What to know about air turbulence before your next flight

Customers may need to prepare for increased air turbulence while flying, as severe thunderstorms and stronger jet streams driven by climate change could make bumpy rides more frequent.

A flight bound for Singapore was forced to divert on Monday after experiencing severe turbulence in the Andaman Sea, causing dozens of injuries and one death during the flight. The recent incident has raised questions about whether more severe turbulence can be expected if the jet streams grow stronger.

Here’s what you should know about how climate change and severe weather can affect your flight.

What is turbulence and what causes it?

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) defines turbulence as “air movement created by atmospheric pressure, jet streams, air around mountains, cold or warm weather fronts, or thunderstorms.”

There is also “clear air turbulence,” which the National Weather Service describes as occurring at about 15,000 feet when there are no cumuliform clouds, a common type of cloud that typically resembles cotton balls and includes both fair-weather and thunderstorm varieties. .

The National Weather Service identifies four types of turbulence: mild, moderate, severe and extreme. Light and moderate turbulence may cause passengers to feel tension in their seat belts and some unsecured objects may move. Severe and extreme turbulence can cause passengers to be violently forced against their seat belts.

Larry Cornman, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said turbulence is “the natural state of the atmosphere,” adding that people typically don’t notice it because the planes they travel on are so large.

“Now, there are certain conditions under which there is enough motion and energy in the atmosphere to move an aircraft or, as we saw the other day, move it a lot,” he said in an interview.

What caused the turbulence on the Singapore Airlines flight?

It remains unclear what type of turbulence may have impacted the Singapore Airlines flight as authorities begin to investigate the incident.

Jonathan Porter, senior vice president and chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said his initial analysis of the flight suggests that an “explosive” thunderstorm could have triggered the severe turbulence.

“We reviewed high-resolution satellite images. And the storms that were developing in this area were intensifying remarkably very quickly, and it seems like one of those situations where there could be these updrafts occurring and very little awareness of how quickly it’s developing,” he said in an interview. .

“This shows once again how dangerous storms can be for aviation,” he added.

He said that while the plane was flying at an altitude of about 37,000 feet, a storm appeared to be developing quickly below it. Because the aircraft was flying at such a high altitude, the pilots likely were unable to detect the storm using onboard radar, he said.

Porter said the storm could cause an updraft of air in the atmosphere that could cause turbulence.

“And that air sometimes rises rapidly at over 100 miles per hour in that updraft, and that gives the pilot very little time, very little to no time to react. And that can result in these sudden turbulence issues,” he said.

Cornman said the incident occurred within seconds, describing it as a “very restricted event.”

“You put all this energy into a very short, small space and time, that energy goes somewhere and goes into the wind, and it moves the aircraft dramatically,” he said.

Does climate change affect turbulence?

Some research has shown that clear-air turbulence may be increasing due to climate change.

Research from the University of Reading last year found that severe air turbulence increased by 55 percent between 1979 and 2020. The increase in turbulence is “consistent with the effects of climate change,” researchers found.

“After a decade of research showing that climate change will increase clear-sky turbulence in the future, we now have evidence to suggest that the increase has already begun,” said Paul Williams, co-author of the study. at the time.

Porter said clear air turbulence is caused by wind currents, which “can flow faster as the atmosphere warms.”

Jet streams are bands of strong winds in the upper atmosphere. Some research suggests which are strengthening as climate changes, which could make flights faster but also subject to more potential turbulence.

“There is yet another temperature gradient established in the atmosphere. And this can result in greater wind currents, which can lead to a greater incidence of clear air turbulence,” Porter added.

How can turbulence be predicted?

Jennifer Stroozas, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Aviation Weather Center, said the center focuses on making full-atmosphere weather forecasts that pilots can use to navigate severe weather and turbulence.

“So if we know that the jet stream is at a certain altitude in the sky, we will provide that specific information in a forecast, a warning, or an advisory, because sometimes that is useful information about where they can find a smoother ride.” , she said in an interview.

The Aviation Meteorological Center provides warnings and forecasts for potentially dangerous weather conditions for aircraft. Stroozas noted that measuring turbulence can be “a little subjective” because larger planes are affected differently than smaller planes.

She said the center relies on pilot reports, as well as models of the atmosphere and conditions, to measure turbulence. She also noted that the center keeps an eye on storms and other potential weather hazards that could affect aviation.

How can you stay safe on flights?

Deaths and serious injuries due to flight turbulence remain rare. The FAA reported 163 serious injuries related to turbulence between 2009 and 2022, according to your data.

The FAA urges everyone to keep their seat belts fastened during flight to avoid turbulence-related injuries. The Association of Flight Attendants also issued a statement following the Singapore Airlines incident to urge passengers to follow crew instructions.

“As our climate changes, cases of severe and clear atmospheric turbulence are increasing. Always follow the crew’s instructions and wear your seat belt whenever you are seated.

This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story