Most of us have experienced turbulence while traveling: when your plane flies through conflicting bodies of air, moving at very different speeds.
Severe turbulence can make even the most experienced aviator nervous and make five minutes seem like an eternity. Typically this results in nothing more than a bumpy ride, but in the worst cases it can cause damage, injury and – in the case of Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 on May 21 – fatality.
In non-fatal accidents, turbulence is the leading cause of injuries to flight attendants and passengers, according to the Federal Aviation Administrationand is one of the most common types of plane crashes today, according to the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board. It costs U.S. airlines — through injuries, delays and damage — up to $500 million a year, according to the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
“There is a scale to measure how strong turbulence is,” Paul Williams, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, told CNN in 2022. “There is light turbulence, which puts a little bit of pressure on the seat belt. , but food service can continue and you will probably be able to walk around the cabin, perhaps with some difficulty.
“Then there is moderate turbulence, a definite strain on the seat belts, anything that is not secure will be dislodged and walking is difficult; flight attendants are usually instructed to take their seats.
“The worst kind is severe turbulence: it’s stronger than gravity, so it can pin you to the seat and, if you’re not wearing a seatbelt, you’ll be thrown into the cabin. This is the type of turbulence that causes serious injuries – it has been known to break bones, for example.”
Attacks quickly and without visual cues
About 65,000 aircraft experience moderate turbulence every year in the U.S. and about 5,500 experience severe turbulence. These numbers, however, may be destined to grow. Williams believes climate change is modifying turbulence and began studying the issue in 2013. “We did some computer simulations and found that severe turbulence could double or triple in the coming decades,” he says.
The findings, which were later confirmed by observations, highlight a type of turbulence called “clear air turbulence,” which is not linked to any visual cues such as thunderstorms or clouds. Unlike normal turbulence, it occurs suddenly and is difficult to avoid.
According to the NTSB, between 2009 and 2018, flight crews received no warning in about 28% of turbulence-related accidents. Williams’ analysis predicts that clear-sky turbulence will increase significantly around the world in the period 2050-2080, in particular along the busiest flight paths, and the strongest type of turbulence will increase the most.
This does not mean, however, that flying will be any less safe. “Planes are not going to start falling out of the sky, because aircraft are built to very high specifications and can withstand the worst turbulence they can expect to encounter, even in the future,” says Williams.
However, the average duration of turbulence will increase. “Normally, on a transatlantic flight, we can expect 10 minutes of turbulence. I think that within a few decades this could increase to 20 minutes or half an hour. The seat belt sign will be lit much brighter, unfortunately for passengers.”
The seat belt sign is now on
Keeping your seat belt fastened at all times while seated is the best way to minimize the risk of injury due to turbulence.
Flight attendants, however, are more at risk than passengers and suffer approximately 80% of all turbulence-related injuries. “We are more likely to get injured because we are working, pushing 300-pound carts, even when there is some kind of warning,” said Sara Nelson, a United flight attendant with more than two decades of experience and president of the Association of Flight Attendants. Bordo, a union representing 50,000 flight attendants at 20 airlines, told CNN in 2022.
“We have flight attendants who have been thrown to the ceiling and then fallen several times, resulting in broken limbs. In the corridor, with unannounced turbulence, we had people who lost toes, or lost the ability to work, or suffered injuries that kept them away from work for years”, he adds.
The aviation industry is taking the problem very seriously, Nelson says, but the transition to sustainable fuels must be accelerated to address the climate crisis, and some regulations need to be changed. For example, the possibility of children under two years of age flying on their parents’ lap.
“This is completely unsafe and our union has been asking for a seat for every person on board,” says Nelson. “Not only can a child be thrown through the cabin, but when they fall, they can also hurt someone else. When a child is born, you cannot leave the hospital unless you have a properly installed car seat. The same standards must be applied to flying.”
Calls for strict new rules
The NTSB held a public meeting on turbulence in 2021, during which it offered the same recommendation, along with stricter rules on the use of seat belts for passengers and flight attendants when aircraft are flying near thunderstorms and below 20,000 feet. , as most injuries occur in these conditions. It also recommended streamlining systems for collecting and sharing turbulence reports, because that information isn’t traveling widely or quickly enough right now.
Although the effects of climate change on turbulence will take many years to become obvious, Nelson believes that some worsening has already occurred.
“Of course this is anecdotal, but since Hurricane Katrina there appears to have been an increase in turbulence activity, especially turbulence that appears without warning,” she says.
His worst turbulence experience occurred during a flight to Dallas, which ended up being diverted.
“When something happens on the plane, passengers look at us to see if we look worried,” he adds. “I was flying with a good friend of mine and we were strapped into the jump seats, facing the back of the aircraft – so there was a toilet in front of us, instead of passengers.
“Thank God, because we were hugging each other and being thrown into our seats so violently that it felt like our brains were scrambled. This went on for a long time, but fortunately we reached the ground safely,” she says.
“Normally I’m not afraid of turbulence, because it’s something we learn in training and we know what to do to protect ourselves. But it’s possible to have turbulence so bad and last so long that even knowing all this, my friend and I were praying – and I have to say I was scared for my life.”
This story was originally published in September 2022. It was updated and republished in May 2024.
For more news and newsletters from CNN, create an account at CNN.com
