President Biden trails former President Trump within the margin of error in Virginia, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll released Thursday.
The poll found that 45% of Virginia voters said they support Trump, while 43% support Biden. Eleven percent of voters said they were undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus three points.
“In a state that Biden won by 10 points in 2020, the president is now essentially tied with Trump,” said Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball. “Independent voters break for Trump, 46% to 38%, a group that broke for Biden in 2020 by double digits.”
The poll found that when third-party candidates are considered, Trump leads Biden 43% to 38%.
But the same poll found that Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.) led his Republican opponent, Hung Cao, by 10 points — 49% to 39%. This reflects a broader trend in swing states in which Democratic Senate incumbents have performed better than Biden.
Thursday’s poll comes as other recent polls show Biden facing a tight race in the Old Dominion. A Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday showed Biden ahead of Trump by five points, 47 to 42 percent.
Meanwhile, a Virginia Commonwealth University poll released on Monday showed Trump leading Biden by three points in Virginia, while a New York Times-Siena College poll released the same day showed Biden leading Trump by three points in Commonwealth.
Republicans say they are feeling increasingly optimistic about their chances in Virginia, which has not gone Republican at the presidential level since 2004. Trump has notably chosen the Hampton Roads area, one of the state’s most swinging regions, as his rally site. your post-debate. rally last month, where he appeared with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).
The Republican Party has pointed to Youngkin’s 2021 victory as a potential model for Trump in the state. But Virginia Democrats have had significant electoral successes in the 2022 midterm elections and the 2023 state legislative elections.
The same Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll showed Youngkin with a 46% approval rating and a 38% disapproval rating. Biden holds a 37% approval rating and a 53% disapproval rating.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted July 13-15 among 1,000 registered voters in Virginia.
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