NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Torrential rains and deadly floods that hit Kenya since March they have been some of the most catastrophic in the country in recent years.
At least 169 people have died due to heavy rains, and more than 91 are missing, according to the latest government figures.
In the most tragic event, at least 48 people were killed on Monday after water rushed through a blocked river tunnel under a railway bridge in southwestern Kenya, causing flash flooding. The rain displaced more than 100,000 people and damaged roads and other infrastructure.
The devastating rains are the result of a combination of factors, including the country’s seasonal weather patterns, human-caused climate change, as well as natural weather phenomena.
See how they combined to create the deadly flood.
WHAT IS THE “LONG RAIN” SEASON IN KENYA?
Kenya and some other parts of East Africa two main periods of rain: the “long rains” season from March to May, and the “short rains” season from October to December.
The “long rainy” season is when most of the country’s average annual precipitation occurs. It is often characterized by torrential rain and sometimes lasts until June.
In your prediction For this year’s “long rains” season, the Kenya Meteorological Department has predicted above-average rainfall in many parts of the country, with occasional thunderstorms in some. It also warned of flash floods, mudslides, landslides and other impacts.
Last year’s “short rains” season was characterized by strong storms in many parts of the country, particularly in November. Lamu, Mombasa and Garissa counties received almost three times the long-term average rainfall, according to the meteorological department.
WHY IS THE RAIN SO INTENSE THIS TIME?
The frequency, patterns and intensity of rainfall in Kenya are influenced by natural climate systems such as the Indian Ocean Dipole.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is an oscillation in sea surface temperatures that makes the western Indian Ocean warmer than average and then cooler than average than the eastern Indian Ocean. It has positive, neutral and negative phases.
The positive phase causes heavy rains in areas west of the Indian Ocean, such as Kenya, and droughts in Indonesia and Australia.
Although many people have associated the current floods with the natural climate phenomenon El Nino, research shows that the weather event has little influence on rainfall in East Africa during the “long rainy” season, said Joyce Kimutai, a research associate at Imperial College London.
El Nino is ocean warming over the Pacific Ocean that alters storm tracks and can cause heavy rains in some parts of the world and droughts in others.
But in the case of Kenya, it is highly likely that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and climate change explain the continuous rains that induce flooding, she said.
Warmer oceans caused by the warmer atmosphere increase evaporation, and air that holds more moisture can produce more intense rainfall.
In an analysis In December last year, Kimutai and colleagues at World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists looking at whether climate change has played a role in extreme weather, find something Human-caused climate change made last year’s “short rains” season in Kenya and other parts of East Africa up to twice as intense.
WHEN WILL THE “LONG RAIN” END?
It has become difficult to predict the long-term climate in Kenya in recent years, as the onset and length of the dry and wet seasons increasingly change.
The Kenya Meteorological Department wait the “prolonged rain” season will continue until June.
In your latest seven-day weather forecastreleased on Monday, the department said it expects rain to continue in several parts of the country, with heavy rain likely to occur in six regions, as well as flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on steep slopes.
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