President Biden’s allies seeking to push back on calls to remove him from the Democratic ticket are framing the debate within the Senate Democratic caucus as a choice between Biden and Vice President Harris, suggesting that Biden remains the safest bet.
These Biden supporters claim that Harris would almost certainly be Biden’s replacement if he decided not to run for re-election.
But they argue that she is no safer bet to win than Biden, especially in the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, despite Biden’s own political weaknesses and vulnerabilities.
In fact, it’s not entirely clear whether Harris would be a lock to replace Biden if he decided not to run, although she would have several key advantages in any fast-track selection process and would be seen as the front-runner.
But in deciding between Biden and Harris, Democratic lawmakers are privately trying to convince their skeptical colleagues to side with the 81-year-old president, warts and all.
A Democratic senator who strongly supports Biden’s reelection bid said Harris would undoubtedly win the nomination if Biden stepped aside, even if party officials staged a hasty contest to pick a new candidate.
“How are you going to ignore the first vice president who is a woman of color,” the lawmaker asked, echoing an argument other Democratic strategists have made since Biden’s disastrous July 27 debate.
A Democratic strategist who argues that Biden can still defeat former President Trump said “it is 99 percent guaranteed that it will be Kamala Harris” who becomes the nominee if Biden drops his re-election bid.
“I think it is very difficult for our structure to deny the vice president, who happens to be a black woman, an opportunity to represent the party,” said the strategist. “I just don’t think it’s going to happen, they’re going to ignore it.
“So the question is can it be better in these six states,” the agent added, referring to the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Democratic senators supporting Biden have made similar arguments to colleagues in private conversations about the possibility of switching to a new candidate, according to sources familiar with those conversations.
A national poll from the Democratic firm Bendixen & Amandi released to Politico this week showed that Harris fared better against Trump than Biden. In the poll, Biden trailed Trump, 42% to 43%, while Harris led Trump, 42% to 41%.
Biden’s own campaign reportedly did discreet research into Harris’ strength as a candidate in a head-to-head matchup against Trump. But some Democratic lawmakers and strategists suspect this is being done to show that Biden is a safer bet than Harris to defeat Trump in November.
There were no signs of calm between Biden and Harris amid the political drama surrounding the White House.
Harris has insisted that Biden will be the nominee, while Biden himself praised Harris at his press conference on Thursday as “the most qualified person” after him to run for president, and praised her leadership in protecting women’s rights to make their own decisions. medical decisions. including on abortion, a major issue in this year’s race.
Senate Democrats up for re-election this year have refused to talk about Harris as a potential candidate, given the drama swirling around Biden.
“That’s an issue I really don’t want to address,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said when asked if the vice president would be a “viable” candidate for the top job.
Biden’s allies have painted any mini-convention or other competition to find a new candidate as something that would almost certainly result with Harris at the top of the ticket in November.
But Democratic lawmakers who are deeply skeptical about Biden’s chances of defeating Trump have pushed back, arguing that other potential candidates would have the opportunity to make their cases to party delegates before they vote at the convention in Chicago next month.
“Given the complexities of selecting a replacement, this is a huge task,” said one Democratic senator, but argued that if it’s clear Biden can’t win, “you try something else.”
Democratic strategist Steve Jardining argued that Harris or another new nominee would have an advantage in the general election because “she would at least have a chance to define herself,” while voters’ opinions of Biden are unlikely to change in the coming months.
Jim Kessler, executive vice president of policy at Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, argued that Harris would be a strong candidate.
“I think she would be in charge of getting the nomination,” he said. “It wouldn’t be a coronation for Vice President Harris, but she would be the strong favorite to win the nomination.”
“I think she is a much stronger national political figure than when she was named vice president,” he added. “She’s done a great job publicly over the last few months where there’s been a lot more scrutiny.”
Harris has a series of advantages to guarantee the nomination if Biden withdraws.
She would have immediate access to the more than $240 million the Biden-Harris campaign reported in cash on hand at the end of June. And Democratic strategists assume that many of the 3,894 delegates now pledged to Biden would flow to her as his running mate and partner over the past four years.
“I have no doubt that Republicans would seek to choose [Harris’s record] separate. She would have to argue that she is a Biden-style Democrat. Every candidate would have challenges, these would be hers,” Kessler added.
At the same time, Harris would bring some political advantage that those involved in the congressional debates over Biden are familiar with.
Harris struggled to define her views on health care during the 2020 election, when she pledged support for Medicare-for-all but then stumbled on the question of whether that would entail eliminating private health insurance.
She also supported publicly funded health care for immigrants in the country illegally in the 2020 Democratic primary, something Biden also signaled he would support as he fought for liberal voters before securing the nomination.
“I oppose any policy in our country that denies any human being access to public safety, public education, or public health care,” she told CNN’s Jake Tapper in 2019, a statement that Republicans are sure to resurface. if she becomes the nominee. .
Jardining said the truth is “we don’t know how good” Harris would be as a nominee. He said those who suggest she would be the ultimate nominee if Biden drops out — and a weaker candidate — are looking for an excuse.
“People complain and say, ‘She didn’t do much as vice president.’ Who the hell does much as vice president? Very few do. I think it’s an excuse because they have no other excuse,” Jardining added of Biden’s allies wanting to shift the focus to Harris’ potential weaknesses.
“It doesn’t help the party to say, ‘Well, I don’t know if [Biden] might win, but man, Harris can’t win and we know we’d lose even more, so let’s go with Biden. That’s a false narrative,” he said.
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
