In the biggest hurricane season forecast ever released in May, forecasters at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that the next few months could be exceptionally busy.
“The forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest ever issued by NOAA for the May outlook,” agency administrator Rick Spinrad said at a news conference. “This season looks to be extraordinary in many ways.”
NOAA predict eight for 13 hurricanesand 17 to 25 named storms. Storms get names when wind speeds reach 39 mph or more.
Given near-record heat across much of the Atlantic Ocean and a strong likelihood of La Niña conditions, forecasters said there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season along the Atlantic coast.
NOAA is far from alone in making such a prediction.
Almost all public, private and government hurricane forecasting services are expecting a peak hurricane season and named storms, according to a website operated by Colorado State University and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, which tracks predictions each year. The site aggregated early hurricane forecasts from 23 centers.
NOAA’s forecast is in line with the aggregate. On average, the services predicted 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes (the designation given to storms that reach Category 3 or higher based on wind speed).
“As far as the number of storms goes, this would be the third largest on record,” said Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in seasonal hurricane forecasts in the Atlantic basin.
It’s unusual to see record sea surface temperatures and a strong chance of La Niña — a natural weather pattern associated with hurricanes — coincide. The combination reinforces meteorologists’ confidence that this season could be significant.
“Last year was an interesting season. It was this clash of the Titans. The Atlantic was stupidly hot like it is now, but it had a strong El Niño, which would bring down its big storms,” said Klotzbach.
But this year, “the Atlantic is still superheated and El Niño has disappeared, so everything is heading in the same direction,” he added.
The high forecast does not necessarily mean that a strong hurricane will hit the US coast
“We have no idea where the storms will go, but in general, when you throw too many darts at the board, one of them will start to stick,” Klotzbach said.
Record sea surface temperatures can also fuel rapid intensification, a phenomenon in which hurricane winds suddenly increase as the storm approaches the coast, according to Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami.
“We are certainly in uncharted territory. As someone who lives on a pretty hurricane-prone part of the coast, I’m not super excited about this,” he said.
This article was originally published in NBCNews. with
