative who worked on Senate races. “But I’m much more concerned if I’m a Democrat who doesn’t have an independent personal brand like Sherrod Brown does.”
For now, Senate campaigns are figuring out how to react to what could be a campaign-altering night, with some already trying to create more distance from the president. Campaign for Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) said in a statement that she is “running her own race for the people of Wisconsin” and originally declined to say whether she still supports Biden.
Brown told News5 Cleveland: “I focus on my race. I’m not an expert.”
Some strategists indicated they would know more next week, when the first internal polls are available, but expressed confidence that the senators’ independent brands will be able to hold out.
“It’s tough. Every good senator has a unique brand in these states and is going to need a unique answer about what he saw last night,” a second Democratic operative with experience in Senate races told The Hill. “And it should start with : ‘That wasn’t great.’”
“They can survive. There is a limit to the number of voters who connect the president with electoral candidates. … If Biden gets worse, maybe there will be a little change. It will not be restricted to [1 percentage point] regardless of what Joe Biden looks like,” the agent continued. “It’s not like people saw last night and thought, ‘I’m not a Democrat anymore.’ They said ‘Joe Biden doesn’t look great.’ They are different things.”
But it remains to be seen whether there will be an acute impact on key races.
Ahead of the midterm elections, some Democrats were reluctant to campaign with Biden, largely due to a lack of enthusiasm for him and his low approval rating.
Months before the 2022 election, then-Democratic Senate candidate Tim Ryan and then-Democratic gubernatorial candidate Nan Whaley skipped Biden’s event in his home state of Ohio. Both ended up losing their races. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) also distanced herself from Biden at the time and won his re-election bid.
After his performance in the debate, some candidates for the House and Senate may distance themselves from Biden again this cycle.
“Performance at the top of the ticket can significantly influence electoral disputes, acting as an obstacle or a boost. Last night, candidates from both parties faced challenges, but Biden’s difficulty in effectively making his case was unexpected and particularly troubling for Democrats,” said Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins, who was a senior adviser on the failed gubernatorial bid. of Democrat Charlie Crist in 2022 in Florida.
“If I am a low-poll candidate, I might consider distancing myself from Biden to mitigate any negative impact from his perceived weaknesses,” he said.
However, candidates, even in true blue states, also have a strong Democratic presidential candidate at the top of the ticket. This year, that includes Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, who faces former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in a race that would be a huge blow for Senate Democrats to lose.
Talk of removing Biden from the top of the ticket began almost immediately after the debate concluded, although for now the likelihood of that happening appears close to zero. The White House and Biden’s campaign rejected the idea on Friday, and top party leaders backed the president.
Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D.N.H.), whose term ends in 2027, said Boston-based WBUR that “there will be a lot of discussion” among Democrats “about what happens next.”
Biden on Friday, in his first rally since the debate, acknowledged that he doesn’t speak as well or debate as well as he once did, trying to ease concerns among Democrats about his debate.
And he nodded to the Democrats who stand by him despite his performance the night before.
“It’s good to know you’re supporting me,” Biden said as he opened his rally.
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
